February 2013 ~ Alpha Advisory

Thursday, February 28, 2013

India Budget FY 2013-14: Highlights

12:53 PM

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--Duty free limit for Gold raised to Rs. 50,000 in case of a male passenger and Rs. 1 lakh for female passengers.
--One-time Amnesty Scheme for service tax due from 2007: FM
--To set aside '9,000 cr as compensation to states for CST: FM
--To impose service tax on all AC restaurants: FM
--Nirbhaya Fund for women safety
--Royalty tax hiked from 10% to 25%.
--Transactions on immovable properties are usually undervalued. This justifying his move of imposing TDS of 1% on land deals over Rs 50 lakh.
--High-end smart phones to get more expensive.
--SMEs allowed to listed on MSME exchange without making a public offer
--SED on cigarettes hiked by 18%; cigars and cheerots too

--Custom duty on imported motor vehicles hiked
--To up import duty on set-top boxes to 10% from 5%
--To up import duty on luxury cars to 100% from 75%: FM
--Coal blending only solution
--FY2013-14 non plan expenditure at Rs 12 lakh crore
--TDS at 0.1% of land deals over '50 lakh: FM
--To reduce STT on equity futures, MF units: FM
--CTT to be introduced in non-agri commodities in futures @0.01%
--Extend 80IA by 1 year: FM
--Tax holiday for power plants extended to March 2014: FM
--DDT surchage raised to 10% from 5%
--No room to give away tax sops
--5-10% surchage on companies with income over 10 cr
--To continue with education cess of 3%
--No case to revise direct tax rates, slabs: FM
--Revenue deficit at 3.9% for FY13: FM
--10% surcharge on people whose taxable income above Rs 1 cr per year
--FY 14 Fiscal deficit at 4.8%; revenue deficit at 3.3%
--Youth skill development gets Rs.1000 cr
--Plan expenditure for FY14 at 5.55 lakh crores
--294 more cities to be connected by FM Radio
--Rs 1000 cr for ensuring safety and dignity of women
--FIIs may hedge forex exposure through ETFs
-- Defence allocation has been increased to Rs 236000 crore in the upcoming fiscal, marginally up from Rs 195000 crore this year.
--Aligarh, Varanasi universities get Rs 100 crore.

--Rs 6275 crore to Ministry of Technology, Rs 5216 crore to Department of Space, Rs 5280 crore to Department of Energy. These amounts are substantial increases.
--Generation based incentives for wind energy projects
--Low cost finance provided for viable renewable energy projects
--To expand private FM radio to 294 cities
--Chennai- Bengaluru Industrial corridor: DIPP and Japan's JICA preparing plan
--Power transmission system from Srinagar to Leh; Rs 226 crore provided in current Budget
--839 new fm channels to be auctioned
--Low cost finance provided for viable renewable energy projects

--Generation based incentives for wind energy projects
--Insurance, pension companies can trade directly in debt segment in stock exchanges
--Pension, insurance funds can invest in ETFs
--6275 cr for ministry of science and technology
--Govt plans to spend Rs 16.65 lakh crore for the coming fiscal year
--FIIs to be allowed in currency derivatives segment
--SEBI to simplify procedures for FIIs, unify categories for FIIs
--Rs 2000 crore for Urban Housing fund

--Regulatory authority for the road sector
-- Dedicated debt section in Stock exchagnes
--KYC of banks sufficient to acquire insurance policies
--Insurance firms to open branches in tier iii cities with out IRDA approval
--Rs 2000 cr for urban housing fund

--Social security package for unorganised sector
--Congratules SEBI for regulation of markets

--14,000 crore for capital infusion for public sector banks
--Social security package for unorganised sector
--Banks to be permitted to act as insurance brokers
--By Oct 2013 to get approval to constitute panel on transaction costs, financial policies

--India's first woman's bank as public sector bank; Rs 1000 cr as initial capital
--Bank for women
--Rs 14,000 cr to public sector banks for additional cppital infusion to meet BASEL III requirements by March 2014
--Public sector banks: 12517 cr - addl capital for banks by March 2013
--Rs 500 cr to SIDBI to act as guarantee to a factoring fund
--Rs 24,000 cr for textile technology upgradation
--Additional 96 cr in 2013-14 for ministry of textiles for Interest Subvention
--Handloom sector is in distress--- working capital -term loans - concessional rate of 6%
--To increase refinancing of SIDBI to help MSME
--Funds to tech incubators by corporates will be considered as CSR expenditure
--Natural Gas pricing policy to be reviewed
--To issue inflation indexed bonds/certificates
--Housing loans upt ot Rs 25 lakh to be allowed additional deduction of Rs 1 lakh

--PPP policy with Coal India as partner to increase coal production
--Worry about coal imports; will rise to 185 mn tons in 2016-17; We must reduce dependence on imported coal
--Some companies can issue tax free bonds upto Rs 50,000 cr for infra
--To raise Rs 25,000 cr via tax-free bonds in FY 13:FM
--Rs 5000 cr to be made available to NABARD to finance agri-produce storage
--3000 km of road projects will be awarded in first six months of FY14
--Inflation Indexed bonds to be introduced to wean people's savings away from gold
--Tax benefit in RGESS for 3 years

--In mutual funds, listed stocks, Rs 10-lakh to 12 lakh income limit
--Rajiv Gandhi Equity Savings Scheme to be liberalised
--Rs 10,000 cr additional for food security bill in FY 2014
--Infra debt funds for investment in infrastructure
--55 lakh cr for infrastructure in the 12 th plan

--4% farm loan scheme extended to private sector banks
--NABARD to give funds to build godowns, warehouses and cold-storage
--Rs 27049 Cr for Ministry of Agriculture, 22% Y-oY
--Rs 250 crore given away to Food security mission
--Coconut rejuvenatiion scheme Rs 75 cr to be extended all over Kerala
--Farm credit target at Rs 7 lakh crore

**FM: India's excessive dependence on gold very worrying.
**Economic space constrains due to high fiscal deficit, lower savings and investment and tight monetary policy
**Average economic growth rate in 11th Plan period is 8 per cent, highest ever in any Plan period
**There is no reason for gloom or pessimism
**Indonesia and China growing faster than India

--India not unaffected by what is happening in the global economy, says Chidambaram
--China, Indonesia: Only the two economies growing faster than India
--No reason for gloom or pessimissm, asserts Chidambaram
--Greater worries on CAD
--Excessive import of gold, oil, slowing of exports a concern
--$75 bn to finance CAD-- FDI, FII, external commerical borrowing the options
--Says opening up economy is a must to contain CAD
--Battle against inflation should be fought on all fronts
--Food inflation is worrying
--Steps to augment the supply side for food
--India econom has experienced slowdown after 2010
--Plan expenditure in 2013-14 to go up 29%
--Budget to create opportunities for youth, to give them decent jobs, income, safety, security of households
--Adequate funds to benefit women, children and minorities
--Total expenditure is 96% of the earlier budgeted expenditure
--FY 2013-14 total expenditure at Rs 16.65 lakh crores
--Foreign investment instrumental in tackling CAD

--Rs 13215 cr for mid-day meal scheme
--Clean Drinking water Rs 15, 260 cr
--JNNURM- continued in 12 th plan- Rs 14873 cr,
--10000 buses to be purchesed esp by Hill states
--Rs 33,000 cr allocation for MGNREGS

--46% hike in Rural Development Spending
--Rs 500 crore for crop diversification projects
--Budget presentation begins
10.52 AM: India's cabinet clears the budget
10.46 AM: Chidambaram arrives at the Parliament to present the budget.
10.37 AM: India's Finance Minister P.Chidambaram has left his office to present the budget.

