Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks Weekly
COPPER: DOWN 5279
ALUMINIUM: DOWN 9224
ZINC: UP 497
LEAD: UP 649
RUBBER: UP 7357
Friday, December 27, 2013
You are here:HomeMarket MCX sinks 9% after board asks promoter FTIL to cut stake
1:27 PM
alphaadvisory
Shares of Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) and Financial Technologies fell
sharply on Friday after the board of MCX asked promoter FTIL to reduce
its stake to 2 per cent, in accordance with the regulator's order.
MCX fell as much as 9 per cent to Rs. 431, while FTIL shares fell 6.67 per cent to a low of Rs. 161.50.
Last week, the Forward Markets Commission (FMC) had issued an order declaring FTIL and its chief Jignesh Shah unfit to run any exchange, including the MCX, following a Rs. 5,600 crore payment crisis at group company National Spot Exchange Ltd (NSEL).
The regulator said Shah was the "highest beneficiary of the fraud perpetrated" at NSEL.
The NSEL, which is promoted by FTIL, has been defaulting on payments to 13,000 investors. It plunged into the payment crisis after halting trading in commodities from August 1 on a government directive.
The MCX board of directors at a meeting on Thursday decided to advise FTIL to implement the FMC order by reducing its stake in the company to 2 per cent or below from 26 per cent within a period of one month.
As of 12.55 p.m., MCX shares traded 3.75 per cent lower at Rs. 455, while FTIL traded 2.6 per cent lower at Rs. 168.50.
MCX fell as much as 9 per cent to Rs. 431, while FTIL shares fell 6.67 per cent to a low of Rs. 161.50.
Last week, the Forward Markets Commission (FMC) had issued an order declaring FTIL and its chief Jignesh Shah unfit to run any exchange, including the MCX, following a Rs. 5,600 crore payment crisis at group company National Spot Exchange Ltd (NSEL).
The regulator said Shah was the "highest beneficiary of the fraud perpetrated" at NSEL.
The NSEL, which is promoted by FTIL, has been defaulting on payments to 13,000 investors. It plunged into the payment crisis after halting trading in commodities from August 1 on a government directive.
The MCX board of directors at a meeting on Thursday decided to advise FTIL to implement the FMC order by reducing its stake in the company to 2 per cent or below from 26 per cent within a period of one month.
As of 12.55 p.m., MCX shares traded 3.75 per cent lower at Rs. 455, while FTIL traded 2.6 per cent lower at Rs. 168.50.
Monday, September 30, 2013
10 things to know about the US government shutdown
11:14 AM
alphaadvisory
The BSE Sensex fell over 200 points, while the rupee slipped past the 63 per dollar on Monday amid a political standoff in the US that threatens to slow growth and spook investors worldwide. The Wall Street fell on Friday for the sixth day out of the last seven as nervous investors fretted about whether the government could shut down this week.
Here's your 10-point cheat-sheet on the global development:
Democrats, Republicans in showdown over shutdown: The Republican-controlled House of Representatives on Saturday passed a proposal to delay by a year key parts of President Barack Obama's health care law and repeal a tax on medical devices, in exchange for avoiding a shutdown. The Senate is slated to convene Monday afternoon and Majority Leader Harry Reid has already promised that Democrats will kill the House's latest proposal.
What is the US government shutdown? It is a political situation in which the government stops providing for all but "essential" services such as police, fire fighting, etc. So unless Congress raises the federal borrowing cap (the legal limit on how much debt the US government can pile up), some of the government would shut down on October 1 as it will run out of money to pay its bills.
Why will the government stop funding services? The US budget year ends on September 30. The House of Representatives and Senate are considering bills to fund the government past the deadline. But Republicans want to cut off funding for President Barack Obama's health care law as a condition of passing the spending measure. The Senate and the White House are unwilling to agree. Unless one side essentially blinks, a partial shutdown of the government will occur.
Has it happened before? The US federal government has shut down on 17 occasions since 1976.
How will it affect US citizens? About one-third of the government will shut down. About 800,000 of about 2.1 million federal employees will be sent home without pay. National parks will close. The Environmental Protection Agency, NASA and other agencies will close most operations. The military and other agencies involving safety and security would continue to function.
What would be the effect on the economy? A three-week shutdown would slow the economy's annual growth rate in the October-December quarter by up to 0.9 percentage point, Goldman Sachs estimates. If so, the growth rate next quarter would be a scant 1.6 per cent, compared with the 2.5 per cent that many economists now forecast.
What if Congress can't agree to raise the cap in time? It could be disastrous. The government might be forced to immediately slash spending by 32 per cent, the Bipartisan Policy Center estimates. The government could miss interest payments on Treasurys, triggering a first-ever default by the U.S. government. U.S. Treasurys are held by banks, governments and individuals worldwide. Ultimately, a prolonged default could lead to a global financial crisis.
Will the economy escape harm if both deadlines are met? Probably. The last major fight over the borrowing cap, in the summer of 2011, wasn't resolved until hours before the deadline. Even though the deadline was met, Standard & Poor's issued the first-ever downgrade of long-term U.S. credit. That, in turn, led to a 635-point plunge in the Dow Jones industrial average the next day. The International Monetary Fund estimated last month that U.S. budget disputes, like the 2011 showdown, can slow annual growth by up to 0.5 percentage points in other parts of the world.
What about financial markets? The price declines in stock markets have been modest so far as investors feel they have seen this movie before and know how it ends: with another last-minute deal.
High volatility and weak dollar: Andrew Freris of BNP Paribas Wealth Management told NDTV that a possible shutdown will lead to sharp volatility in stock markets and will lead to a weakening of the US dollar, though temporarily.
Wednesday, September 18, 2013
Friday, September 13, 2013
Thursday, September 12, 2013
Wednesday, September 11, 2013
More correction likely in Indian markets in near future: JPMorgan AMC
12:20 PM
alphaadvisory
More correction likely in Indian markets in near future: JPMorgan AMC http://ecoti.ms/faopCb
5 psychological traps that can ruin your investments
12:18 PM
alphaadvisory
5 psychological traps that can ruin your investments http://profit.ndtv.com/news/your-money/article-5-psychological-traps-that-can-ruin-your-investments-326995 …
Foreign investors buy Rs. 5000 crore worth of shares in 4 days
12:15 PM
alphaadvisory
http://profit.ndtv.com/news/market/article-foreign-investors-buy-rs-5000-crore-worth-of-shares-in-4-days-326994 …
Monday, August 26, 2013
Sensex up 144 points in early trade
10:15 AM
alphaadvisory
Rupee, bonds weaken at open; further falls expected
10:05 AM
alphaadvisory
Mumbai: The rupee on Monday again turned weak and plunged 70 paise to 63.90 against the US dollar in early trade after strong recovery on Friday, due to increased demand for the American currency from importers and some banks.
Dealers said besides increased month-end demand for dollar from importers, dollar's gain against some currencies overseas put pressure on the domestic currency.
However, a higher opening in the domestic equity market, capped the rupee's fall, they said.
The rupee had made a stunning comeback by rising 135 paise to close at 63.20, its second-biggest rise in a decade against the dollar on Friday.
Meanwhile, the BSE benchmark Sensex rose further by 143.77, or 0.78 percent, at 18,663.21 in early trade today.
Wednesday, August 21, 2013
Financial Tech slips 20% as NSEL defaults on payout
10:57 AM
alphaadvisory
NEW DELHI: Financial Technologies (India) Ltd plunged as much as 20 per cent in morning trade after its subsidiary National Spot Exchange (NSEL) defaulted on payments to investors on Tuesday.
The first payout from borrowers on NSEL to 148 broker members, representing 13,000 investors, was unsuccessful with the exchange managing to recover Rs 92.12 crore against the Rs 174.72 crore it was supposed to pay out every week for the next five months beginning August 20.
The total amount due to be paid out is Rs 5574.31 crore over 30 weeks.
At 09:40 a.m.; Financial Technologies recouped some of the morning losses and was trading 6.3 per cent lower at Rs 132.40. It has hit a low of Rs 113.05 and a high of Rs 140 in trade today.
Shares in Multi Commodity Exchange of India, another FT-promoted entity were locked in upper circuit on the Bombay Stock Exchange. The stock was up 5 per cent at Rs 281.55.
On Tuesday, market regulator FMC wrote a letter to the bourse's board saying it risked losing its "fit and proper person" status, and warned that in the event of such an "eventuality" it could not continue to hold directorship or shareholding in MCX or any other recognised commodity futures exchange.
" Anjani Sinha, MD & CEO, and six other officials of NSEL were stripped of their posts on Tuesday after the troubled bourse failed to clear its first payout," ET reported.
"NSEL's inability to meet the payout obligations may also cast a cloud of doubt on NSEL promoter FTIL's fitness to retain control over other exchanges such as MCX and MCX-SX," added the ET report.
Rupee could touch 70 Vs dollar in a month or so
10:56 AM
alphaadvisory
Mumbai: The rupee could touch 70 against the US dollar in a month or so, although some revival is expected in the currency by the end of the year, Deutsche Bank said in a report on Wednesday.
"We continue to believe that fundamentally the rupee is undervalued and has overshot its equilibrium level substantially, but as numerous episodes of past currency crises have amply demonstrated, under a scenario of deep pessimism, currencies can overshoot substantially and remain so for a long time," economists at the bank wrote in the report.
"India, we fear, is entering such a zone".
The partially convertible rupee dropped to a record low of 64.13 per dollar on Tuesday and was trading at 63.38/42 on Wednesday, weaker than its close of 63.25/26.
Monday, August 19, 2013
Wednesday, August 14, 2013
Tuesday, August 13, 2013
Monday, August 12, 2013
Thursday, August 8, 2013
Wednesday, August 7, 2013
Oil futures hold mild gain after inventory decline http://on.mktw.net/189iUXS
12:07 PM
alphaadvisory
Infra stocks now going cheaper than a kilo of onions | Business Standard: http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/infra-stocks-now-going-cheaper-than-a-kilo-of-onions-113080700314_1.html#.UgHlig4HE3c.twitter …
12:05 PM
alphaadvisory
Tuesday, August 6, 2013
Monday, April 8, 2013
Bearish sentiments on Spot Gold; RSI negative
11:55 AM
alphaadvisory
Gold closed sharply higher due to short covering on Friday and the high
range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to
bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If it extends this week's decline, the June 2011 low crossing is the
next downside target. Closes above the 20day moving average crossing
would confirm that a short term low
Spot silver may witness short covering at lower levels
11:54 AM
alphaadvisory
Spot silver may witness short covering at lower levels
April 08, 2013 11:40
China Buys 1 Million Tons U.S. Wheat After Price Drops
11:53 AM
alphaadvisory
China, the world’s biggest consumer
of wheat, bought almost 1 million metric tons from the U.S. as
prices slumped 30 percent from a four-year high reached in July,
state-owned researcher grain.gov.cn said. Wheat jumped as much
as 1.4 percent after the news.
