Thursday, January 31, 2013
Commodity Alert: Natural Gas Storage Forecast -202B, Previous -172B. Actual to be release at 9:00PM
5:56 PM
alphaadvisory
Natural gas is likely to go up as weather forecasts call for colder weather in the next few days & lower inventories, may test 195
11:43 AM
alphaadvisory
DATA TO WATCH TODAY
11:29 AM
alphaadvisory
DATA TO WATCH 12:30pm EUR German Retail Sales m/m All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m 1:15pm EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 2:25pm EUR German Unemployment Change 6:00pm USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 7:00pm USD Unemployment Claims7:00pm USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 7:00pm USD Employment Cost Index q/q 7:00pm USD Personal Spending m/m 7:00pm USD Personal Income m/m 8:15pm USD Chicago PMI 9:00pm USD Natural Gas Storage
Gold or Platinum—Which Will Get to $2,000 First?
10:57 AM
alphaadvisory
Gold and platinum have been locked in a tight race
for the past month, with both trading currently around $1,680 an
ounce, prompting the question – which precious metal will win the race
to $2,000?
Analysts told CNBC that platinum, which is used as an industrial raw material and in making jewelry, has the edge over safe-haven gold.
Production disruptions coupled with a pick-up in global auto production will drive platinum, widely used in catalytic converters for vehicles, to the key level before gold, said analysts.
Closure of mines in South Africa, the biggest producer of the metal as led to supply constraints. Rising labor and electricity costs have squeezed the margins of producers, resulting in the termination of operations at several mines.
Earlier this month, Anglo American Platinum, the largest producer of the metal, announced it would be cutting annual production at four mine shafts in the Rustenburg region of South Africa by 400,000 ounces – or 8 percent of global output. Following the report, platinum rose as high as $1,704 an ounce, however, it has since fallen to $1,674.
"I'm bullish on platinum – I think it will have no problem getting into the upper $1,900s and $2,000s as will gold, but I think platinum will reach there first," Sean Hyman, editor of the Ultimate Wealth Report, a monthly publication on market trends, told CNBC, citing supply constraints.
Hyman sees platinum rising to $2,000 an ounce – around 20 percent higher from current levels - in the next 6 to 9 months. The metal last hit that level in July 2008.
Eugen Weinber, head of commodity research, Commerzbank who agrees platinum will win the race to $2,000, said, production disruption in South Africa is not completely priced in, adding that he expects to see further mine closures going forward.
Demand from Auto Sector
As auto production picks up alongside the recovery in global growth, demand for platinum will increase as well, both strategists said, supporting the price of the metal.
"The global economy is recovering and especially as China's economy is beginning to improve, we'll see more demand for cars, which will increase the demand for these metals (platinum) even more," Hyman said.
The pickup in auto sales in the world's second largest market, the U.S., is expected to continue this year. New vehicle registrations are forecast to increase by 900,000 to 15.3 million in 2013, according to auto research firm Polk.
Strategists at Capital Economics, however, disagree that platinum prices will sustain gains above $1,700, citing weakness in demand out of Europe – the second largest market for the metal – due to the region's tepid growth.
They added that if platinum does sustain around $1,700, it will prevent further significant production cuts this year, thus limiting further price gains.
Gold Outlook
For gold, on the other hand, Weinber believes the increase in the price of the precious metal has been "postponed" but not "abandoned."
Gold has struggled to break above the key $1,800 resistance level over the past one year, coming only close at $1,79 4 in October.
"Right now, demand for safe havens is not quite there, and inflation isn't a great danger," Weinber said, adding that speculative interest in the precious metal has waned as well.
However, as inflationary pressures become more visible in the second-half, it will lend support to gold prices and it may hit $2,000 at some point in the fourth quarter or early 2014, he said.
Analysts told CNBC that platinum, which is used as an industrial raw material and in making jewelry, has the edge over safe-haven gold.
Production disruptions coupled with a pick-up in global auto production will drive platinum, widely used in catalytic converters for vehicles, to the key level before gold, said analysts.
Closure of mines in South Africa, the biggest producer of the metal as led to supply constraints. Rising labor and electricity costs have squeezed the margins of producers, resulting in the termination of operations at several mines.
Earlier this month, Anglo American Platinum, the largest producer of the metal, announced it would be cutting annual production at four mine shafts in the Rustenburg region of South Africa by 400,000 ounces – or 8 percent of global output. Following the report, platinum rose as high as $1,704 an ounce, however, it has since fallen to $1,674.