12:51 PM

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10:59 AM

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According to Associated Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ASSOCHAM),"the Indian industry is holding its breath anxious whether it will face any new taxes at a time when the economy instead needs a booster dose for growth, an ASSOCHAM quick poll indicated."
“Tax revenues are not likely to show big rise in the wake of modest economic expansion. The only option before the government is to cut expenditures to get back to the fiscal discipline over which there are no choices available,” said the poll report.
Meanwhile the commodity futures industry and the Ministry for Food and Consumer Affairs have raised concerns over possible announcement of Commodity Transaction Tax (CTT) on the lines of Security Transaction Tax (STT) which is likely to cause trade volumes to fall in a yet to mature futures market.
Meanwhile, the Economic Survey presented on Wednesday has addressed key concerns of the economy and the need to curb imports of crude oll and gold to contian the current account defict.
"The Survey highlights the current account deficit as one of the key concerns in the economy and it has acknowledged that there is limited room to increase exports in the near term. The CAD has widened to 4.6% in the first half of the fiscal year and we expect it touch almost 5% for FY2013, so we believe that attracting capital inflows in the economy is pertinent to finance the CAD. In this context, the Survey has rightly observes that long term and stable capital inflows should be accorded priority to minimize the reversal of capital in risk-off phases," according to Dinesh Thakkar, Chairman and Managing Director of Angel Broking.
"Another key concern in the economy is that the savings rate has decelerated dramatically to 30.8% from its peak level of 36.8% in FY2008. The high preference of households for savings in non productive physical assets like gold is also adding to pressure on the already burgeoning trade and current account deficit. In this regard, the forthcoming budget can take some steps to boost savings in financial assets, and thus discourage demand for gold, by increasing the tax saving deduction limit in investment instruments such as ELSS, equities, longer-duration fixed deposits, tax-free bonds etc.”

Meanwhile, Chandrajit Banerjee, Director General of Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has said that the Finance Minister should avoid taxing the super rich and on the revenue side government can increase the tax base and set the path for implementation of Goods and Services Tax apartment from accelerating disinvestment in public sector undertakings.

10:58 AM

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The downtrend seen in the market in the past one month suggests that traders are bracing for the budget with low expectations.

Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services Ltd.

BSE

22.70

0.20 (0.89%)

Vol:1083 shares traded

NSE

22.60

0.05 (0.22%)

Vol:17067 shares traded

Prices|Financials|Company Info|Reports

MUMBAI: Volatility in the Indian market is likely to remain high in trade today as Finance Minister P Chidambaram presents the Union Budget and at the same time traders will square off open positions on the last day of February series.

The last two sessions of trade have seen sharp movements on the benchmarks while the midcaps were battered down badly on pledged shares concerns.

According to analysts, in the short term, the budget is likely to move the markets in one way or the other. The downtrend seen in the market in the past one month suggests that traders are bracing for the budget with low expectations and thus chances of disappointment are low.

However, there are a few key things that the market will be keenly watching out for and will decide the course of the market.

"The borrowing number that the government puts out is a big factor that will determine interest rates and eventually even markets. Lower deficit achieved by indiscriminately cutting planned expenditure or development expenditure is not something that we are too happy about," said Apurva Shah, Head Investment Research, BNP Paribas BSE 0.89 %.

"What we are looking for is reduction in wasteful expenditure like a lot of subsidies, increasing revenues, not by way of high taxes, but by way of better collections and through non-tax revenues," he added.

Meanwhile, the charts are indicating bearish trend and chances of correction are higher given weak global markets. If the correction in global markets continues, then in days to come even the good budget will be ignored and the market will go down.

"It is not a smart idea to stand in front of an event and trade futures because the problem is a good budget could take the market higher by say about 80 to 100 points," said Ashwani Gujral, Fund Manager, ashwanigujral.com.

"In case of a good budget we will probably pop up and then go down. In case of a bad budget we will go down straightaway, but clearly the patterns are still not comforting as long as we are below 5,840-5,850," Gujral added.

He is of the view that chances of downside are higher and it needs to be seen what happens on the global shores.

"I would ignore tomorrow's action and move with the global trends which for the moment seems to be weak. Unless global correction is diluted, I do not think we will be able to close above 5,900. If Nifty closes above these levels then we can conclude the correction is over, but till that time the pressure remains on the downside," he added.

Mitesh Thacker, Technical Analyst, miteshthacker.com is of the view that 5,845 to about 5,870 are two important points to watch out for.

"From short term perspective, we have been extremely oversold. There is an event which has a 50-50 chance to influence the markets positively in the short term. If the Nifty was to go higher, my sense is that 5,845 to about 5,870 are two important points which I am watching on the short term charts," Thacker said.

10:57 AM

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10:48 AM

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Gold demand jumps on fears of higher import duty

6:45 PM

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2:49 PM

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Reassurance from the U.S. Federal Reserve about its stimulus program helped stabilize the euro and European shares on Wednesday, as Italy prepared to test the reaction to its inconclusive election in the bond market.
Italy will auction up to 6.5 billion euros of new 5- and 10-year bonds at around 1000 GMT after gridlocked elections reignited fears about the euro zone debt crisis.
"Markets have started to price in risks of ungovernability of the country in the coming months, with possible domino effects on the rest of the euro area," said Newedge economist Annalisa Piazza.
"Political instability is expected to prevail ...and even a grand coalition government would be seen only as a temporary option, probably not able to continue the so-much needed reforms process."
Having fallen sharply on Tuesday following the Italian stalemate, European shares .FTEU3 rebounded 0.4 percent as trading resumed with 0.8 percent rises in Milan's FTSE MIB .FTMIB and Spain's IBEX .IBEX the leading the gains.
The mood was helped after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke defended the U.S. central bank's monetary stimulus on Tuesday, easing financial market worries over a possible early retreat from bond purchases.
The euro also regained ground, rising 0.2 percent to $1.3085 having hit a seven-week low of $1.3017 on Tuesday.
In the bond market Italian yields, which rise as prices fall, inched up again, while German government bonds , a favourite of risk-adverse investors, also added to this week's hefty gains. <GVD/EUR>
"Italy remains the centre of attention and I can't see it getting any better," one trader said. "Supply will be the main focus and ... it could be a bit of a problem."

2:47 PM

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1:58 PM

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1:56 PM

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The dollar eased against the euro on Wednesday as investors took fears related to the Italian political situation in stride, and after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said he backed the central bank’s asset-purchase program.

The ICE dollar index DXY -0.16% , which measures the greenback’s performance against six major global currencies, slipped to 81.788 by late afternoon in Tokyo from 81.948 in North America Wednesday.

The WSJ dollar index XX:BUXX -0.13% , a gauge of the currency’s moves versus a slightly wider basket of rival units, slipped to 72.63 from 72.70.

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Bernanke faces opposition on inflation record

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke was forced to vigorously defend his inflation record in day one of his two-day testimony to Congress.

The euro EURUSD +0.19% EURJPY -0.09% was fetching $1.3086, up from $1.3065, and 120.13 yen as compared with ¥120.05.

The dollar USDJPY -0.27% was little changed at ¥91.81 versus ¥91.88.

“European markets should see a more subdued start than yesterday, and while the Italian political issues haven’t materially impacted the psyche of U.S. and Asian equity traders, [they have] certainly influenced forex players,” said Chris Weston, chief market strategist at IG Markets.

Hints of stabilization appeared in the foreign-exchange markets as Italy’s political parties began exploring the possibility of stitching together a government after an inconclusive election result had resurrected worries of a euro-zone crisis. Such fears had weighed heavily on risk currencies such as the euro earlier this week.

Also, Fed Chairman Bernanke Tuesday said in remarks to the Senate Banking Committee that he backed continuation of the central bank’s bond purchases, worth $85 billion a month, easing worries about the impact from an end to that program.

Among other major currency pairs, the British pound GBPUSD -0.09% was fetching $1.5108 as compared with $1.5128.

1:35 PM

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HE TAKEAWAY: German GFK consumer confidence survey rises to 5.9 for March -> consumer expectations fall in line with Bundesbank forecast -> Euro rises

German consumer confidence rose to a four month high according to the GFK survey released for March. The survey was reported at 5.9, meeting expectations and up from 5.8 in the February survey.

German business expectations rose to -2.5 in the February survey, while income expectations dropped to 31.8. GFK said in a statement that “German consumers anticipate that the economy will steadily improve in the coming months.”

Following the economic decline in Q4, the Bundesbank is predicting that the German economy will return to growth in the current quarter on improved industrial production. The European Union predicts 0.5% German growth over the whole of 2013. The GFK survey shows German consumers’ expectations are in line with the central bank forecast. Signs of German economic growth are Euro positive.