The country on April 4 ordered 14 to 16 cargoes of so- called soft red winter wheat to be shipped from the Gulf of Mexico in the second half, the Beijing-based researcher wrote in a report today. Panamax-sized vessels that carry wheat typically take cargoes weighing about 60,000 tons.
Imports may reach a “relatively high level” in the 2013-2014 marketing year, after reaching a projected 3 million tons in the current year, according to the report.
U.S. soft red winter wheat, including cost and freight, was quoted between $325 and $330 per ton on arrival at Chinese ports on April 5, equivalent to between 2,430 yuan a 2,470 yuan a ton after tax, according to the report. At Guangzhou port, the price of domestically produced so-called Jiangsu red wheat cost about 200 yuan more, according to grain.gov.cn., which is a unit of the China National Grain & Oils Information Center.
Wheat for May delivery added as much as 1.4 percent to $7.0875 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade and was at $7.06 at 11:33 a.m. in Singapore on volume almost double the 100-day average for that time.
The country on April 4 ordered 14 to 16 cargoes of so- called soft red winter wheat to be shipped from the Gulf of Mexico in the second half, the Beijing-based researcher wrote in a report today. Panamax-sized vessels that carry wheat typically take cargoes weighing about 60,000 tons.
Imports may reach a “relatively high level” in the 2013-2014 marketing year, after reaching a projected 3 million tons in the current year, according to the report.
U.S. soft red winter wheat, including cost and freight, was quoted between $325 and $330 per ton on arrival at Chinese ports on April 5, equivalent to between 2,430 yuan a 2,470 yuan a ton after tax, according to the report. At Guangzhou port, the price of domestically produced so-called Jiangsu red wheat cost about 200 yuan more, according to grain.gov.cn., which is a unit of the China National Grain & Oils Information Center.
Wheat for May delivery added as much as 1.4 percent to $7.0875 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade and was at $7.06 at 11:33 a.m. in Singapore on volume almost double the 100-day average for that time.
Tuesday, March 26, 2013
Market Metaphors and Perception
12:40 PM
alphaadvisory
What we perceive is not just a
function of what is out there, but also the lenses that we wear. Many of
our cognitive lenses are so much a part of our thinking that we forget
they are there. We assume that what we’re perceiving is what objectively
exists…but that’s not always the case.
Some of the most powerful lenses are the metaphors that we use in describing markets. Consider the following:
* A trader views the market as an enemy to be conquered;
* A trader approaches the market as a puzzle to be solved;
* A trader sees the market as a paradise of potential riches;
* A trader regards the market as a mistress to be wooed;
* A trader views the market as a dangerous minefield;
* A trader looks at the market as a video game.
How do these metaphors affect our trading? Our emotional responses to trading? How would being aware of our metaphors–and shifting them–change how we trade and how we experience our trading?
Some of the most powerful lenses are the metaphors that we use in describing markets. Consider the following:
* A trader views the market as an enemy to be conquered;
* A trader approaches the market as a puzzle to be solved;
* A trader sees the market as a paradise of potential riches;
* A trader regards the market as a mistress to be wooed;
* A trader views the market as a dangerous minefield;
* A trader looks at the market as a video game.
How do these metaphors affect our trading? Our emotional responses to trading? How would being aware of our metaphors–and shifting them–change how we trade and how we experience our trading?
China February refined Nickel imports up 8% y y at 13 1Kt
12:39 PM
alphaadvisory
Given only modest signs of improving stainless activity and a firmly
shut import arbitrage window (which has been the case since October last
year), there is little from a fundamental perspective to explain either
the m/m variation or overall y/y strength in refined imports seen
during the January-February period.
Friday, March 22, 2013
Cyprus Plan B: A defining moment for Silver and Gold
10:56 AM
alphaadvisory
LONDON(Commodity Online): Cyprus turmoil—though a
small country it may look to be; too small to be bailed out—has assumed
mammoth proportions. The news reports suggest that Cyprus Parliament
members are poised to vote on a Plan B. The moment is a defining one as
far as silver and gold futures are concerned.
The said plan may include setting up an 'investment solidarity fund' that would issue bonds on state assets to raise the 5.8bn euros required. The plan may also see the restructuring of Cyprus banking sector wherein bad assets would be pooled and good assets collated under a different head. The Parliament may also enact laws and impose stringent capital controls so that a capital flight is not seen when banks open next week.
Meanwhile, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank decided to maintain the current level of Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) until Monday, for Cyprus.
Thereafter, Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) could only be considered if an EU/IMF programme is in place that would ensure the solvency of the concerned banks in the island nation.
If Cyprus Plan B fails to get a clearance in the Parliament, Cyprus will have to exit Eurozone and start printing its own currency. That would be catastrophic and may prove to be tempting for nations like Greece and who knows, Italy and Spain!
If Europe falls into turmoil, and bank runs spread in a contagion, then gold, silver prices may go up putting a space shuttle to shame.
The said plan may include setting up an 'investment solidarity fund' that would issue bonds on state assets to raise the 5.8bn euros required. The plan may also see the restructuring of Cyprus banking sector wherein bad assets would be pooled and good assets collated under a different head. The Parliament may also enact laws and impose stringent capital controls so that a capital flight is not seen when banks open next week.
Meanwhile, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank decided to maintain the current level of Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) until Monday, for Cyprus.
Thereafter, Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) could only be considered if an EU/IMF programme is in place that would ensure the solvency of the concerned banks in the island nation.
If Cyprus Plan B fails to get a clearance in the Parliament, Cyprus will have to exit Eurozone and start printing its own currency. That would be catastrophic and may prove to be tempting for nations like Greece and who knows, Italy and Spain!
If Europe falls into turmoil, and bank runs spread in a contagion, then gold, silver prices may go up putting a space shuttle to shame.
Wednesday, March 20, 2013
TRADING SOFTWARE FOR RS. 2,500
5:36 PM
alphaadvisory
TRADING SOFTWARE FOR RS.. 2,500. .WITH 90 % ACCURACY ,AUTO BUY & SELL SIGNALS , ...MORE CONTACT : 8220237979
Friday, March 15, 2013
Thursday, March 14, 2013
DATA TO WATCH 2:30pm EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin Day 1 EUR EU Economic Summit 3:30pm EUR Employment Change q/q 6:00pm USD PPI m/m 6:00pm USD Unemployment Claims 6:00pm USD Current Account 6:30pm USD FOMC Member Raskin Speaks 8:00pm USD Natural Gas Storage 10:30pm USD 30-y Bond Auction
1:16 PM
alphaadvisory
5 THOUGHTS FOR TRADERS - MUST READ
11:02 AM
alphaadvisory
1. We want all trades to be winners. The
foolproof system for trading profits is attractive and the seller of
such systems can be convincing, yet the profits are elusive. The market
could care less about our system, a past trading record, or the trading
record of the one selling the system. You do know that the market’s
attorney requires that the following be posted in a prominent place…like
on our foreheads beside the big L sign!: “Past results are not
indicative of future returns.” By the way, the market says, “you’re
doing it wrong”.
2. We want to add to losers. The
last time I checked the only reason we add to a loser is when the
discussion is about our weight! Get on the scales and add up more
losing pounds! Be the BIGGEST LOSER! The market, however, says the way
to tip the scales in our favor is to add to the winners and lighten up
on the losers. To do otherwise is to “do it wrong”.
3. We want to be right.
Two wrongs don’t make a right in life but in the stock market two
wrongs (and plenty more) will help you get on the right road to making
money. The market says the trading game is about making money not
about stroking the ego. The “right” road is the “wrong” road when your
on Wall Street. Hey, if you doing it to be right, then you’re “doing
it wrong!”
4. We want the market to follow our common sense rules. The
market has two rules and two rules only: know when and why to buy and
when and why to sell. If you try to get too cute with the market or try
to have the market make sense it may just kick you around a little bit,
imprinting the following on your behind: “You’re doing it wrong”.
5. We have expectations to make a fortune in the market…right now! Mr
Market is in the business of frustrating anyone who builds all their
hopes and dreams on expecting the market to give them something right
now; like it is deserved and long overdue. The market does not give or
take away. The market is no respecter of persons or of time. The market
just is. If we harbor expectations that are not quickly fulfilled then
we have no one to blame but ourselves for having the wrong expectations
to begin with! We should expect the market to do nothing but reward us
for our humbled, patience, egoless attitude, surprised when we make
money and thankful for the lesson when we do not. If we are arrogant,
expecting riches untold for our superior technical and fundamental
skills, the market has a few words for us: “you’re doing it wrong!”
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
Commodity Momentum: Focus on silver
6:16 PM
alphaadvisory
Our commodity momentum monitor is showing no change from yesterday in
what turned out to be a relatively quiet day. All four metals however
managed to pop higher but so far the follow-through remains elusive with
gold getting stuck ahead of USD 1600/oz and silver running tired before
attempting a test of the late February high at USD 29.45/oz. Silver has
the potential of returning to positive momentum today but it requires
maintaining current levels above 29.
Oil markets, especially WTI crude oil, ticked higher with the discount to Brent crude narrowing to the lowest level in five weeks. Apart from new pipeline capacity in the US making it possible to move more WTI oil from the production area in the central US to Gulf Coast refineries, the continued easing of the tightening (lower backwardation) seen recently in the front end of the Brent futures curve has also helped.
OPEC raised its output to a three-month high last month according to their latest update while the IEA today cut its 2013 estimate for global oil demand. Both organisations currently see demand side risk while the supply side is supported by a continued ramp-up in US production on track to reach the highest level in three decades. Weekly US inventory data are due later today at 14:30 GMT.
Oil markets, especially WTI crude oil, ticked higher with the discount to Brent crude narrowing to the lowest level in five weeks. Apart from new pipeline capacity in the US making it possible to move more WTI oil from the production area in the central US to Gulf Coast refineries, the continued easing of the tightening (lower backwardation) seen recently in the front end of the Brent futures curve has also helped.
OPEC raised its output to a three-month high last month according to their latest update while the IEA today cut its 2013 estimate for global oil demand. Both organisations currently see demand side risk while the supply side is supported by a continued ramp-up in US production on track to reach the highest level in three decades. Weekly US inventory data are due later today at 14:30 GMT.
LME Base Metals Inventory: Copper +2600, Aluminum -1450, Nickel -270, Lead -1900, Zinc -1125
3:07 PM
alphaadvisory
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
Monday, March 11, 2013
Crude oil prices fall slightly after US government reports surprisingly strong job growth
1:08 PM
alphaadvisory
The price of oil fell Monday after a stronger jobs growth in the U.S.
sparked speculation of an earlier end to the Federal Reserve's loose
monetary policy.
Benchmark oil for April delivery was down 23 cents to $91.72 a barrel at midday Bangkok time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The contract rose 39 cents to finish at $91.95 a barrel on Friday after the U.S. government said employers added 236,000 jobs in February, far exceeding predictions. The unemployment rate fell to 7.7 percent from 7.9 percent.
While the improved jobs picture bodes well for growth, analysts said it could also signal an earlier end to the Federal Reserve's bond-buying program, dubbed quantitative easing, which has been instrumental in propping up the U.S. economy since the 2008 global financial crisis.
Caroline Bain, commodities analyst at Economist Intelligence Unit, said that if U.S. economic data continues to be strong, that investors might anticipate that quantitative easing would be wound down "sooner rather than later and this would be negative for oil prices as it suggests lower investor inflows."
The Fed has been keeping interest rates near record lows to boost lending and investment. But it also serves to draw money away from bonds and into stocks and commodities.
Recent gains by the dollar against the Japanese yen and the euro also put pressure on oil prices. A stronger dollar makes oil a less enticing investment for traders using those other currencies, since oil is traded in dollars.
Brent crude, used to price many kinds of oil imported by U.S. refineries, was down 34 cents to $110.51 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.
Benchmark oil for April delivery was down 23 cents to $91.72 a barrel at midday Bangkok time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The contract rose 39 cents to finish at $91.95 a barrel on Friday after the U.S. government said employers added 236,000 jobs in February, far exceeding predictions. The unemployment rate fell to 7.7 percent from 7.9 percent.
While the improved jobs picture bodes well for growth, analysts said it could also signal an earlier end to the Federal Reserve's bond-buying program, dubbed quantitative easing, which has been instrumental in propping up the U.S. economy since the 2008 global financial crisis.
Caroline Bain, commodities analyst at Economist Intelligence Unit, said that if U.S. economic data continues to be strong, that investors might anticipate that quantitative easing would be wound down "sooner rather than later and this would be negative for oil prices as it suggests lower investor inflows."
The Fed has been keeping interest rates near record lows to boost lending and investment. But it also serves to draw money away from bonds and into stocks and commodities.
Recent gains by the dollar against the Japanese yen and the euro also put pressure on oil prices. A stronger dollar makes oil a less enticing investment for traders using those other currencies, since oil is traded in dollars.
Brent crude, used to price many kinds of oil imported by U.S. refineries, was down 34 cents to $110.51 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.
Three Stages of Trading
10:53 AM
alphaadvisory
These three are mutually inclusive.
Without each working together to create the whole, managing your trading
success will be difficult. Simple really but difficult to manage. But
once managed very difficult to complicate.
ACTION + RESPONSE = COMPLICATED AS IT CAUSES CONFUSION
PREPARATION + ACTION = COMPLICATED AS IT CAUSES DOUBT
PREPARATION + RESPONSE = NOT POSSIBLE WITHOUT TAKING ACTION
PREPARATION + ACTION + RESPONSE = MANAGEABLE SIMPLICITY
ACTION + RESPONSE = COMPLICATED AS IT CAUSES CONFUSION
PREPARATION + ACTION = COMPLICATED AS IT CAUSES DOUBT
PREPARATION + RESPONSE = NOT POSSIBLE WITHOUT TAKING ACTION
PREPARATION + ACTION + RESPONSE = MANAGEABLE SIMPLICITY
Friday, March 8, 2013
Beginners Guide For Indian Stock Market
12:13 PM
alphaadvisory
Stock market is a
market where each and every person want to try his/her own luck and want
to become rich easily and faster. But this is partially true in stock
market, here no one becomes rich easier, but yes they can become rich
faster. There should be various strategies set by the trader or investor
who is going to enter stock market, because without making strategies
first nobody ever had won anything. Most of the people who are going to
trade in stock market dont know anything about that market, but they
just wanna trade or invest to check their luck and destiny and some of
the others want to earn maximum money out of it as much as they can.
Stock Tips is one which helps us to invest in stock market either it's INDIAN
STOCK MARKET or world stock market tips. Today we can see various free
stock tips providers and paid tips providers who provides share tips
free through chats, social networking sites, any where on web and you
can get paid stock tips from investment advisory. Stock experts uses a
systematic form of analysis and give the intraday tips in order to give
maximum satisfaction to the investors which will help them in best
trading. The intraday stock tips can be short term and will depend on
the expert analyst or investors outlook for the particular stocks price.
Stock Tips are suggested to the investors in the Indian Stock market to
provide them to gain healthy profit. Intraday stock tips are used by
most of the people but only some of them able to make from the share
market. A Stock Tips is help to done safe work in the share market.
There are various tips in the stock market intraday stock tips, future
stock tips and nifty stock tips. Before taking any kind of investment
decision you must know how your investment will work and all of your
transaction. Make a simple strategy to clarify your goals. This will
help you to clarify where to done trading and also on which scrip. Keep
your danger less by intraday trading and grows your profits and take
money home every day. Investor can create very huge profit every day
with less investment in this way and create large profit at the end of
the trading session.
A variation of Guidelines, share tips and trading tips can help professional traders and even novice investors build better investments any day. Along with professional financial institution there exists a benefit elegance, which can give you an even better revisit on these trying time; this is the stock market and welcome to the volatility. On line trading is recognized globally as an effortless technique to get you to a smart decision as long as the money is concerned and profit is the only thing you aim for.
A variation of Guidelines, share tips and trading tips can help professional traders and even novice investors build better investments any day. Along with professional financial institution there exists a benefit elegance, which can give you an even better revisit on these trying time; this is the stock market and welcome to the volatility. On line trading is recognized globally as an effortless technique to get you to a smart decision as long as the money is concerned and profit is the only thing you aim for.
Thursday, March 7, 2013
Natural Gas analysis: Expects short term rally on 20 day MA crossover
12:17 PM
alphaadvisory
Natural Gas closed lower on Wednesday and the low range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI
are neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near term. If it extends this week rally, January's high
crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20day moving
average crossing are needed to confirm that a short term top has been
posted.
US Oil futures to open steady on positive indicators
12:17 PM
alphaadvisory
US Oil closed lower on Wednesday and the midrange close sets the stage
for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish
signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If it
extends this week decline, the 87% retracement level of the
November-February rally crossing is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20day moving average crossing would confirm that a low has
been posted.
Wednesday, March 6, 2013
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
Trading Wisdom
1:27 PM
alphaadvisory
If
we want to be successful as traders it is crucial that we have great
filters. We must filter out all the noise that separates us from the
actual price action. In the end it is just us versus the market. We need
to seek to learn how to trade from others and not look for trades. We
have to play a lone hand because we have our own tolerance for pain, our
own goals, and we should have our own trading plan with a robust
methodology. Others do not know our time frame and we do not know
theirs. Their position sizing may be ten times what ours is.
Before
we trade we should have a watch list, a risk percent per trade, a
methodology, and a trading plan. We should be running our trading like a
business not a casino. Information and opinions can bias our trading.
Be very careful about the information that you let into your mind. You
should attempt to trade as close to your system and methodology as
possible without allowing anyone’s opinions our thoughts to come between
you and the charts. Actual price action is the king everyone’s opinions
are just that, opinions.
It
is dangerous to be a trader and not know who you are. If you know your
risk, your methodology, and your trading plan then there is nothing to
do but work on mastering that plan. if you do not know who you are as a
trader you will run around asking for opinions and predictions about
what will happen. Since no one has a crystal ball they are just making
projections based on there own methods. Why go fishing for some one
else’s method when you can have your own?
Trader know thyself, know thy plan, and trade it.
Spot Gold Charts: short term low expected on 20 day MA crossover
12:08 PM
alphaadvisory
Gold closed slightly lower on Monday and the low range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish
signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If it
extends the decline off last October's high, last May's low crossing is
the next downside target. Closes above the 20day moving average crossing
would confirm that a short term low has been posted.
Spot Silver analysis: Expects 87% retracement level of June-October rally crossover
12:08 PM
alphaadvisory
Silver closed unchanged on Monday. The low range close set the stage for
a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signalling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If it extends this
month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the June-October rally
crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 20day moving
average crossing would confirm that a short term low has been posted.
Monday, March 4, 2013
US Oil declines on negative fundamentals, bearish trend
4:47 PM
alphaadvisory
US Oil (WTI) crude continues to fall as investors can no longer avoid
the fundamentals of rising inventories and record production in the U.S.
as the shale boom continues to alter the long term dynamics of the oil
industry. Furthermore, we had data releases late last week that showed
slowing manufacturing in the China and contracting factory output in
both the euro zone and the U.K.
WTI traded a range of. Our core short positions we had entered into just below $97.00 are now in significant profit. We had taken profit at our initial target of $91.80. We now expect prices to cascade to below $90 this week. On a break of $90.00 we will be adding aggressively to our short positions. We expect that stockpiles will once again increase in the last week and add further pressure on the prices. At the same time, the risk of market turmoil this week is high and could originate from various events that are unfolding in Europe and the United States.
Compass direction: Bearish
WTI traded a range of. Our core short positions we had entered into just below $97.00 are now in significant profit. We had taken profit at our initial target of $91.80. We now expect prices to cascade to below $90 this week. On a break of $90.00 we will be adding aggressively to our short positions. We expect that stockpiles will once again increase in the last week and add further pressure on the prices. At the same time, the risk of market turmoil this week is high and could originate from various events that are unfolding in Europe and the United States.
Compass direction: Bearish
Crude Oil Lower in Asian Trading
1:26 PM
alphaadvisory
Crude-oil futures edged lower in Asian trade on Monday after Nymex
tumbled 1.5% Friday on concerns about the $85 billion in U.S. automatic
budget cuts started on Friday.
Bearish macroeconomic data from China on Sunday added to worries.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange light, sweet crude futures for delivery in April traded at $90.44 a barrel at 0628 GMT--down $0.24 in the Globex electronic session. April Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange fell $0.04 to $110.36 a barrel.
China's official non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index fell on month in February raising concerns about growth in the world's second-largest economy, a Singapore-based trader said. "Over more recent days worries about QE coming to an end in the U.S. and plentiful supply combined with more bearish sentiment about the outlook for Europe in response to concerns arising from the partial election results in Italy have lowered energy demand," National Australia Bank said in a note Monday.
The lack of pipeline capacity in the U.S. Midwest to shift a surge in U.S. oil production has caused a glut in Nymex which has also weighed on prices, NAB said. As a result, the spread between Nymex and global benchmarks has widened considerably, it added.
The Brent-Nymex spread is up from around US$16/bbl in mid January to more than $19/bbl currently.
"We will continue to suggest a sharp contrast between WTI [Nymex] and Brent fundamentals that should support a lift in April differentials into the $20-$21/bbl," Jim Ritterbusch at Ritterbusch & Associates said in a research note late Friday.
"In addition to the different curve shapes in which the Brent spreads have been strengthening off of Buzzard Field repair we will also cite continued lofty U.S. crude supplies both in total and at Cushing where stocks remain within easy reach of record levels," Mr. Ritterbusch said.
Meanwhile, investors will seek fresh cues from economic data such as the United Kingdom construction PMI for February and from any news coming out of the meeting of euro-zone finance ministers in Brussels scheduled for Monday, a Tokyo-based trader said, tipping psychological support for the U.S. benchmark at $90/bbl.
Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for April--the benchmark gasoline contract--fell 73 points to $3.1213 a gallon while April heating oil traded five points higher at $2.9306.
ICE gasoil for March changed hands at $924.00 a metric ton--up $3.50 from Friday's settlement.