That is why the Euro rose about twenty points against the US Dollar to 1.3088 in Forex markets following the report. Resistance may be provided by the first monthly pivot support line around 1.3184, and support may continue to be provided by the key 1.3000 level. (To learn how to incorporate overbought/oversold signals into your trading click here.)

1:33 PM

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The Euro may fall as borrowing costs rise at an Italian bond auction while the British Pound is under pressure before the release of revised fourth-quarter GDP data.

Talking Points

Euro to Fall on Strong Pickup in Italian Borrowing Costs at Bond Auction
British Pound Under Pressure Before Revised Fourth-Quarter GDP Data
Japanese Yen Resumes Rebound as Nikkei Sinks, Boosting Haven Demand

Italy remains in focus as Rome prepares to sell €6.5 billion in 5- and 10-year bonds. Traders will keep a close eye on average yield and bid-to-cover readings, with a marked pickup in borrowing costs and/or a drop in demand likely to be seen as signs of rising sovereign risk amid political uncertainty in the wake of the weekend’s election. Needless to say, such an outcome bodes ill for the Euro.

The British Pound underperformed overnight – losing as much as 0.4 percent – as markets awaited revised fourth-quarter UK GDP figures. Expectations call for confirmation of the initially estimated 0.3 contraction. A downgrade may amplify selling pressure as traders build bets on further expansion of BOE stimulus. We continue to hold short GBPUSD.

Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen edged higher, adding as much as 0.5 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move appeared to reflect regional safe-haven demand as the Nikkei benchmark stock index sank for a second day, sliding 1.3 percent.

1:32 PM

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There’s hope on the horizon for drivers. A break in the gasoline price increase should come in April, oil analysts have said.
The March-April prices at the pump are expected to peak at between $3.80 and $4.10 per gallon before heading back down a few cents.
All of this comes as wholesale oil prices continue to drop. Crude oil prices fell about 2.5 percent this past week. That should be good news for consumers but the pump prices keep going up. The spike comes as refiners begin to draw down on supplies as they change over from winter to more expensive summer blends. It’s also the time when refineries shut down for maintenance.
The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in Massachusetts this week is $3.77. In New Hampshire, the average is $3.74. The national average is $3.78 per gallon.

12:17 PM

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10:20 AM

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LIMITED PERIOD OFFER

5:21 PM

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TRAIL OFFER : PAY JUST Rs 500( PLUS TAX) FOR 10 DAYS TRAIL TIPS (LIMITED PERIOD OFFER)

1:10 PM

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10:17 AM

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10:06 AM

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PRECIOUS-Gold bounces on stronger euro; focus on Fed testimony

6:02 PM

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U.S. gold futures hit session high at $1,592/oz
* Markets eye U.S. Fed's Bernanke semi-annual testimony (Updates prices, adds comments, changes dateline from Singapore)
By Clara Denina
LONDON, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Gold rose on Monday, as rallying stock markets and a broadly lower dollar helped the metal recoup some of last week's losses, but investors were cautious ahead of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony to Congress later this week.
Analysts said the market was also finding background support from a downgrade of Britain's credit rating by Moody's and signs that Japan would continue with ultra easy monetary policy.
Spot gold rose 0.7 percent to $1,592 by 1121 GMT. It hit a seven-month low of $1,554.49 on Thursday after minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's last meeting triggered worries the central bank might wind down its bond buying programme.
U.S. gold futures for April delivery rose 1.2 percent to a session high of $1,592 an ounce. It was last seen at $1,591.50, still up 1.1 percent.
"With supportive news over the weekend, we can argue that we have removed quite a lot of overhangs seen in gold recently but we need to see a move above $1,600 and even $1,625 before we start talking about a recovery," Saxo Bank head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen said.
Moody's slashed the UK's AAA rating by one notch, raising prospects of continued loose monetary and fiscal policy, while Japan is likely to nominate a proponent of aggressive monetary easing as its next central bank governor.
Accomodative monetary policies are seen as positive for the metal, as rampant cash printing would undermine currencies.
The focus remains on the United States this week, where more clues are sought about the country's monetary policy stance. Bernanke will deliver his semi-annual monetary policy report on Feb 27.
"Ben Bernanke may quell speculation about a halt to quantitative easing, supporting gold," Hansen said.
Added to that, analysts said that about $85 billion in across-the-board government spending cuts could kick in on March 1, in a process called sequestration.
"Later this week, a failure to the U.S. sequestration talks may also imply lower economic growth, which plays in the hands of gold, as it could also indicate that stimulus could stay with us longer."
In other markets, shares firmed, while the euro bounced from a six-week low against the dollar, but further upside may be limited as investors eye Italian elections, where an unstable government could cause another crisis of confidence in the European Union's single currency.
Overall confidence in gold was still fragile, with holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust falling 42.3 tonnes to 1,280.67 tonnes last week, its largest weekly outflow since August 2011.
Gold net long positions fell by 3.5 million ounces to 12.8 million ounces in the week to Feb 21, the lowest level since May, according to the latest Commitment of Traders data.
"The bulk of the decline in net long positions can be attributed to a large increase in short positions," HSBC said in a note.
"With near-record short positions on gold, a potential shortcovering on bullion may lead to higher prices."
Gold speculative short positions stood a multi-year high of 12.5 million ounces.
Buying at lower levels by investors of physical gold in Asia helped lift prices, while a slower growth in China's manufacturing sector in February also raised concerns about the recovery of the global economy, analysts said.
The wedding and festival season are underway in India, the world's top gold consumer, with jewellery a key part of celebrations.
Russia and Turkey both raised gold holdings for a second consecutive month in January, data from the International Monetary Fund showed, highlighting central banks' interest in diversifying part of their reserves into bullion.
Spot platinum rose 0.9 percent to $1,619.49 an ounce, after prices fell 3 percent to a five-week low of $1,593.45 on Thursday. Palladium was up 1.5 percent at $747 an ounce, having fallen to a one-month trough of $707.22 last week.

10:24 AM

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Asian shares recover from steep loss, growth worry caps

10:53 AM

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Asian shares clawed back some of the previous day's steep losses on Friday as investors took some comfort in the Federal Reserve's commitment to ultra-soft monetary policy for now, but weak U.S. and European data capped prices.
Worries about the global economic outlook lifted spot gold 0.3 percent to $1,581.40 an ounce, while sluggish data underscoring the need for the Fed's continued monetary stimulus pushed the dollar down 0.2 percent and away from a 5-1/2-month high against a basket of currencies .DXY seen on Thursday.
The euro inched up 0.1 percent to $1.3197 after falling to a six-week low of $1.31615 on Thursday, and was trading up 0.1 percent to 122.85 yen after hitting a three-week trough of 122.25 yen on Thursday.
Most risk assets slid to 2013 lows on Thursday, in part because of worries the Fed could prematurely wind down its bond buying program. The sharp fall came as many markets had been advancing to their highs, bolstered by receding worries about the euro zone's debt crisis.
"In America they're kind of revealing that actually the next thing we need to do is start tightening, and that's why global stocks are very volatile at the moment and we're going to be caught up in that," said Damien Boey, equity strategist at Credit Suisse.
The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS was up 0.3 percent, after tumbling 1.5 percent on Thursday for its sharpest one-day slump in seven months. The index was set for a weekly loss of 0.6 percent.
Upbeat comments from the central bank governor helped Australian shares .AXJO jump 1.2 percent, with investors buying back after stocks slumped 2.3 percent for their biggest one-day fall since May in the previous session.
South Korean shares .KS11 rose 0.4 percent while Hong Kong shares .HSI bucked the regional trend and fell 0.5 percent.
Tokyo's Nikkei stock average .N225 eased 0.5 percent. .T
London copper climbed 0.7 percent to $7,917 a metric ton, after posting its biggest single-day slide this year on Thursday.
Crude oil futures recovered from Thursday's sell-off, with U.S. crude up 0.4 percent to $93.25 a barrel and Brent rising 0.5 percent to $114.07. <O/R>
"Financial markets appear to be at a transitional point. Following on from the 'Great Moderation' and the 'Great Recession', there now seems to be a debate over the next 'Great' theme," Barclays Capital said in a research.
ITALY, U.S. BUDGET EYED
U.S. Treasury yields were a tad higher in Asia, after easing the previous session following several indicators pointing to slow economic growth, such as weekly jobless benefit claims and factory activity.
The euro zone's blue-chip Euro STOXX 50 index .STOXX50E fell to a fresh 2013 low on Thursday as unexpectedly weak business activity indexes dampened hopes the euro zone would emerge from recession soon.
Sentiment towards Europe was also hurt by uncertainty ahead of Italy's election over the weekend. Most investors expect a centre-left government to win and continue with reforms to tackle Italy's debt problems. But a resurgence of former leader Silvio Berlusconi has raised new worries.
Caution remained over the U.S. fiscal woes, with President Barack Obama and top Republican lawmakers so far failing to reach a deal to avert "sequestration" cuts that are set to kick in on March 1, which economists warn would hurt the economy and lead to job losses.
The dollar steadied against the yen around 93.12.