Bearish macroeconomic data from China on Sunday added to worries.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange light, sweet crude futures for delivery in April traded at $90.44 a barrel at 0628 GMT--down $0.24 in the Globex electronic session. April Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange fell $0.04 to $110.36 a barrel.
China's official non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index fell on month in February raising concerns about growth in the world's second-largest economy, a Singapore-based trader said. "Over more recent days worries about QE coming to an end in the U.S. and plentiful supply combined with more bearish sentiment about the outlook for Europe in response to concerns arising from the partial election results in Italy have lowered energy demand," National Australia Bank said in a note Monday.
The lack of pipeline capacity in the U.S. Midwest to shift a surge in U.S. oil production has caused a glut in Nymex which has also weighed on prices, NAB said. As a result, the spread between Nymex and global benchmarks has widened considerably, it added.
The Brent-Nymex spread is up from around US$16/bbl in mid January to more than $19/bbl currently.
"We will continue to suggest a sharp contrast between WTI [Nymex] and Brent fundamentals that should support a lift in April differentials into the $20-$21/bbl," Jim Ritterbusch at Ritterbusch & Associates said in a research note late Friday.
"In addition to the different curve shapes in which the Brent spreads have been strengthening off of Buzzard Field repair we will also cite continued lofty U.S. crude supplies both in total and at Cushing where stocks remain within easy reach of record levels," Mr. Ritterbusch said.
Meanwhile, investors will seek fresh cues from economic data such as the United Kingdom construction PMI for February and from any news coming out of the meeting of euro-zone finance ministers in Brussels scheduled for Monday, a Tokyo-based trader said, tipping psychological support for the U.S. benchmark at $90/bbl.
Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for April--the benchmark gasoline contract--fell 73 points to $3.1213 a gallon while April heating oil traded five points higher at $2.9306.
ICE gasoil for March changed hands at $924.00 a metric ton--up $3.50 from Friday's settlement.
Gold futures tick higher in Asia trading
1:25 PM
alphaadvisory
SYDNEY (MarketWatch) — Gold futures climbed Monday, almost retaking
losses made in the previous session, as investors rediscovered some of
the precious metal’s safe-haven appeal.
Gold for delivery in April
GCJ3
+0.11%
added $4.50 to trade at $1,576.80 an ounce in Asia electronic trading hours.
Reuters
Gold fell $5.80, or 0.4%, to settle at $1,572.30 an ounce on the Comex
division of the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday for the lowest
settlement for a most-active contract since July 18.
By Friday’s close, prices had tallied a three-session drop of more than $43 an ounce, or 2.7%. Read: Gold down a third day, at lowest since mid-July
Gains for the U.S. dollar have dampened gold’s appeal to holders of non-U.S. currencies. The ICE dollar index
DXY
+0.13%
traded at 82.289 on Monday in Asia, up slightly from 82.265 in late North American trading on Friday.
Additionally, ”the resilient U.S. stock market is also playing a roll in
siphoning money away from commodities, with gold being the biggest
loser in this reshuffle,” said INTL FCStone strategist Edward Meir.
What makes an app successful?
The mobile apps industry is booming, with Google and Apple now offering more than 700,000 applications each in their respective stores.
But investors were turning away from stocks Monday, in Asia at least, with Chinese stocks particularly hard-hit. Read: Property stocks sink China but boost Japan
Around the wider metals complex, May silver
SIK3
+0.25%
rose 12 cents to $28.61 an ounce.
Platinum for delivery in April
PLJ3
+0.26%
added $3.40 to $1576.90 an ounce, but June palladium
PAM3
-0.05%
declined $1.30 to $719.10 an ounce.
Copper for delivery in May
HGK3
+0.04%
fell 1 cent to $3.49 per pound. China Property Shares Drag CSI 300 Down Most in 2 Years on Curbs
1:25 PM
alphaadvisory
China’s stocks plunged, dragging
down the CSI 300 (SHSZ300) Index by the most in two years, after the
government ordered more measures to cool property prices and
growth in the nation’s services industries slowed.
The CSI 300, representing the nation’s biggest companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, fell 4.6 percent to 2,545.72 at the close, the most since November 2010, while the Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) slid 3.7 percent to 2,273.40, the most since August 2011. China Vanke Co., the nation’s largest property developer, led a gauge of real-estate companies to the steepest tumble since June 2008. Anhui Conch Cement Co. and Sany Heavy Industry Co. dropped by more than 8 percent.
China’s cabinet on March 1 told cities with “excessively
fast” price gains to raise down-payment requirements and
interest rates on second-home mortgages and ordered individuals
selling properties to “strictly” pay a 20 percent tax on the
sale profit when the original purchase price is available, a
levy that is being easily avoided.
“When there are new rules like these, it extends far beyond property shares,” Zhang Yanbin, an analyst with Zheshang Securities Co. in Shanghai, said by phone today. “There have been talks of property measures in the past few weeks, leading to declines in the market. The news over the weekend was evidence of a detailed measure, hence the loss is much bigger.”
The Shanghai index’s losses pared gains for the year to 0.2 percent and trades for 9.4 times projected 12-month earnings, the lowest since December. The benchmark measure had rallied as much as 24 percent from an almost three-year low on Dec. 3 on speculation the nation’s economic growth would rebound from the slowest pace since 1999.
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) lost 2.4 percent. Shanghai Composite trading volumes were 25 percent higher than the 30-day average as 50-day volatility climbed to 22.09, the highest level in more than a year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
A gauge of developers in the Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 9.3 percent, the most since June 2008. Vanke, the nation’s largest publicly traded developer, tumbled 10 percent to 10.84 yuan. Gemdale Corp. sank 10 percent to 6.42 yuan, the biggest loss since Aug. 31, 2009. Poly Real Estate Group Co. also slumped 10 percent to 11.37 yuan.
“The new measures would immediately affect buyers’ sentiment and hence sales volumes,” UBS AG analysts including Eva Lee wrote in a report today. “The new measures will ’freeze’ the entire market and delay the originally planned sales schedules planned for the near term.”
China Minsheng Banking Corp. retreated 6.8 percent to 9.49 yuan, while Industrial Bank Co. (601166) dropped 9 percent to 18.34 yuan amid concern home lending will slow. Anhui Conch, the biggest cement producer, lost 10 percent to 17.88 yuan on speculation fewer home purchases will damp demand for building materials. Sany Heavy Industry declined 8.6 percent to 10.77 yuan.
“Property is very wide-reaching,” Zheshang Securities’ Zhang said. Real-estate curbs “impact other sectors like banks and cement companies, so you see a huge drag on the market today.”
The China Securities Regulatory Commission is likely to consider resuming IPOs after completing fiscal checks on companies pending listing, the Securities Times reported today, citing the regulator’s vice chairman Zhuang Xinyi. Zhuang didn’t disclose a timetable for resuming IPOs, the newspaper said.
The non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 54.5 in February from 56.2 in January, the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said in a statement yesterday. The index’s reading has been above 50, which indicates expansion, for at least two years.
Pressure on China to tighten monetary policy is easing as inflation will be “relatively low” this month due to slowing food-price gains, People’s Bank of China adviser Song Guoqing said.
“There will be a lot of fluctuations ahead of the meetings as investors await measures announced by the government,” Zhou Lin, an analyst at Huatai Securities Co., said by phone from Nanjing. “There’s definitely concern about the economy’s recovery after the weak services PMI.”
The Bloomberg China-US 55 Index (CH55BN) added 0.1 percent in New York on March 1. The iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund (FXI), the largest Chinese exchange-traded fund in the U.S., declined 0.9 percent to $38.60 for a weekly gain of 0.2 percent.
Ambow Education Holding Ltd. tumbled 31 percent to $1.13 last week. The company was sued by investors who accuse it of orchestrating a “fake acquisition” to facilitate an initial public offering in the U.S.
The CSI 300, representing the nation’s biggest companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, fell 4.6 percent to 2,545.72 at the close, the most since November 2010, while the Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) slid 3.7 percent to 2,273.40, the most since August 2011. China Vanke Co., the nation’s largest property developer, led a gauge of real-estate companies to the steepest tumble since June 2008. Anhui Conch Cement Co. and Sany Heavy Industry Co. dropped by more than 8 percent.
Pedestrians are seen on a bridge
with a ticker displaying financial data in front of the Oriental Pearl
Tower in the Pudong area of Shanghai. Photographer: Tomohiro
Ohsumi/Bloomberg
“When there are new rules like these, it extends far beyond property shares,” Zhang Yanbin, an analyst with Zheshang Securities Co. in Shanghai, said by phone today. “There have been talks of property measures in the past few weeks, leading to declines in the market. The news over the weekend was evidence of a detailed measure, hence the loss is much bigger.”
The Shanghai index’s losses pared gains for the year to 0.2 percent and trades for 9.4 times projected 12-month earnings, the lowest since December. The benchmark measure had rallied as much as 24 percent from an almost three-year low on Dec. 3 on speculation the nation’s economic growth would rebound from the slowest pace since 1999.
Economic Outlook
A purchasing managers’ index released yesterday showed the nation’s services industries expanded at the slowest pace in five months. A government manufacturing PMI gauge released last week missed estimates. Chinese legislators begin an annual conference tomorrow, during which the government usually announces economic targets for the year.The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) lost 2.4 percent. Shanghai Composite trading volumes were 25 percent higher than the 30-day average as 50-day volatility climbed to 22.09, the highest level in more than a year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
A gauge of developers in the Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 9.3 percent, the most since June 2008. Vanke, the nation’s largest publicly traded developer, tumbled 10 percent to 10.84 yuan. Gemdale Corp. sank 10 percent to 6.42 yuan, the biggest loss since Aug. 31, 2009. Poly Real Estate Group Co. also slumped 10 percent to 11.37 yuan.
Property Curbs
The People’s Bank of China’s regional branches may implement the measures in accordance with the price-control targets of local governments, the State Council said in a statement on its website on March 1. Cities facing “relatively large” pressure from rising house prices must further tighten home-purchase limits, according to the statement.“The new measures would immediately affect buyers’ sentiment and hence sales volumes,” UBS AG analysts including Eva Lee wrote in a report today. “The new measures will ’freeze’ the entire market and delay the originally planned sales schedules planned for the near term.”
China Minsheng Banking Corp. retreated 6.8 percent to 9.49 yuan, while Industrial Bank Co. (601166) dropped 9 percent to 18.34 yuan amid concern home lending will slow. Anhui Conch, the biggest cement producer, lost 10 percent to 17.88 yuan on speculation fewer home purchases will damp demand for building materials. Sany Heavy Industry declined 8.6 percent to 10.77 yuan.
“Property is very wide-reaching,” Zheshang Securities’ Zhang said. Real-estate curbs “impact other sectors like banks and cement companies, so you see a huge drag on the market today.”