10:52 AM

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10:42 AM

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Commodities expert and precious metals forecaster Eugen Weinberg from Germany's Commerzbank discusses how gold buying will pick up in the second half of the year and push prices towards $2,000, in an interview with Bloomberg TV.
While there is no compelling reason to own gold at the moment, since the Euro crisis is abating and inflation hasn't picked up yet, he thinks the investment interest will come back and continuous buying by the central banks will elevate the price.
"Going in like a bear, coming out like a bull" is how Weinberg characterizes the next 12 months for gold.
At the moment, gold havens aren't needed because other commodities have recovered since last year and are likely to do so further this year.
Overall, he believes sentiment is improving with investors' risk appetite coming back. As well, corporate clients are becoming more upbeat about the future.

10:42 AM

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Sensex succumbs 317 points on global woes

4:30 PM

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Indian equity markets opened gap down amid weak global cues. Global markets suffered heavy sell off on the news that US Federal Reserve could slow down its bond buying program. Markets plunged led by Metal, Banking & Financial, Capital Goods and FMCG stocks.

Markets continued selling pressure throughout the day and made fresh low of 2013 in afternoon session tracking weak European cues. Indices ended near its low point of the day. All the sectoral indices turned in red. IT stocks also gave up morning gain after continued selling pressure.

Market breadth remained extremely bearish out of 50 Nifty stocks only 3 stocks closed in green. Midcap and Smallcap indices closed with loss of 1.64% and 1.74% respectively. Benchmark indices closed with loss of over one and half percent in today's session.

Sensex closed at 19325.36 with the loss of 317.39 points and at NSE Nifty closed at 5852.25 with the loss of 90.80 points at the end of the day. BSE MIDCAP index closed at 6607.44 with the loss of 110.37 points and BSE SMALLCAP index closed at 6557.61 with the loss of 116.11 points.

In percentage terms key losers were Jindal Steel & Power Ltd (NSE: JINDALSTEL), Tata Steel Ltd (NSE: TATASTEEL) and Jaiprakash Associates Ltd (NSE: JPASSOCIAT) while key gainer were Cipla Ltd (NSE: CIPLA), GAIL (India) Ltd (NSE: GAIL) and Bajaj Auto Ltd (NSE: BAJAJ-AUTO).

On sectoral front all the sectoral indices closed in red. Major selling was seen in Metal, Banking & Financial, Realty, Capital Goods, Oil & Gas, Power, FMCG and Auto sectors. Market breadth remained negative amid 1976 advances against 871 declining stocks.

From the perspective of weight in Nifty key losers were ICICI Bank Ltd (NSE: ICICIBANK), Reliance Industries Ltd (NSE: RELIANCE) and HDFC Bank Ltd (NSE: HDFCBANK).

4:28 PM

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In the first eleven months of 2012 world mine production of copper increased by around 4% compared with production in the same period of 2011, International Copper Study Group said.

Concentrate production increased by 3.8% while solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) was up by 5.8%. Increases in Chile (3.7%), China (26%), Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) (21%), Mexico (19%) and Peru (6%) more than offset declines inAustralia (4%) and Indonesia (30%). On a regional basis, production rose by 8% in Africa, 4.4% in the Americas. 5.9% in Asia, and3.2% in Europe, but declined by 4.3% in Oceania. The average world mine capacity utilization rate for the first eleven months of 2012 increased to 81.2% from 80.1% in the same period of 2011.
World refined production increased by 2.1% in the first eleven months of 2012 compared with refined production in the same periodof 2011: Primary production was up by 2% due to the increase in electrowon production, and secondary production (from scrap) increased by 2.4%. The main contributors to growth were China (10%), Japan (15%) and the DRC (29%), with production declining by 6% in Chile, 3% in the United States (owing to a series of smelter maintenance shutdowns), and by 50% in the Philippines (owing to a fire at the sole smelter). The average world refinery capacity utilization rate for the first eleven months of 2012 was 78.7% compared with 80.6% in the same period of 2011.

3:22 PM

alphaadvisory

11:37 AM

alphaadvisory

11:22 AM

alphaadvisory

Here are 10 things that may help you be a better investor, some ways to think differently from the crowd in that pursuit to achieve market dominance.

1. Do not think about making money, think about losing money - the first step toward success is accepting that losing is part of trading. You will not be right all of the time, you can not always trade your way out of a bad situation. There will be times when you simply have to walk away with a loss. The key is to keeping the losses small and manageable. When the market proves you wrong, take the loss.

2. Do not think you can average down to win - it is a logical idea, add more to a losing position with the expectation that the market must eventually go your way. Many times this strategy will work but, when it does not work, the loss may be insurmountable. The market does not eventually have to go your way.

3. Do not think that your success is entitled - you may make a great trade, pick a really great stock and have a feeling like you really have the market figured out. Forget your gloating, no one ever has the market figured out. We must always remember that we have to work as smart for the next trade as we did for the last.

4. Do not think that talent is required - making money in any trading endeavor is a small part technical skill and a big part emotional management. Learn to limit losses, let winners run and be selective with what you trade. Emotional mastery is more important than stock picking skill.

5. Do not think that you can tell the market what to do - the market does not care about you, it does not know that you want to make a profit. You are the slave, the market is your master. Be obedient and do what the market tells you to.

6. Do not think you are competing against other traders - trading success comes to those who overcome themselves, it is you and your persistent desire to break trading rules that is the ultimate adversary. What others are doing is of little consequence, only you can react to the market and achieve your success.

7. Do not think that Fear and Greed can ever be positive - in life, fear can keep us from harm, greed can give us the motivation to work hard. In the market, these two emotional forces will lead to losses. If your decisions are governed by either or both you will most certainly find that your money escapes you.

8. Do not think you will remember everything you learn - every trade provides a lesson, some valuable education on what to do and what not to do. However, it is likely that your lessons will contradict one another and lead you to forget many of them. Write down the knowledge that you accumulate, return to this trading journal so that you can retain some value from the lessons taught by the market. Remember, the market is cruel, it gives the test first and the lesson after.

9. Do not think that being right will lead to profits - you may be exactly right about what the fundamentals are and what they are worth. However, timing is everything, if your expectations for the future are ill timed, you may find yourself losing more than you can tolerate. Remember, the market can be wrong longer than you can be liquid.

10. Do not think you can overcome the laws of probability - traders tend to be gamblers when they face a loss and risk averse when the have a potential for gain. They would rather lock in a sure profit and gamble against a probable loss even if the expected value of doing so is irrational. Trading is a probability game, each decision should be made on the basis of the best expected value and not what feels best.

10:48 AM

alphaadvisory

There were stray incidents of violence at the start of a two-day strike called by trade unions to protest against high prices and policy changes, including foreign investment in supermarkets, that they said could hurt employment.

Many banks were closed and public transport was disrupted in several parts of the country.

As many as 11 trade unions, including the ruling Congress party affiliated Indian National Trade Unions Congress (INTUC), said the first day of the protest that they had called jointly was successful in putting pressure on the government to listen to them.

“At least 95% of our workers from steel, manufacturing, mining and transport sectors came on the road to protest,” said G. Sanjeeva Reddy, president of INTUC. “The government and the party (Congress) have to listen to the just demand of the poor workers. Economic growth has no meaning unless it trickles down to the common workers,” Reddy said. INTUC has 20 million members.