Brokerages Drop
Citic Securities Co., the largest listed brokerage, lost 6.5 percent to 13.81 yuan. Haitong Securities Co., the second biggest, sank 6.4 percent to 11.86 yuan, the most since Aug. 13.The China Securities Regulatory Commission is likely to consider resuming IPOs after completing fiscal checks on companies pending listing, the Securities Times reported today, citing the regulator’s vice chairman Zhuang Xinyi. Zhuang didn’t disclose a timetable for resuming IPOs, the newspaper said.
The non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 54.5 in February from 56.2 in January, the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said in a statement yesterday. The index’s reading has been above 50, which indicates expansion, for at least two years.
Pressure on China to tighten monetary policy is easing as inflation will be “relatively low” this month due to slowing food-price gains, People’s Bank of China adviser Song Guoqing said.
People’s Congress
Premier Wen Jiabao will outline economic policies at the start of the National People’s Congress in Beijing as the government grapples with sustaining a recovery from the slowest growth in 13 years without triggering a resurgence in consumer and asset-price inflation. While the government has pledged to boost incomes and consumption, last week’s decision to intensify a three-year crackdown on the property market may damp the nation’s rebound.“There will be a lot of fluctuations ahead of the meetings as investors await measures announced by the government,” Zhou Lin, an analyst at Huatai Securities Co., said by phone from Nanjing. “There’s definitely concern about the economy’s recovery after the weak services PMI.”
The Bloomberg China-US 55 Index (CH55BN) added 0.1 percent in New York on March 1. The iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund (FXI), the largest Chinese exchange-traded fund in the U.S., declined 0.9 percent to $38.60 for a weekly gain of 0.2 percent.
Ambow Education Holding Ltd. tumbled 31 percent to $1.13 last week. The company was sued by investors who accuse it of orchestrating a “fake acquisition” to facilitate an initial public offering in the U.S.
Friday, March 1, 2013
10 TIPS FOR TRADERS
11:10 AM
alphaadvisory
1. Bulls make a little. Bears make a little. Pigs get slaughtered
In other words, do not be a greedy trader. If you are a bull, don’t expect to get in at the bottom and out at the top. If you are a bear, don’t expect to pick an exact market top and ride a market all the way down to the lowest low. Thinking otherwise allows the destructive “greed” emotion to take over. Greed has been the ruin of many traders.
In other words, do not be a greedy trader. If you are a bull, don’t expect to get in at the bottom and out at the top. If you are a bear, don’t expect to pick an exact market top and ride a market all the way down to the lowest low. Thinking otherwise allows the destructive “greed” emotion to take over. Greed has been the ruin of many traders.
2. Any fool can get into a market, but it’s the real pros that know when to get out
Indeed, market entry is certainly an important element of successful trading. However, exiting the trade is paramount. Many times a traders will allow a market to “go against” him or her for way too long and way too far–meaning big trading losses. See next item.
Indeed, market entry is certainly an important element of successful trading. However, exiting the trade is paramount. Many times a traders will allow a market to “go against” him or her for way too long and way too far–meaning big trading losses. See next item.
3. Use protective buy and sell stops
One of the major mistakes many traders make is not using protective buy and sell stops when they enter a trade. Or, traders may pull their protective stop, “hoping” the market will turn in their favor. Don’t be fooled into using “mental stops.” Determining where to place protective buy and sell stops BEFORE market entry is one of the best money-management tools available.
One of the major mistakes many traders make is not using protective buy and sell stops when they enter a trade. Or, traders may pull their protective stop, “hoping” the market will turn in their favor. Don’t be fooled into using “mental stops.” Determining where to place protective buy and sell stops BEFORE market entry is one of the best money-management tools available.
4. Don’t put all of your eggs in one basket
Using a large percentage of your entire trading account for one trade is unwise. Remember that even professional traders will have more losing trades than winning trades over time. The key to success is minimizing losses on the more numerous losing trades and maximizing profits on the fewer winning trades. See next item.
Using a large percentage of your entire trading account for one trade is unwise. Remember that even professional traders will have more losing trades than winning trades over time. The key to success is minimizing losses on the more numerous losing trades and maximizing profits on the fewer winning trades. See next item.
5. Cut losses short. Let winners ride
Using
a pre-determined protective buy or sell stop will cut your trading
losses short. Using a trailing protective stop on trades that become
profitable will allow you to maximize profits on the winning trades.
6. Only the markets know for sure
Don’t ever think you “know” what a market will do at any given point in time. One of the biggest advantages for sound money management is “knowing that you don’t know” what a market will do at any given time. A recipe for trading disaster is thinking you know that a market will do. Remember the old trading adage: “Markets will do anything and everything to frustrate the largest amount of traders.”
Don’t ever think you “know” what a market will do at any given point in time. One of the biggest advantages for sound money management is “knowing that you don’t know” what a market will do at any given time. A recipe for trading disaster is thinking you know that a market will do. Remember the old trading adage: “Markets will do anything and everything to frustrate the largest amount of traders.”
7. Be humble
When trading profits are taken, be glad that it was not a trading loss. Don’t grouse because you left a bunch of money “on the table” after you exited your winning position.
When trading profits are taken, be glad that it was not a trading loss. Don’t grouse because you left a bunch of money “on the table” after you exited your winning position.
8. On selling options, use caution
There are some traders who do sell options on futures (as opposed to buying options) and make profits doing it. And there are many traders that don’t. I heard a veteran speaker at a trading seminar once say: “I made over 40 trades selling options in a year, with 97% winners–and still lost money. Remember the old saying that if it sounds too good to be true, it usually is.
There are some traders who do sell options on futures (as opposed to buying options) and make profits doing it. And there are many traders that don’t. I heard a veteran speaker at a trading seminar once say: “I made over 40 trades selling options in a year, with 97% winners–and still lost money. Remember the old saying that if it sounds too good to be true, it usually is.
9. Don’t over-trade
Trying to trade too many markets at one time is not good money management. If you run into a losing streak, cut down on trading–DO NOT try to trade more markets just to quickly recoup lost money.
Trying to trade too many markets at one time is not good money management. If you run into a losing streak, cut down on trading–DO NOT try to trade more markets just to quickly recoup lost money.
10. To succeed at trading markets, one must first survive at trading markets
Be conservative with your trading account and trading methods–especially if you are a less experienced trader. Go for those “base hit” trades, and don’t swing for the fence and try to hit a home run in a trading decision. Traders need to survive to trade another day, if the absorb a few losing trades.
Be conservative with your trading account and trading methods–especially if you are a less experienced trader. Go for those “base hit” trades, and don’t swing for the fence and try to hit a home run in a trading decision. Traders need to survive to trade another day, if the absorb a few losing trades.
Thursday, February 28, 2013
India Budget FY 2013-14: Highlights
12:53 PM
alphaadvisory
--Duty free limit for Gold raised to Rs. 50,000 in case of a male passenger and Rs. 1 lakh for female passengers.
--One-time Amnesty Scheme for service tax due from 2007: FM
--To set aside '9,000 cr as compensation to states for CST: FM
--To impose service tax on all AC restaurants: FM
--Nirbhaya Fund for women safety
--Royalty tax hiked from 10% to 25%.
--Transactions on immovable properties are usually undervalued. This justifying his move of imposing TDS of 1% on land deals over Rs 50 lakh.
--High-end smart phones to get more expensive.
--SMEs allowed to listed on MSME exchange without making a public offer
--SED on cigarettes hiked by 18%; cigars and cheerots too
--Custom duty on imported motor vehicles hiked
--To up import duty on set-top boxes to 10% from 5%
--To up import duty on luxury cars to 100% from 75%: FM
--Coal blending only solution
--FY2013-14 non plan expenditure at Rs 12 lakh crore
--TDS at 0.1% of land deals over '50 lakh: FM
--To reduce STT on equity futures, MF units: FM
--CTT to be introduced in non-agri commodities in futures @0.01%
--Extend 80IA by 1 year: FM
--Tax holiday for power plants extended to March 2014: FM
--DDT surchage raised to 10% from 5%
--No room to give away tax sops
--5-10% surchage on companies with income over 10 cr
--To continue with education cess of 3%
--No case to revise direct tax rates, slabs: FM
--Revenue deficit at 3.9% for FY13: FM
--10% surcharge on people whose taxable income above Rs 1 cr per year
--FY 14 Fiscal deficit at 4.8%; revenue deficit at 3.3%
--Youth skill development gets Rs.1000 cr
--Plan expenditure for FY14 at 5.55 lakh crores
--294 more cities to be connected by FM Radio
--Rs 1000 cr for ensuring safety and dignity of women
--FIIs may hedge forex exposure through ETFs
-- Defence allocation has been increased to Rs 236000 crore in the upcoming fiscal, marginally up from Rs 195000 crore this year.
--Aligarh, Varanasi universities get Rs 100 crore.
--Rs 6275 crore to Ministry of Technology, Rs 5216 crore to Department of Space, Rs 5280 crore to Department of Energy. These amounts are substantial increases.
--Generation based incentives for wind energy projects
--Low cost finance provided for viable renewable energy projects
--To expand private FM radio to 294 cities
--Chennai- Bengaluru Industrial corridor: DIPP and Japan's JICA preparing plan
--Power transmission system from Srinagar to Leh; Rs 226 crore provided in current Budget
--839 new fm channels to be auctioned
--Low cost finance provided for viable renewable energy projects
--Generation based incentives for wind energy projects
--Insurance, pension companies can trade directly in debt segment in stock exchanges
--Pension, insurance funds can invest in ETFs
--6275 cr for ministry of science and technology
--Govt plans to spend Rs 16.65 lakh crore for the coming fiscal year
--FIIs to be allowed in currency derivatives segment
--SEBI to simplify procedures for FIIs, unify categories for FIIs
--Rs 2000 crore for Urban Housing fund
--Regulatory authority for the road sector
-- Dedicated debt section in Stock exchagnes
--KYC of banks sufficient to acquire insurance policies
--Insurance firms to open branches in tier iii cities with out IRDA approval
--Rs 2000 cr for urban housing fund
--Social security package for unorganised sector
--Congratules SEBI for regulation of markets
--14,000 crore for capital infusion for public sector banks
--Social security package for unorganised sector
--Banks to be permitted to act as insurance brokers
--By Oct 2013 to get approval to constitute panel on transaction costs, financial policies
--India's first woman's bank as public sector bank; Rs 1000 cr as initial capital
--Bank for women
--Rs 14,000 cr to public sector banks for additional cppital infusion to meet BASEL III requirements by March 2014
--Public sector banks: 12517 cr - addl capital for banks by March 2013
--Rs 500 cr to SIDBI to act as guarantee to a factoring fund
--Rs 24,000 cr for textile technology upgradation
--Additional 96 cr in 2013-14 for ministry of textiles for Interest Subvention
--Handloom sector is in distress--- working capital -term loans - concessional rate of 6%
--To increase refinancing of SIDBI to help MSME
--Funds to tech incubators by corporates will be considered as CSR expenditure
--Natural Gas pricing policy to be reviewed
--To issue inflation indexed bonds/certificates
--Housing loans upt ot Rs 25 lakh to be allowed additional deduction of Rs 1 lakh
--PPP policy with Coal India as partner to increase coal production
--Worry about coal imports; will rise to 185 mn tons in 2016-17; We must reduce dependence on imported coal
--Some companies can issue tax free bonds upto Rs 50,000 cr for infra
--To raise Rs 25,000 cr via tax-free bonds in FY 13:FM
--Rs 5000 cr to be made available to NABARD to finance agri-produce storage
--3000 km of road projects will be awarded in first six months of FY14
--Inflation Indexed bonds to be introduced to wean people's savings away from gold
--Tax benefit in RGESS for 3 years
--In mutual funds, listed stocks, Rs 10-lakh to 12 lakh income limit
--Rajiv Gandhi Equity Savings Scheme to be liberalised
--Rs 10,000 cr additional for food security bill in FY 2014
--Infra debt funds for investment in infrastructure
--55 lakh cr for infrastructure in the 12 th plan
--4% farm loan scheme extended to private sector banks
--NABARD to give funds to build godowns, warehouses and cold-storage
--Rs 27049 Cr for Ministry of Agriculture, 22% Y-oY
--Rs 250 crore given away to Food security mission
--Coconut rejuvenatiion scheme Rs 75 cr to be extended all over Kerala
--Farm credit target at Rs 7 lakh crore
**FM: India's excessive dependence on gold very worrying.
**Economic space constrains due to high fiscal deficit, lower savings and investment and tight monetary policy
**Average economic growth rate in 11th Plan period is 8 per cent, highest ever in any Plan period
**There is no reason for gloom or pessimism
**Indonesia and China growing faster than India
--India not unaffected by what is happening in the global economy, says Chidambaram
--China, Indonesia: Only the two economies growing faster than India
--No reason for gloom or pessimissm, asserts Chidambaram
--Greater worries on CAD
--Excessive import of gold, oil, slowing of exports a concern
--$75 bn to finance CAD-- FDI, FII, external commerical borrowing the options
--Says opening up economy is a must to contain CAD
--Battle against inflation should be fought on all fronts
--Food inflation is worrying
--Steps to augment the supply side for food
--India econom has experienced slowdown after 2010
--Plan expenditure in 2013-14 to go up 29%
--Budget to create opportunities for youth, to give them decent jobs, income, safety, security of households
--Adequate funds to benefit women, children and minorities
--Total expenditure is 96% of the earlier budgeted expenditure
--FY 2013-14 total expenditure at Rs 16.65 lakh crores
--Foreign investment instrumental in tackling CAD
--Rs 13215 cr for mid-day meal scheme
--Clean Drinking water Rs 15, 260 cr
--JNNURM- continued in 12 th plan- Rs 14873 cr,
--10000 buses to be purchesed esp by Hill states
--Rs 33,000 cr allocation for MGNREGS
--46% hike in Rural Development Spending
--Rs 500 crore for crop diversification projects
--Budget presentation begins
10.52 AM: India's cabinet clears the budget
10.46 AM: Chidambaram arrives at the Parliament to present the budget.
10.37 AM: India's Finance Minister P.Chidambaram has left his office to present the budget.
--One-time Amnesty Scheme for service tax due from 2007: FM
--To set aside '9,000 cr as compensation to states for CST: FM
--To impose service tax on all AC restaurants: FM
--Nirbhaya Fund for women safety
--Royalty tax hiked from 10% to 25%.
--Transactions on immovable properties are usually undervalued. This justifying his move of imposing TDS of 1% on land deals over Rs 50 lakh.
--High-end smart phones to get more expensive.
--SMEs allowed to listed on MSME exchange without making a public offer
--SED on cigarettes hiked by 18%; cigars and cheerots too
--Custom duty on imported motor vehicles hiked
--To up import duty on set-top boxes to 10% from 5%
--To up import duty on luxury cars to 100% from 75%: FM
--Coal blending only solution
--FY2013-14 non plan expenditure at Rs 12 lakh crore
--TDS at 0.1% of land deals over '50 lakh: FM
--To reduce STT on equity futures, MF units: FM
--CTT to be introduced in non-agri commodities in futures @0.01%
--Extend 80IA by 1 year: FM
--Tax holiday for power plants extended to March 2014: FM
--DDT surchage raised to 10% from 5%
--No room to give away tax sops
--5-10% surchage on companies with income over 10 cr
--To continue with education cess of 3%
--No case to revise direct tax rates, slabs: FM
--Revenue deficit at 3.9% for FY13: FM
--10% surcharge on people whose taxable income above Rs 1 cr per year
--FY 14 Fiscal deficit at 4.8%; revenue deficit at 3.3%
--Youth skill development gets Rs.1000 cr
--Plan expenditure for FY14 at 5.55 lakh crores
--294 more cities to be connected by FM Radio
--Rs 1000 cr for ensuring safety and dignity of women
--FIIs may hedge forex exposure through ETFs
-- Defence allocation has been increased to Rs 236000 crore in the upcoming fiscal, marginally up from Rs 195000 crore this year.
--Aligarh, Varanasi universities get Rs 100 crore.
--Rs 6275 crore to Ministry of Technology, Rs 5216 crore to Department of Space, Rs 5280 crore to Department of Energy. These amounts are substantial increases.
--Generation based incentives for wind energy projects
--Low cost finance provided for viable renewable energy projects
--To expand private FM radio to 294 cities
--Chennai- Bengaluru Industrial corridor: DIPP and Japan's JICA preparing plan
--Power transmission system from Srinagar to Leh; Rs 226 crore provided in current Budget
--839 new fm channels to be auctioned
--Low cost finance provided for viable renewable energy projects
--Generation based incentives for wind energy projects
--Insurance, pension companies can trade directly in debt segment in stock exchanges
--Pension, insurance funds can invest in ETFs
--6275 cr for ministry of science and technology
--Govt plans to spend Rs 16.65 lakh crore for the coming fiscal year
--FIIs to be allowed in currency derivatives segment
--SEBI to simplify procedures for FIIs, unify categories for FIIs
--Rs 2000 crore for Urban Housing fund
--Regulatory authority for the road sector
-- Dedicated debt section in Stock exchagnes
--KYC of banks sufficient to acquire insurance policies
--Insurance firms to open branches in tier iii cities with out IRDA approval
--Rs 2000 cr for urban housing fund
--Social security package for unorganised sector
--Congratules SEBI for regulation of markets
--14,000 crore for capital infusion for public sector banks
--Social security package for unorganised sector
--Banks to be permitted to act as insurance brokers
--By Oct 2013 to get approval to constitute panel on transaction costs, financial policies
--India's first woman's bank as public sector bank; Rs 1000 cr as initial capital
--Bank for women
--Rs 14,000 cr to public sector banks for additional cppital infusion to meet BASEL III requirements by March 2014
--Public sector banks: 12517 cr - addl capital for banks by March 2013
--Rs 500 cr to SIDBI to act as guarantee to a factoring fund
--Rs 24,000 cr for textile technology upgradation
--Additional 96 cr in 2013-14 for ministry of textiles for Interest Subvention
--Handloom sector is in distress--- working capital -term loans - concessional rate of 6%
--To increase refinancing of SIDBI to help MSME
--Funds to tech incubators by corporates will be considered as CSR expenditure
--Natural Gas pricing policy to be reviewed
--To issue inflation indexed bonds/certificates
--Housing loans upt ot Rs 25 lakh to be allowed additional deduction of Rs 1 lakh
--PPP policy with Coal India as partner to increase coal production
--Worry about coal imports; will rise to 185 mn tons in 2016-17; We must reduce dependence on imported coal
--Some companies can issue tax free bonds upto Rs 50,000 cr for infra
--To raise Rs 25,000 cr via tax-free bonds in FY 13:FM
--Rs 5000 cr to be made available to NABARD to finance agri-produce storage
--3000 km of road projects will be awarded in first six months of FY14
--Inflation Indexed bonds to be introduced to wean people's savings away from gold
--Tax benefit in RGESS for 3 years
--In mutual funds, listed stocks, Rs 10-lakh to 12 lakh income limit
--Rajiv Gandhi Equity Savings Scheme to be liberalised
--Rs 10,000 cr additional for food security bill in FY 2014
--Infra debt funds for investment in infrastructure
--55 lakh cr for infrastructure in the 12 th plan
--4% farm loan scheme extended to private sector banks
--NABARD to give funds to build godowns, warehouses and cold-storage
--Rs 27049 Cr for Ministry of Agriculture, 22% Y-oY
--Rs 250 crore given away to Food security mission
--Coconut rejuvenatiion scheme Rs 75 cr to be extended all over Kerala
--Farm credit target at Rs 7 lakh crore
**FM: India's excessive dependence on gold very worrying.
**Economic space constrains due to high fiscal deficit, lower savings and investment and tight monetary policy
**Average economic growth rate in 11th Plan period is 8 per cent, highest ever in any Plan period
**There is no reason for gloom or pessimism
**Indonesia and China growing faster than India
--India not unaffected by what is happening in the global economy, says Chidambaram
--China, Indonesia: Only the two economies growing faster than India
--No reason for gloom or pessimissm, asserts Chidambaram
--Greater worries on CAD
--Excessive import of gold, oil, slowing of exports a concern
--$75 bn to finance CAD-- FDI, FII, external commerical borrowing the options
--Says opening up economy is a must to contain CAD
--Battle against inflation should be fought on all fronts
--Food inflation is worrying
--Steps to augment the supply side for food
--India econom has experienced slowdown after 2010
--Plan expenditure in 2013-14 to go up 29%
--Budget to create opportunities for youth, to give them decent jobs, income, safety, security of households
--Adequate funds to benefit women, children and minorities
--Total expenditure is 96% of the earlier budgeted expenditure
--FY 2013-14 total expenditure at Rs 16.65 lakh crores
--Foreign investment instrumental in tackling CAD
--Rs 13215 cr for mid-day meal scheme
--Clean Drinking water Rs 15, 260 cr
--JNNURM- continued in 12 th plan- Rs 14873 cr,
--10000 buses to be purchesed esp by Hill states
--Rs 33,000 cr allocation for MGNREGS
--46% hike in Rural Development Spending
--Rs 500 crore for crop diversification projects
--Budget presentation begins
10.52 AM: India's cabinet clears the budget
10.46 AM: Chidambaram arrives at the Parliament to present the budget.
10.37 AM: India's Finance Minister P.Chidambaram has left his office to present the budget.
Investors don't like the Budget. #Sensex down 78 points. #Nifty down 28 points.
12:51 PM
alphaadvisory
India Budget 2013-14: Concerns over CTT, industry worried over likely new taxes
10:59 AM
alphaadvisory
According to Associated Chamber of Commerce and Industry
(ASSOCHAM),"the Indian industry is holding its breath anxious whether it
will face any new taxes at a time when the economy instead needs a
booster dose for growth, an ASSOCHAM quick poll indicated."
“Tax revenues are not likely to show big rise in the wake of modest economic expansion. The only option before the government is to cut expenditures to get back to the fiscal discipline over which there are no choices available,” said the poll report.