C.H. Venkatachalam, general secretary of the All India Bank Employees Association (AIBEA), said the strike was a success at state-owned banks.

10:46 AM

alphaadvisory

Japanese corporations are diversifying production in Asia to rely less on China as a production base amid rising labor costs there and growing risks stemming from bilateral tensions.

Funai Electric Co. which makes DVD and Blu-ray Disc recorders and printers in China for export to the U.S. and other markets, plans to gradually shift production of entry-level and midpriced models to a factory it will build in the Philippines.

The new plant, slated to go onstream in 2014, will be located on a roughly 120,000 sq. meter plot that the firm bought in an industrial park near Manila. The overall investment in the factory is estimated at 3-4 billion yen. Funai also plans to lift the output capacity of its television factory in Thailand in the summer of 2014.

10:46 AM

alphaadvisory

China’s CSI300 index, which tracks China’s largest listed firms, slid more than 3 percent on Thursday on concerns that recent central bank behavior had signalled the beginning of a tightening cycle.

Analysts said that investors were worried the central bank was draining funds more aggressively than expected. The People’s Bank of China let a net 910 billion yuan ($145.89 billion) drain from the interbank market this week.

“The central bank drained over 800 billion yuan from the money market, which sparked worries that liquidity conditions might be tightening,” said Chen Shaodan, analyst at New Times Securities.

In addition, the central bank this week returned to using longer-term forward repos to drain funds, instead of reverse repos which inject funds, for the first time since June.

10:17 AM

alphaadvisory

GOOD MORNING TO ALL

10:31 AM

alphaadvisory

LME COPPER : UP 6950 KEDIA ZINC: DOWN 0 ALUMINIUM : UP 600 NICKEL: UP 114 LEAD: DOWN -100 TIN: DOWN -135

2:39 PM

alphaadvisory

2:31 PM

alphaadvisory

Barclays' research into the Chinese NPI (Nickel Pig Iron) sector and in particular the ongoing expansion in low-cost, high-quality product rotary kiln electric furnace capacity, means that there is an inexorable trend in China towards two outcomes in the nickel market:
--China will require fewer refined nickel units for import – as much as 170Kt of Ni-contained NPI capacity will ramp up in 2013, which more than outweighs the 78Kt of nickel production expected from key new HPAL and ferronickel mine projects, and
--Given that the nickel market remains in significant surplus, prices need to trade into the cost curve and current stainless market conditions point to a necessity for nickel prices to trade close to average NPI sector costs, which are now close to the $15,700/t level.
Whilst positive macro sentiment has propelled nickel prices above $18,000/t in February so far, this has coincided with an ongoing deterioration in fundamental expectations which, in turn, points to a significant retracement lower in prices, in Barcalys' view.
“Our 2012 surplus has expanded to 81Kt and is now projected to reach 68Kt in 2013, versus our previous 43Kt forecast. Sustained weaker-than-anticipated stainless sector activity in Q4, combined with strong domestic Chinese production growth, supported a sizeable global surplus formation during the period, as reflected in the 30kt build in LME stocks since October last year.” the Bank noted.
In terms of the 2013 balance, feedback to our base metals flash publication has contributed to a revision higher to our NPI output estimate for 2013 to 330Kt (from 300Kt), in turn bolstering the expected surplus.
Given the recent cutbacks to production expectations for a number of mines ex-China, as well as pessimism over the new generation of HPAL facilities ramping up, it may come as a surprise that our surplus has been expanding at the same time, the Bank noted.

1:10 PM

alphaadvisory

Implementation of Single Supervisory Mechanism and Single Resolution Mechanism would be of crucial importance in the progress towards financial union, according to Mario Draghi, President of European Central Bank.
Addressing the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament on Monday, Draghi said that there are four main reasons for a Single Resolution Mechanism with a Single Resolution Authority at its centre.

The first reason is that only a Single Resolution Authority will ensure timely and impartial decision-making focused on the European dimension. In a situation where a cross-border resolution is required, the Single Resolution Authority would avoid national focus and pursue the optimal resolution strategy, thus mitigating coordination problems.
The second reason is that the Single Resolution Authority would credibly pursue the least cost resolution strategy, assessing possible cross-border spillover effects and systemic concerns, and ensuring that resolution costs are first and foremost borne by the private sector. It would thereby minimise resolution costs without recourse to taxpayer money.
The third reason is that the Single Resolution Authority is an essential complement to the Single Supervisory Mechanism. The Single Supervisory Mechanism will provide a timely and unbiased assessment of the need for resolution, while the Single Resolution Authority will ensure prompt and efficient action once the trigger is reached. This will avoid misaligned incentives that could arise with supervision moved to the European level while resolution responsibility remained national.

The fourth reason is that a Single Resolution Authority would help to break the vicious bank-sovereign nexus.
The Single Resolution Authority naturally needs to be strong and effective to deliver what is needed. This requires three features to be fulfilled:
First, the Single Resolution Authority needs to dispose of a robust resolution framework, one that provides it with enforceable resolution tools and powers. In this respect, the proposed bank recovery and resolution directive is key. Adoption of the directive, ideally by June, is an urgently needed step towards a strong European resolution framework.

Second, the Single Resolution Authority needs access to resolution financing. It should therefore have a European Resolution Fund at its disposal, which should be financed by the private sector via risk-based ex ante levies. The European Resolution Fund should be backed by a public backstop mechanism, the support of which would need to be recouped via special ex post levies on the private sector. This means that it would be fiscally neutral over the medium term.

Third, the Single Resolution Authority should have an institutional set-up that allows for independence, sufficient operational capacity and a robust accountability framework with effective judicial protection against resolution decisions ex post.

12:41 PM

alphaadvisory

Gold closed sharply lower on Monday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastic and the RSI remain bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If it extends the decline off last October's high, the 87% retracement level of the May-October rally crossing is the next downside target.

10:28 AM

alphaadvisory

U.S. markets is closed today, February 18 on President’s Day

11:18 AM

alphaadvisory

11:15 AM

alphaadvisory

Oil prices fell to near $95 a barrel Monday after US industrial production weakened and Europe remained mired in recession.

Benchmark crude for March delivery was down 25 cents to $95.61 per barrel at midday Bangkok time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell $1.45 to finish at $95.86 a barrel on the Nymex on Friday.

Brent crude, used to price many varieties of foreign oil, rose 14 cents to $117.80 per barrel in London.

The Federal Reserve said Friday that US factory production slowed in January, mostly because of a big drop in output at auto factories. Most analysts think the slowdown is temporary, but it was enough to raise concern about the still-sluggish economic recovery.

Traders were also concerned about a deepening recession across the economy of the 17 countries that use the euro. Their combined economic output shrank by 0.6 per cent in the final quarter of 2012 from the previous three-month period. The decline was bigger than the 0.4 per cent drop expected and the steepest fall since 2009.

Gold heads for biggest weekly drop since December

3:04 PM

alphaadvisory

11:35 AM

alphaadvisory

11:35 AM

alphaadvisory

11:34 AM

alphaadvisory

Stop losses are an essential part of any risk management system because they help traders resist trading on emotions. Whenever you open a trade, you should always set a stop loss. If you stick to your plan and don’t move them, you’ll find you won’t ever let your losses run too long. Remember these rules:
1. A stop loss should be considered and decided before a position is entered.
2. A stop loss should be placed immediately at the time of entry.
3. A stop loss amount should not allow more than a 2% loss of your account balance—for day trades and scalp trades, a stop loss should not allow more than 1% loss of account balance.

11:21 AM

alphaadvisory

ECB says inflation will fall below 2% in the coming months, says economic weakness will prevail in early 2013

2:36 PM

alphaadvisory

2:32 PM

alphaadvisory

12:14 PM

alphaadvisory

U.S. ZONE Core Retail Sales m/m 0.2% VS 0.3% Retail Sales m/m 0.1% VS 0.5% Import Prices m/m 0.6% VS -0.1%

7:24 PM

alphaadvisory

1:39 PM

alphaadvisory

Top daytraders have the discipline to follow their daytrading system rigorously, because they know that only the trades that are signaled by their system have a greater rate of success. Matching a method of trading with your personality is the only way you will ever feel comfortable in the markets. Some websites have sought to profit from day traders by offering them hot tips and stock picks for a fee.