Meanwhile the commodity futures industry and the Ministry for Food and Consumer Affairs have raised concerns over possible announcement of Commodity Transaction Tax (CTT) on the lines of Security Transaction Tax (STT) which is likely to cause trade volumes to fall in a yet to mature futures market.
Meanwhile, the Economic Survey presented on Wednesday has addressed key concerns of the economy and the need to curb imports of crude oll and gold to contian the current account defict.
"The Survey highlights the current account deficit as one of the key concerns in the economy and it has acknowledged that there is limited room to increase exports in the near term. The CAD has widened to 4.6% in the first half of the fiscal year and we expect it touch almost 5% for FY2013, so we believe that attracting capital inflows in the economy is pertinent to finance the CAD. In this context, the Survey has rightly observes that long term and stable capital inflows should be accorded priority to minimize the reversal of capital in risk-off phases," according to Dinesh Thakkar, Chairman and Managing Director of Angel Broking.
"Another key concern in the economy is that the savings rate has decelerated dramatically to 30.8% from its peak level of 36.8% in FY2008. The high preference of households for savings in non productive physical assets like gold is also adding to pressure on the already burgeoning trade and current account deficit. In this regard, the forthcoming budget can take some steps to boost savings in financial assets, and thus discourage demand for gold, by increasing the tax saving deduction limit in investment instruments such as ELSS, equities, longer-duration fixed deposits, tax-free bonds etc.”
Meanwhile, Chandrajit Banerjee, Director General of Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has said that the Finance Minister should avoid taxing the super rich and on the revenue side government can increase the tax base and set the path for implementation of Goods and Services Tax apartment from accelerating disinvestment in public sector undertakings.
“Tax revenues are not likely to show big rise in the wake of modest economic expansion. The only option before the government is to cut expenditures to get back to the fiscal discipline over which there are no choices available,” said the poll report.
Meanwhile the commodity futures industry and the Ministry for Food and Consumer Affairs have raised concerns over possible announcement of Commodity Transaction Tax (CTT) on the lines of Security Transaction Tax (STT) which is likely to cause trade volumes to fall in a yet to mature futures market.
Meanwhile, the Economic Survey presented on Wednesday has addressed key concerns of the economy and the need to curb imports of crude oll and gold to contian the current account defict.
"The Survey highlights the current account deficit as one of the key concerns in the economy and it has acknowledged that there is limited room to increase exports in the near term. The CAD has widened to 4.6% in the first half of the fiscal year and we expect it touch almost 5% for FY2013, so we believe that attracting capital inflows in the economy is pertinent to finance the CAD. In this context, the Survey has rightly observes that long term and stable capital inflows should be accorded priority to minimize the reversal of capital in risk-off phases," according to Dinesh Thakkar, Chairman and Managing Director of Angel Broking.
"Another key concern in the economy is that the savings rate has decelerated dramatically to 30.8% from its peak level of 36.8% in FY2008. The high preference of households for savings in non productive physical assets like gold is also adding to pressure on the already burgeoning trade and current account deficit. In this regard, the forthcoming budget can take some steps to boost savings in financial assets, and thus discourage demand for gold, by increasing the tax saving deduction limit in investment instruments such as ELSS, equities, longer-duration fixed deposits, tax-free bonds etc.”
Meanwhile, Chandrajit Banerjee, Director General of Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has said that the Finance Minister should avoid taxing the super rich and on the revenue side government can increase the tax base and set the path for implementation of Goods and Services Tax apartment from accelerating disinvestment in public sector undertakings.
How to trade in a volatile market on the Budget Day
10:58 AM
alphaadvisory
The downtrend seen in the market in the past one month suggests that traders are bracing for the budget with low expectations.
BSE
22.70
0.20 (0.89%)
Vol:1083 shares traded
NSE
22.60
0.05 (0.22%)
Vol:17067 shares traded
MUMBAI: Volatility in the Indian market is likely to remain high in trade today as Finance Minister P Chidambaram presents the Union Budget and at the same time traders will square off open positions on the last day of February series.
The last two sessions of trade have seen sharp movements on the benchmarks while the midcaps were battered down badly on pledged shares concerns.
According to analysts, in the short term, the budget is likely to move the markets in one way or the other. The downtrend seen in the market in the past one month suggests that traders are bracing for the budget with low expectations and thus chances of disappointment are low.
However, there are a few key things that the market will be keenly watching out for and will decide the course of the market.
"The borrowing number that the government puts out is a big factor that will determine interest rates and eventually even markets. Lower deficit achieved by indiscriminately cutting planned expenditure or development expenditure is not something that we are too happy about," said Apurva Shah, Head Investment Research, BNP ParibasBSE 0.89 %.
"What we are looking for is reduction in wasteful expenditure like a lot of subsidies, increasing revenues, not by way of high taxes, but by way of better collections and through non-tax revenues," he added.
Meanwhile, the charts are indicating bearish trend and chances of correction are higher given weak global markets. If the correction in global markets continues, then in days to come even the good budget will be ignored and the market will go down.
"It is not a smart idea to stand in front of an event and trade futures because the problem is a good budget could take the market higher by say about 80 to 100 points," said Ashwani Gujral, Fund Manager, ashwanigujral.com.
"In case of a good budget we will probably pop up and then go down. In case of a bad budget we will go down straightaway, but clearly the patterns are still not comforting as long as we are below 5,840-5,850," Gujral added.
He is of the view that chances of downside are higher and it needs to be seen what happens on the global shores.
"I would ignore tomorrow's action and move with the global trends which for the moment seems to be weak. Unless global correction is diluted, I do not think we will be able to close above 5,900. If Nifty closes above these levels then we can conclude the correction is over, but till that time the pressure remains on the downside," he added.
Mitesh Thacker, Technical Analyst, miteshthacker.com is of the view that 5,845 to about 5,870 are two important points to watch out for.
"From short term perspective, we have been extremely oversold. There is an event which has a 50-50 chance to influence the markets positively in the short term. If the Nifty was to go higher, my sense is that 5,845 to about 5,870 are two important points which I am watching on the short term charts," Thacker said.
The last two sessions of trade have seen sharp movements on the benchmarks while the midcaps were battered down badly on pledged shares concerns.
According to analysts, in the short term, the budget is likely to move the markets in one way or the other. The downtrend seen in the market in the past one month suggests that traders are bracing for the budget with low expectations and thus chances of disappointment are low.
However, there are a few key things that the market will be keenly watching out for and will decide the course of the market.
"The borrowing number that the government puts out is a big factor that will determine interest rates and eventually even markets. Lower deficit achieved by indiscriminately cutting planned expenditure or development expenditure is not something that we are too happy about," said Apurva Shah, Head Investment Research, BNP ParibasBSE 0.89 %.
"What we are looking for is reduction in wasteful expenditure like a lot of subsidies, increasing revenues, not by way of high taxes, but by way of better collections and through non-tax revenues," he added.
Meanwhile, the charts are indicating bearish trend and chances of correction are higher given weak global markets. If the correction in global markets continues, then in days to come even the good budget will be ignored and the market will go down.
"It is not a smart idea to stand in front of an event and trade futures because the problem is a good budget could take the market higher by say about 80 to 100 points," said Ashwani Gujral, Fund Manager, ashwanigujral.com.
"In case of a good budget we will probably pop up and then go down. In case of a bad budget we will go down straightaway, but clearly the patterns are still not comforting as long as we are below 5,840-5,850," Gujral added.
He is of the view that chances of downside are higher and it needs to be seen what happens on the global shores.
"I would ignore tomorrow's action and move with the global trends which for the moment seems to be weak. Unless global correction is diluted, I do not think we will be able to close above 5,900. If Nifty closes above these levels then we can conclude the correction is over, but till that time the pressure remains on the downside," he added.
Mitesh Thacker, Technical Analyst, miteshthacker.com is of the view that 5,845 to about 5,870 are two important points to watch out for.
"From short term perspective, we have been extremely oversold. There is an event which has a 50-50 chance to influence the markets positively in the short term. If the Nifty was to go higher, my sense is that 5,845 to about 5,870 are two important points which I am watching on the short term charts," Thacker said.
Wednesday, February 27, 2013
Shares, euro rebound, Italy bond sale in focus
2:49 PM
alphaadvisory
Reassurance from the U.S. Federal Reserve about its stimulus program helped stabilize the euro and European shares on Wednesday, as Italy prepared to test the reaction to its inconclusive election in the bond market.
Italy will auction up to 6.5 billion euros of new 5- and 10-year bonds at around 1000 GMT after gridlocked elections reignited fears about the euro zone debt crisis.
"Markets have started to price in risks of ungovernability of the country in the coming months, with possible domino effects on the rest of the euro area," said Newedge economist Annalisa Piazza.
"Political instability is expected to prevail ...and even a grand coalition government would be seen only as a temporary option, probably not able to continue the so-much needed reforms process."
Having fallen sharply on Tuesday following the Italian stalemate, European shares .FTEU3 rebounded 0.4 percent as trading resumed with 0.8 percent rises in Milan's FTSE MIB .FTMIB and Spain's IBEX .IBEX the leading the gains.
The mood was helped after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke defended the U.S. central bank's monetary stimulus on Tuesday, easing financial market worries over a possible early retreat from bond purchases.
The euro also regained ground, rising 0.2 percent to $1.3085 having hit a seven-week low of $1.3017 on Tuesday.
In the bond market Italian yields, which rise as prices fall, inched up again, while German government bonds , a favourite of risk-adverse investors, also added to this week's hefty gains. <GVD/EUR>
"Italy remains the centre of attention and I can't see it getting any better," one trader said. "Supply will be the main focus and ... it could be a bit of a problem."
LME Base Metal Inventory : Aluminium +5325, Copper +5975, Lead -150, Nickel +972, Zinc +18125
2:47 PM
alphaadvisory
Dollar slips against euro as Italy fears ease
1:56 PM
alphaadvisory
The dollar eased against the euro on Wednesday
as investors took fears related to the Italian political situation in
stride, and after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said he
backed the central bank’s asset-purchase program.
The ICE dollar index
DXY
-0.16%
, which measures the greenback’s performance against six major global
currencies, slipped to 81.788 by late afternoon in Tokyo from 81.948 in
North America Wednesday.
The WSJ dollar index
XX:BUXX
-0.13%
, a gauge of the currency’s moves versus a slightly wider basket of rival units, slipped to 72.63 from 72.70.
Bernanke faces opposition on inflation record
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke was forced to vigorously defend his inflation record in day one of his two-day testimony to Congress.
The euro
EURUSD
+0.19%
EURJPY
-0.09%
was fetching $1.3086, up from $1.3065, and 120.13 yen as compared with ¥120.05.
The dollar
USDJPY
-0.27%
was little changed at ¥91.81 versus ¥91.88.
“European markets should see a more subdued start than yesterday, and
while the Italian political issues haven’t materially impacted the
psyche of U.S. and Asian equity traders, [they have] certainly
influenced forex players,” said Chris Weston, chief market strategist at
IG Markets.