Day trading is an investment tactic with a relatively short investment. You need to position yourself so that you can endure long strings of losses, and maintain your day trading system.

Trading successfully is by no means a simple matter. A day trader should treat their capital as 100% risk capital and should not have to unduly worry that the whole amount of this capital may be lost very quickly. Good day traders do not rush into trades.

Day trading is just a numbers game. Be aware that day trading does not offer the protection of an advisor who can tell you whether a particular investment is suitable to your financial goals. Day trading is like running any other kind of business. It requires planning and expertize.

Limiting your losses when day trading is by far more important than making big profits. Day trading is an inherently variable business. For the sophisticated investor day trading may be safe since such investors know what they are doing and are willing to absorb the risk of losing money. Online trading is quick and easy, but making money from day trading and online investing takes time.

1:34 PM

alphaadvisory

MCX Silver February was trading at lower levels for a week. Crucial fundamental factors have impacted Silver futures for the last two months.

After the double top pattern from October to December, the commodity has been bearish since the beginning of 2013. Silver crossed the 59483 levels and decremented to 57600 levels. The strength of the rally is not sufficient for an upward movement for the week as there may be short covering at lower levels.

On charts, Silver tracks are showing a bearish phenomenon. It is trading well below 20 day SMA at 58410 levels. MACD is less than zero implies the weakness of the rally; RSI at 41.90 is not a corrective term at all. Stochastic level recovered from oversold territory and is moving around lower levels.

Rate of change oscillator was slight weak, hence down trend is to be expected. When silver price breach 58460 levels, it may witness a steady decline to 57500 levels. Strong support is now seen at 57540 levels. Short covering is expected for the silver trading during the week.

S1: 57540 S2: 57500
R1: 57700 R2: 57860
Trend: Bearish

11:16 AM

alphaadvisory

The U.S. and Europe may have been skirting the edge of financial peril for years, but Christopher Ecclestone, who is the principal and mining strategist of London-based Hallgarten & Co., told The Metals Report that the gold price should drop this year as investors realize that there's no more cause for panic. However, the frank and expressive Ecclestone has plenty of other suggestions for what's "sexy" this year (zinc, copper and specialty metals), even as he rips into "business as usual" gold majors and chastises any management team with the nerve to offer a 0.5% dividend.
The Metals Report: Christopher, you believe that the market will recover in 2013. Why?
Chris Ecclestone: We'll have a different type of recovery than we've had in the past, when everything was driven by the financial industry and house price inflation. The U.S. keeps driving along the edge of the cliff like Thelma and Louise, but never actually going over.
I get the feeling that there will inevitably have to be a recuperation. The ducks are in the row now for an industrial recuperation—probably a construction-led one. I'm not talking about a rip-roaring recovery, but there is such a delicate balance in base metals between supply and demand that it doesn't take much recovery to vacuum up lingering stocks and tip the markets back into a deficit situation again.
TMR: The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a couple of hundred points away from its all-time high. Do you get the sense that retail investor sentiment has changed?
CE: Not really. Retail is the last to arrive because retail is not a believer. They're trying to reduce their debts while grappling with flaccid house prices—they're not feeling the love yet. It's been said that the equity markets lead six months ahead of the real economy. I suspect it's being driven by institutional and big money.
TMR: The ongoing stimulus measures being undertaken around the world seem to point toward a higher gold price, yet you believe that gold will drift lower in 2013. Tell us about that.
CE: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will wind down the cash supply as soon as there is stronger growth. He won't stoke the fire the way that Alan Greenspan used to do, where he actually created bubbles. Bernanke was loathe to put out all that extra cash. As soon as he sees signs of a sustained recovery, he will start to rake that money back in and take it out of circulation.
Also, the euro collapse is just not happening. It went very near to the edge early last year, but the euro has veered well away from that danger and it's just not going to happen. Anyone who wanted "apocalypse now" is disappointed. That is why the gold price is just drifting at the moment. If there's an economic recovery, there will be even greater pressure for gold to start heading south because people will perceive that the crisis is over. Feelings of crisis have definitely driven gold in the last five years.
TMR: Junior mining companies are having trouble landing financing for developing their mining projects. If the economy does improve, will it bring more financing for juniors?
CE: They're going to have to continue to wait. There will be a lot of attrition. There are just way too many gold companies out there. Quite a number of them will die off. Some of the others will refocus themselves on industrial metals instead of some totally impractical half gram-per-ton gold project.
TMR: You believe that gold majors have axed their CEOs as a means to appease shareholders, but have also maintained their "businesses as usual" attitudes. What's it going to take for the majors to generate shareholder value?
CE: Some of them have dropped their CEOs and the situation has still not gotten better. It's an ongoing ballooning of capital expenditures. Now there's deterioration in margins because of the conditions that they've made with workers and suppliers during the golden years that are unsustainable. Things will have to be tightened up. These organizations have gotten fat and lazy and axing the CEO doesn't solve that.
TMR: Are you willing to name names?
CE: I don't need to name names because virtually all of the majors are in that category. You name them, they're like that. They've had too many good years. The goal is to improve the bottom line, yet there's very little discussion of the bottom line. No one talks about price-to-earnings ratios in the gold mining world. Some of those ounces in the ground are going to stay there because the capex is rollicking out of control and projects are ending up in the freezer.
TMR: You suggest that a merger of Inmet Mining Corp. (IMN:TSX) and First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM:TSX; FQM:LSE) could form a major Canada-based metals producer, which is currently the exclusive territory of Teck Resources Ltd. (TCK:NYSE; TCK.A:TSX). Inmet has rejected First Quantum's offer. Is that deal going to get done?
CE: It will get done. Inmet is doomed! The dividend yield it offered has been lousy. First Quantum has a much higher valuation and dividend yield, which just goes to show what gives stock a currency to do these deals. Inmet has missed a lot of opportunities in recent years.
TMR: Will we see more of the same type of mergers?
CE: Absolutely. First Quantum could move on to be a serial deal-doer. It has been collecting other assets in the past. I wouldn't be surprised if Teck does some deals. Then there's Lundin Mining Corp. (LUN:TSX). Lundin is going to be an acquirer or an acquired entity. Companies are prowling around looking to get their hands on something like Lundin because it's well positioned in zinc. HudBay Minerals Inc. (HBM:TSX; HBM:NYSE) is another entity that should merge with someone. It had piles of cash after the slump in 2008, but failed to acquire the bargains that were lying around. It made a rather ritzy purchase in Peru of a non-producing asset—Norsemont Mining Inc.
TMR: Your model mining portfolio finished 2012 on a high note. What trends do you see that investors could piggyback on?
CE: Gold is not that great at the moment. I thought some of the producers and near-producers would have paid off a bit more, such as Eldorado Gold Corp. (ELD:TSX; EGO:NYSE), which is one of the better-managed majors. If you're not getting a dividend from a major, and there's no upside, then you might as well go for a junior where you know you're playing Russian roulette. They could either fizzle or appreciate, but at least you've got a chance that something will happen. A dull major is pretty damn dull.
TMR: How important is a dividend to you?
CE: It's important for big producers. It is actually something that the juniors should be pushing for. In Australia, for example, investors often collect their dividends from big producers and then buy juniors with the cash. The Canadian model is that the majors pay a measly dividend and keep the money, making serial overpriced bids for juniors. A yield of 0.50% is derisory. It's just to get the company on to the list of dividend payers. If a company is making $0.40/share and paying out $0.05/share, that's pathetic—that's not even worth the effort.
TMR: Are there some companies a little lower on the food chain that you're excited about?
CE: Investors should look toward specialty metals like tungsten and antimony, or base metals like lead and zinc. Those are the areas where there's a critical shortage of product and a deficiency in the construction of additional mines over the last 10 years. Zinc production will fall as some of the biggest mines in the Western world shut down over the coming year or two. They will not be replaced; the cupboard is bare. That lays out a scenario in which zinc could go from $1/pound (lb) to $1.50/lb in the space of two years. I don't see any potential for major metals to make that type of move.
TMR: What are some zinc plays that you're fond of?
CE: Some development stories were taken out in the last go round. Farallon Mining Ltd. (FAN:TSX) and Breakwater Resources Ltd. (BWR:TSX) were both taken out by Nyrstar (NYR:BSE).
The no-brainer zinc play is Lundin. I can only think of Donner Metals Ltd. (DON:TSX.V) as an up-and-coming name. Donner partnered with Xstrata Plc (XTA:LSE) in the Bracemac-McLeod project in Quebec. It is slim pickings out there.
TMR: What about industrial metals?
CE: I like Mandalay Resources Corp. (MND:TSX), which is a gold-silver-antimony play. The phenomenal recent uplift in antimony has been driving the stock. Antimony has been a much better performer than the rare earth elements have. Mandalay's stock has doubled since July—and it's very hard to find any production stock that has doubled in the last six months.
TMR: Is this a management team that will under promise and over deliver?
CE: That's what it's done. It's a pretty low-key company. It's a "by appointment only" sort of investment story that people speak about behind cupped hands. There are a lot of companies out there that talk about what they're doing and don't do anything. This company's not as aggressive in promoting its story, but it hasn't damaged its stock price at all.
TMR: Where is the future growth going to come from for Mandalay?
CE: It did recently announce that it discovered a new zone at its Costerfield mine. The potential to expand there is enormous. It wasn't focusing too much on antimony and then it realized the attractions of that metal. It's certainly the sexiest thing about Mandalay. The antimony is the key at Mandalay if gold and silver start to go down, as I expect them to.
TMR: What are some other industrial metal plays you're following?
CE: Tungsten, mainly. Tungsten has gotten prospective. There were a lot of companies lining up for the tungsten race in 2011, but 2012 proved to be difficult for financing. The tungsten price dropped from around $450/ton down to $320/ton. That took the wind out of the sails. It's still a phenomenal price for tungsten, but without financing ability, companies mothballed their projects. There's no improvement in what was a pretty dire supply dynamic because China has been restricting its tungsten exports.
TMR: How can investors play the tungsten market?
CE: Woulfe Mining (WOF:TSX.V) in South Korea has the world's former largest tungsten mine that it's reactivating.

7:21 AM

alphaadvisory

MCX Silver looks dull as US Silver collapse

5:18 PM

alphaadvisory

Silver prices at India’s Multi Commodities Exchange (MCX) witnessed a bearish phenomenon. The commodity is now trading around 57325-57537 Rs/kg levels.

MCX Silver is moving to the oversold territory as high profit booking were witnessed in the markets. Weak global sentiments have impacted the domestic market prices. However, weak demand from China on lunar New Year holidays has kept prices in check.

On Tuesday trade, Silver March contract rose to a high of 57537 Rs/kg at 3pm IST and is expected to trade in a bearish phenomenon. Support is now seen at Rs 57200, 56800 levels and resistance at 58200 & 58800, analysts said.

On global markets, Comex Silver declined for the third consecutive day. It declined 0.19% and closed at 30.910 $/oz. Weakness in Dollar Index have impacted the dollar denominated commodities.

On charts, Silver movement is still below 20 day SMA at 58484 levels. Indicators are slight negative and RSI at 38.5 is bearish.

5:17 PM

alphaadvisory

Indian bourses opened flat amid subdued global cues. Indices remained lackluster ahead of IIP data. Realty and Metal stocks remained under pressure while Oil, Auto and Pharma stocks gained in opening session.

5:17 PM

alphaadvisory

copper is looks sideways to bearish. Support is there at 442 while 445 is the resistance

3:41 PM

alphaadvisory

he Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities fell 0.2 percent to 676.47 at 4:38 p.m. Singapore time. The UBS Bloomberg CMCI index of 26 raw materials dropped 0.3 percent to 1,600.817.

CRUDE OIL

West Texas Intermediate oil traded near the highest level in more than a week in New York after the biggest gain since January. U.S. crude stockpiles probably increased last week, a Bloomberg News survey shows. spread between Brent and WTI should come together.”
Crude for March delivery was at $96.94 a barrel, down 9 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 4:17 p.m. Tokyo time. The volume of all futures traded was 15 percent above the 100-day average. The contract increased $1.31 to $97.03 yesterday, the most since Jan. 2 and the highest closing price since Feb. 1.
Brent for March settlement, which expires tomorrow, fell 5 cents to $118.08 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The more-active April contract slid 7 cents to $117.14 a barrel. The volume of all futures traded was 7 percent below the 100-day average. The European benchmark grade for March was at a premium of $21.14 to WTI futures. The gap narrowed $2.08, the most since Dec. 17, to $21.10 yesterday.

BASE METALS

Copper traded near a one-week low as markets in China, the biggest buyer of the metal, are closed this week for the Lunar New Year holiday and data this week may show a contraction in euro-zone economies.
The metal for delivery in three months traded little changed at $8,190.50 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange at 3:00 p.m. in Seoul. The price yesterday fell 1.2 percent, the biggest drop since Dec. 20, touching $8,171, the lowest intra- day level since Jan. 31. Futures for March delivery were also little changed at $3.7195 a pound on the Comex in New York.

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold rallied from its lowest level in more than a month as North Korea conducted its third nuclear test, spurring demand for a haven. Platinum advanced.
Gold for immediate delivery was little changed at $1,646.40 an ounce at 3:12 p.m. in Singapore after losing as much as 0.3 percent to $1,642.90, the cheapest since Jan. 4. Spot silver was 0.3 percent lower after declining as much as 0.7 percent to $30.735 an ounce, the lowest since Jan. 28.
Spot platinum gained 0.6 percent to $1,698.87 an ounce, while cash palladium was little changed at $759.50 an ounce.

GRAINS, OILSEEDS, SOFT COMMODITIES

Corn fell for an eighth day, the longest losing streak since March 2010, after the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast an increase in production.
Corn for March dropped as much as 0.7 percent to $6.975 a bushel, the lowest level since Jan. 11, on the Chicago Board of Trade, and was at $6.9775 at 3:31 p.m. Singapore time. The most- active contract has lost 5.7 percent this month.
Soybeans for May delivery little changed at $14.17 a bushel. The contract lost 4.6 percent in the four days to yesterday. Wheat for March delivery dropped 0.1 percent to $7.4075 a bushel.
Rubber futures in Tokyo recovered from a one-week low as Japan’s currency traded at the weakest level in almost three years, raising the appeal of yen-denominated contracts.
The contract for delivery in July rose 0.2 percent to 331 yen a kilogram ($3,511 a metric ton) on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange at 11:41 a.m. Futures recovered after dropping to 323.4 yen in after-hours trading on Feb. 8, the lowest level since Feb. 4. The most-active contract has gained 9.4 percent this year.

2:49 PM

alphaadvisory

Glencore International PLC (GLEN.LN) reported Tuesday a mixed set of production results on a pro-forma basis with Xstrata PLC (XTA.LN) as base metals output largely fell in 2012 while coal, oil, and agricultural output rose.
The report marks the first set of production results provided by Glencore on a pro-forma basis ahead of the completion of its planned all-share merger with Xstrata. Glencore is still waiting for regulatory approval from China before closing the deal. Glencore and Xstrata last month extended the deadline for closing the deal to March 15 in order to secure necessary regulatory approvals.
Glencore didn't provide any details about its marketing activities, a key earnings generator for the combined company.
The pro-forma figures showed that total copper contained production fell 9% to 1.2 million metric tons while total zinc contained output fell 1% to 1.59 million tons. The figures are based on using feed from its own sources and excludes feed from third parties. Total lead contained output from its own feed rose 4% and nickel contained output from its own feed rose 3% while gold output from its own feed fell 8% to 1.56 million troy ounces.
On the energy front, its own coal production rose 26% to 132.2 million tons while its share of oil output rose more than eight-fold to 5.36 million barrels due to the ramp up of Glencore's joint-venture Aseng oil field in Equatorial Guinea ahead of schedule. The company expects oil output from the Alen field to begin in the third quarter of 2013.
On the agricultural front, output rose 16% to 8.75 million tons as higher sugarcane processing and oilseed crushing offset declines in rice milling and farming among other things.
At 0809 GMT, Glencore's shares were down 0.2% at 386 pence a share while Xstrata's shares were down 0.3% at 1,157 pence. Meanwhile, the U.K.'s FTSE 350 mining index was down 0.2%.