Hints of stabilization appeared in the foreign-exchange markets as
Italy’s political parties began exploring the possibility of stitching
together a government after an inconclusive election result had
resurrected worries of a euro-zone crisis. Such fears had weighed
heavily on risk currencies such as the euro earlier this week.
Also, Fed Chairman Bernanke Tuesday said in remarks to the Senate
Banking Committee that he backed continuation of the central bank’s bond
purchases, worth $85 billion a month, easing worries about the impact
from an end to that program.
Among other major currency pairs, the British pound
GBPUSD
-0.09%
was fetching $1.5108 as compared with $1.5128.
Euro Rises on Improved German Consumer Confidence
1:35 PM
alphaadvisory
HE
TAKEAWAY: German GFK consumer confidence survey rises to 5.9 for March
-> consumer expectations fall in line with Bundesbank forecast ->
Euro rises
German consumer confidence rose to a four month high
according to the GFK survey released for March. The survey was reported
at 5.9, meeting expectations and up from 5.8 in the February survey.
German business expectations rose to -2.5 in the
February survey, while income expectations dropped to 31.8. GFK said in a
statement that “German consumers anticipate that the economy will
steadily improve in the coming months.”
Following the economic decline in Q4, the Bundesbank
is predicting that the German economy will return to growth in the
current quarter on improved industrial production. The European Union
predicts 0.5% German growth over the whole of 2013. The GFK survey shows
German consumers’ expectations are in line with the central bank
forecast. Signs of German economic growth are Euro positive.
That is why the Euro rose about twenty points against the US Dollar to 1.3088 in Forex markets following the report. Resistance may be provided
by the first monthly pivot support line around 1.3184, and support may
continue to be provided by the key 1.3000 level. (To learn how to
incorporate overbought/oversold signals into your trading click here.)
Euro at Risk on Italian Bond Sale, Pound Sold Before GDP Data
1:33 PM
alphaadvisory
The Euro may fall as
borrowing costs rise at an Italian bond auction while the British Pound
is under pressure before the release of revised fourth-quarter GDP data.
Talking Points
- Euro to Fall on Strong Pickup in Italian Borrowing Costs at Bond Auction
- British Pound Under Pressure Before Revised Fourth-Quarter GDP Data
- Japanese Yen Resumes Rebound as Nikkei Sinks, Boosting Haven Demand
Italy
remains in focus as Rome prepares to sell €6.5 billion in 5- and
10-year bonds. Traders will keep a close eye on average yield and
bid-to-cover readings, with a marked pickup in borrowing costs and/or a
drop in demand likely to be seen as signs of rising sovereign risk amid
political uncertainty in the wake of the weekend’s election. Needless to
say, such an outcome bodes ill for the Euro.
The British Pound underperformed overnight – losing as much as 0.4 percent – as markets awaited revised fourth-quarter UK GDP
figures. Expectations call for confirmation of the initially estimated
0.3 contraction. A downgrade may amplify selling pressure as traders
build bets on further expansion of BOE stimulus. We continue to hold short GBPUSD.
Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen
edged higher, adding as much as 0.5 percent on average against its
leading counterparts. The move appeared to reflect regional safe-haven
demand as the Nikkei benchmark stock index sank for a second day, sliding 1.3 percent.
Gas prices may soon head lower
1:32 PM
alphaadvisory
There’s hope on the horizon for drivers. A break in the gasoline price increase should come in April, oil analysts have said.
The March-April prices at the pump are expected to peak at between $3.80 and $4.10 per gallon before heading back down a few cents.
All of this comes as wholesale oil prices continue to drop. Crude oil prices fell about 2.5 percent this past week. That should be good news for consumers but the pump prices keep going up. The spike comes as refiners begin to draw down on supplies as they change over from winter to more expensive summer blends. It’s also the time when refineries shut down for maintenance.
The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in Massachusetts this week is $3.77. In New Hampshire, the average is $3.74. The national average is $3.78 per gallon.
The March-April prices at the pump are expected to peak at between $3.80 and $4.10 per gallon before heading back down a few cents.
All of this comes as wholesale oil prices continue to drop. Crude oil prices fell about 2.5 percent this past week. That should be good news for consumers but the pump prices keep going up. The spike comes as refiners begin to draw down on supplies as they change over from winter to more expensive summer blends. It’s also the time when refineries shut down for maintenance.
The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in Massachusetts this week is $3.77. In New Hampshire, the average is $3.74. The national average is $3.78 per gallon.
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
Gold eyes big gains after Italy deadlock: Analysts said gold already edged up in Asia as uncertainty prevailed
1:10 PM
alphaadvisory
Monday, February 25, 2013
PRECIOUS-Gold bounces on stronger euro; focus on Fed testimony
6:02 PM
alphaadvisory
U.S. gold futures hit session high at $1,592/oz
* Markets eye U.S. Fed's Bernanke semi-annual testimony (Updates prices, adds comments, changes dateline from Singapore)
By Clara Denina
LONDON, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Gold rose on Monday, as rallying stock markets and a broadly lower dollar helped the metal recoup some of last week's losses, but investors were cautious ahead of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony to Congress later this week.
Analysts said the market was also finding background support from a downgrade of Britain's credit rating by Moody's and signs that Japan would continue with ultra easy monetary policy.
Spot gold rose 0.7 percent to $1,592 by 1121 GMT. It hit a seven-month low of $1,554.49 on Thursday after minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's last meeting triggered worries the central bank might wind down its bond buying programme.
U.S. gold futures for April delivery rose 1.2 percent to a session high of $1,592 an ounce. It was last seen at $1,591.50, still up 1.1 percent.
"With supportive news over the weekend, we can argue that we have removed quite a lot of overhangs seen in gold recently but we need to see a move above $1,600 and even $1,625 before we start talking about a recovery," Saxo Bank head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen said.
Moody's slashed the UK's AAA rating by one notch, raising prospects of continued loose monetary and fiscal policy, while Japan is likely to nominate a proponent of aggressive monetary easing as its next central bank governor.
Accomodative monetary policies are seen as positive for the metal, as rampant cash printing would undermine currencies.
The focus remains on the United States this week, where more clues are sought about the country's monetary policy stance. Bernanke will deliver his semi-annual monetary policy report on Feb 27.
"Ben Bernanke may quell speculation about a halt to quantitative easing, supporting gold," Hansen said.
Added to that, analysts said that about $85 billion in across-the-board government spending cuts could kick in on March 1, in a process called sequestration.
"Later this week, a failure to the U.S. sequestration talks may also imply lower economic growth, which plays in the hands of gold, as it could also indicate that stimulus could stay with us longer."
In other markets, shares firmed, while the euro bounced from a six-week low against the dollar, but further upside may be limited as investors eye Italian elections, where an unstable government could cause another crisis of confidence in the European Union's single currency.
Overall confidence in gold was still fragile, with holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust falling 42.3 tonnes to 1,280.67 tonnes last week, its largest weekly outflow since August 2011.
Gold net long positions fell by 3.5 million ounces to 12.8 million ounces in the week to Feb 21, the lowest level since May, according to the latest Commitment of Traders data.
"The bulk of the decline in net long positions can be attributed to a large increase in short positions," HSBC said in a note.
"With near-record short positions on gold, a potential shortcovering on bullion may lead to higher prices."
Gold speculative short positions stood a multi-year high of 12.5 million ounces.
Buying at lower levels by investors of physical gold in Asia helped lift prices, while a slower growth in China's manufacturing sector in February also raised concerns about the recovery of the global economy, analysts said.
The wedding and festival season are underway in India, the world's top gold consumer, with jewellery a key part of celebrations.
Russia and Turkey both raised gold holdings for a second consecutive month in January, data from the International Monetary Fund showed, highlighting central banks' interest in diversifying part of their reserves into bullion.
Spot platinum rose 0.9 percent to $1,619.49 an ounce, after prices fell 3 percent to a five-week low of $1,593.45 on Thursday. Palladium was up 1.5 percent at $747 an ounce, having fallen to a one-month trough of $707.22 last week.
Friday, February 22, 2013
Asian shares recover from steep loss, growth worry caps
10:53 AM
alphaadvisory
Asian shares clawed back some of the previous day's steep losses on Friday as investors took some comfort in the Federal Reserve's commitment to ultra-soft monetary policy for now, but weak U.S. and European data capped prices.
Worries about the global economic outlook lifted spot gold 0.3 percent to $1,581.40 an ounce, while sluggish data underscoring the need for the Fed's continued monetary stimulus pushed the dollar down 0.2 percent and away from a 5-1/2-month high against a basket of currencies .DXY seen on Thursday.
The euro inched up 0.1 percent to $1.3197 after falling to a six-week low of $1.31615 on Thursday, and was trading up 0.1 percent to 122.85 yen after hitting a three-week trough of 122.25 yen on Thursday.
Most risk assets slid to 2013 lows on Thursday, in part because of worries the Fed could prematurely wind down its bond buying program. The sharp fall came as many markets had been advancing to their highs, bolstered by receding worries about the euro zone's debt crisis.
"In America they're kind of revealing that actually the next thing we need to do is start tightening, and that's why global stocks are very volatile at the moment and we're going to be caught up in that," said Damien Boey, equity strategist at Credit Suisse.
The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS was up 0.3 percent, after tumbling 1.5 percent on Thursday for its sharpest one-day slump in seven months. The index was set for a weekly loss of 0.6 percent.
Upbeat comments from the central bank governor helped Australian shares .AXJO jump 1.2 percent, with investors buying back after stocks slumped 2.3 percent for their biggest one-day fall since May in the previous session.
South Korean shares .KS11 rose 0.4 percent while Hong Kong shares .HSI bucked the regional trend and fell 0.5 percent.
Tokyo's Nikkei stock average .N225 eased 0.5 percent. .T
London copper climbed 0.7 percent to $7,917 a metric ton, after posting its biggest single-day slide this year on Thursday.
Crude oil futures recovered from Thursday's sell-off, with U.S. crude up 0.4 percent to $93.25 a barrel and Brent rising 0.5 percent to $114.07. <O/R>
"Financial markets appear to be at a transitional point. Following on from the 'Great Moderation' and the 'Great Recession', there now seems to be a debate over the next 'Great' theme," Barclays Capital said in a research.
ITALY, U.S. BUDGET EYED
U.S. Treasury yields were a tad higher in Asia, after easing the previous session following several indicators pointing to slow economic growth, such as weekly jobless benefit claims and factory activity.
The euro zone's blue-chip Euro STOXX 50 index .STOXX50E fell to a fresh 2013 low on Thursday as unexpectedly weak business activity indexes dampened hopes the euro zone would emerge from recession soon.
Sentiment towards Europe was also hurt by uncertainty ahead of Italy's election over the weekend. Most investors expect a centre-left government to win and continue with reforms to tackle Italy's debt problems. But a resurgence of former leader Silvio Berlusconi has raised new worries.
Caution remained over the U.S. fiscal woes, with President Barack Obama and top Republican lawmakers so far failing to reach a deal to avert "sequestration" cuts that are set to kick in on March 1, which economists warn would hurt the economy and lead to job losses.
The dollar steadied against the yen around 93.12.
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