2:44 PM

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2:23 PM

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Home Technical Analysis Report

MCX Mentha Oil retreats from bullish territory, rally over

Author : John Godson

February 12, 2013 13:55

MCX Mentha Oil was trading at higher levels for a week. Lower volumes have made Mentha Oil retreat from bullish territory.

After the recovery from 1306 levels; sudden spike was developed in the charts with a 90 degree angle, hence sudden fall is expected as the strength of the rally is not sufficient for an upward movement for the week.

On charts, Mentha Oil tracks are showing a sideways phenomenon as it is recovering from the overbought territory. 20 day SMA crossover at 1324 levels, the commodity has been maintained above the levels. MACD is still negative, RSI at 54.73 is neutral and stochastic level recovered from overbought territory is moving to the medium levels.

Rate of change oscillator was neutral, hence an up or down trend is to be expected. When mentha oil price breach 1384 levels, it may witness a steady decline to 1330 levels. Strong support is now seen at 1360 levels.

S1: 1384 S2: 1360
R1: 1411 R2: 1418
Trend: Bearish

11:52 AM

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Natural rubber production of India declined by 5 per cent to 97,000 tons in January. The consumption also fell by 9 per cent to 75,000 tons during the period, according to data from Rubber Board.
The country had produced 1,02,500 tons natural rubber while it had consumed 82,535 tons in January 2012.Natural rubber imports fell by 18 per cent to 28,905 tons in January 2013.
The export jumped by more than five-fold to 4,850 tons. For the first ten months this fiscal, natural rubber output rose marginally to 7,90,200 tons from 7,84,400 tons in April-January of 2011-12 fiscal

10:49 AM

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Mumbai: The rupee Tuesday fell by 12 paise to 53.97 against the dollar in early trade, extending losses for the fifth straight session at the Interbank Foreign Exchange (Forex) market due to sustained demand for the US currency from importers.

Forex dealers said besides increased demand for the US dollar from importers, RBI concerns that the country's current account deficit is headed to its highest ever this fiscal, also put pressure on the rupee.

The domestic currency had lost 35 paise to end at nearly two-week low level of 53.85 in yesterday's trade.

Meanwhile, the BSE benchmark index Sensex recovered by 50.20 points, or 0.26 percent, to 19,510.77 in early trade Tuesday.

10:23 AM

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Silver Climbs as Gold Little Changed Before Euro Finance Meeting

1:01 PM

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Silver gained, while gold was little changed before European finance chiefs meet today to discuss aid to Cyprus and Greece. Palladium declined.
Silver for immediate delivery advanced as much as 0.3 percent to $31.495 an ounce before trading at $31.4775 at 1:16 p.m. in Singapore. Cash gold traded at $1,668.25 an ounce, while palladium fell 0.4 percent to $752.25 an ounce. Markets in Japan, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Singapore and Malaysia are closed today for public holidays.
Euro-area ministers are seeking to win back momentum in fighting the crisis as a tightening contest before Italian elections on Feb. 24-25 and a political scandal in Spain disrupt market calm. European leaders set the budget for 2014-2020 at 960 billion euros ($1.3 trillion), down from an original proposal of 1.047 trillion euros and less than the 994 billion euros spent in the current cycle.
“Given Asia is shut down for the new year holiday, it allows markets internationally to focus on what’s happening in the EU,” said Gavin Wendt, a senior resource analyst and founder of Mine Life Pty in Sydney. The meeting of finance ministers will be “closely watched,” he said by phone today.
Gold for April delivery rose as much as 0.2 percent to $1,670 an ounce on the Comex and was at $1,668.60. Futures were little changed at 30,827 rupees per 10 grams ($1,785.52 an ounce) on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd.
Spot platinum was also little changed at $1,715.75 an ounce after climbing 1.9 percent last week. Holdings in exchange- traded products backed by the metal reached a record 51.77 metric tons on Feb. 8, data compiled by Bloomberg show, as output may drop in South Africa, producer of about 73 percent of world supply.
Bullish platinum wagers grew 3.9 percent to 42,530 contracts in the week ended Feb. 5, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Gold fell 0.4 percent this year as platinum climbed 11 percent.

12:24 PM

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11:11 AM

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After Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index (Sensex) and National Stock Exchange (Nifty), India now has a third index called SX40 launched by the MCX Stock Exchange (MCS-SX) which has commenced operations on Monday.
MCX-SX said that the SX40 is a free float based index of 40 large cap - liquid stocks representing diversified sectors of the economy.SX40 is designed to measure the economic performance with better representation of various industries and sectors based on ICB®, leading global Industry classification system from FTSE. The Index is devised to offer cost-effective support for investment and structured products such as index futures and option, index portfolio, exchange traded funds, Index funds, etc.
SX40 includes companies that have a minimum free float of 10%and is within the top 100 liquid companies, MCX-SX Managing Director & Chief Executive Joseph Massey said.
Key Features of SX 40
-Superior return & risk adjusted return
- A unique Index of India benchmarking global best practices of index designing
-Better Reflection of the Organized Sector in the Economy through
enhanced industry representation using ICB® of FTSE
- Rule based, transparent & replicable
- Industry capping eliminates industry bias and enhances Index stability
- Lower churning rate
- Low cost for funds (MFs, ETFs) construction and maintenance
- Low tracking error for passive portfolio management (MFs, ETFs etc)
MCX-SX, the third national stock exchange in India was formally inaugurated by Finance Minister P Chidambaram on Saturday.

10:44 AM

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Brent crude oil prices are trading near nine month highs as Iran has decided it would not cede to demands from the West.
Iran’s international relations grabbed the spotlight last week, with the country’s supreme leader Khomeni rejecting the US offer for nuclear talks, providing a further hurdle for diplomacy.
Meanwhile, “the relatively positive outlook for international demand is continuing,” said Ric Spooner, a chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney to Bloomberg as he referred to crude oil demand.
“The U.S. inventory data, retail sales and industrial production figures toward the end of the week will give an insight into the short-term activity in the U.S.” he added.
Brent crude for delivery on April 13 was seen trading at $117.74 a barrel, a loss of $0.07 or 0.06% as of 10.31 AM IST.
Conditional talks?
And in a battle of political relevance, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said he is ready to have talks with the US on nuclear issues, but on condition! Ahmadinejad added that no power will be able to impose its will on the Iranians.
"You pull away the gun from the face of the Iranian nation, and I myself will enter the talks with you," Ahmadinejad decalred at a ceremony marking the 34th anniversary of the 1979 revolution that toppled Iran’s erstwhile ruler Shah.
"Today, because of dishonorable pressure by enemies, people are under pressure. The government is concerned about the uneasy situation of a big portion of the country." He was quoted by The Guardian as saying.
The Western powers are unlikely to lift sanctions.
On India's MCX, crude oil for delivery on February 19 was seen trading at Rs.5144 a barrel, a loss of 0.16% as of 10.29 AM IST.

10:33 AM

alphaadvisory

1. Keep adding to losing positions.
What the heck, price bound to turn soon. Martingale method sounds great. Consider adding on double to loosing trades. When price turns I’ll laughing all the way to the bank even I have to close my initial entries at loss.

2. Don’t use any stop-loss
Why bother with stop-loss. It’s for pussies anyways

3. Don’t waste time with money management
Thank you very much but I already know how to manage my own money. Why bother with money management nonsense.

I can use my time doing more trading and making money instead delving into all that mumbo-jumbo technical jargon.

4. Keep trading
I cannot afford to loose any opportunities. I need to be always in markets, day in day out. After all life is to short to waste golden opportunities. I cannot afford them passing by me.

5. I trust my great indicators
Why bother to learn to read charts and all that price action garbage while my sweet indicators are doing it for me. Leave the hard work to those suckers.

6. Buy the bottoms and sell the tops
I cannot understand why those people wasting their time trying to read charts. When price moves up significantly I sell, when price moves down I buy. Simple, buy low sell high as the saying goes.

7. Always check media and internet for good tips.
Let those suckers do the hard work again and I just use their work. After all all those experienced people in media cannot be far of from the truth as they have the insight knowledge.

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Thursday, February 28, 2013

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Bernanke faces opposition on inflation record

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