"I'm bullish on platinum – I think it will have no problem getting into the upper $1,900s and $2,000s as will gold, but I think platinum will reach there first," Sean Hyman, editor of the Ultimate Wealth Report, a monthly publication on market trends, told CNBC, citing supply constraints.
Hyman sees platinum rising to $2,000 an ounce – around 20 percent higher from current levels - in the next 6 to 9 months. The metal last hit that level in July 2008.
Eugen Weinber, head of commodity research, Commerzbank who agrees platinum will win the race to $2,000, said, production disruption in South Africa is not completely priced in, adding that he expects to see further mine closures going forward.
Demand from Auto Sector
As auto production picks up alongside the recovery in global growth, demand for platinum will increase as well, both strategists said, supporting the price of the metal.
"The global economy is recovering and especially as China's economy is beginning to improve, we'll see more demand for cars, which will increase the demand for these metals (platinum) even more," Hyman said.
The pickup in auto sales in the world's second largest market, the U.S., is expected to continue this year. New vehicle registrations are forecast to increase by 900,000 to 15.3 million in 2013, according to auto research firm Polk.
Strategists at Capital Economics, however, disagree that platinum prices will sustain gains above $1,700, citing weakness in demand out of Europe – the second largest market for the metal – due to the region's tepid growth.
They added that if platinum does sustain around $1,700, it will prevent further significant production cuts this year, thus limiting further price gains.
Gold Outlook
For gold, on the other hand, Weinber believes the increase in the price of the precious metal has been "postponed" but not "abandoned."
Gold has struggled to break above the key $1,800 resistance level over the past one year, coming only close at $1,79 4 in October.
"Right now, demand for safe havens is not quite there, and inflation isn't a great danger," Weinber said, adding that speculative interest in the precious metal has waned as well.
However, as inflationary pressures become more visible in the second-half, it will lend support to gold prices and it may hit $2,000 at some point in the fourth quarter or early 2014, he said.
U.S. GDP data disappoints; euro and gold up
10:36 AM
alphaadvisory
(Reuters) - The euro climbed to a 14-month high, gold rallied and longer- dated U.S. Treasuries pared losses on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve left its monthly $85 billion bond-buying stimulus plan in place.
The Fed said economic growth had stalled but indicated the pullback was likely temporary, describing the nation's job market as continuing its modest pace of improvement. It repeated a pledge to keep purchasing securities until the outlook for employment improves substantially.
A report earlier in the day showing the U.S. economy contracted in the fourth quarter had already bolstered expectations the Fed would continue its easy monetary policy.
GDP data, which showed the world's largest economy in the fourth quarter unexpectedly suffered its first decline since the 2007-09 recession, supported that expectation. Gross domestic product fell at a 0.1 percent annual rate after growing at a 3.1 percent clip in the third quarter.
"The key thing for investors is that liquidity remains in place. The market, after it digests this information, is likely to continue to buy the dips versus sell the rallies," said Dan Veru, chief investment officer at Palisade Capital Management, in Fort Lee, N.J.
The euro was last at $1.3574, with spot gold prices up $18.41, or 1.11 percent, to $1,681.80.
Easy U.S. monetary policy adds to the attractiveness of the euro. In recent years investors would buy the dollar as a safer haven on bad economic data, but at least on Wednesday, they saw the euro as a better bet.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 29.49 points, or 0.21 percent, at 13,924.93. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was down 3.96 points, or 0.26 percent, at 1,503.88. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was down 5.97 points, or 0.19 percent, at 3,147.69.
Brent crude oil reached its highest level in three and a half months as it passed $115 a barrel. It last traded at $114.90. U.S. light sweet crude oil rose 38 cents, or 0.39 percent, to $97.95 per barrel.
MCX Gold may trade positive on FOMC QE stance
10:30 AM
alphaadvisory
With the US GDP contracting 0.1% in the fourth quarter and the
Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee sticking to asset purchase
programs to the tune of $85 billion a month, gold prices gained. The
futures on MCX is expected to trade positive today, analysts say.
Spot gold prices in Singapore were seen trading at $1,676.90 an ounce at 9:46 a.m subsequent to rising as much as 1.2 percent Wednesday to $1,683.28. The price is the highest since January 4.
“A reevaluation of the U.S. economic recovery combined with a reaffirmation of a highly accommodative monetary policy is gold-bullish,” Howard Wen, an analyst at HSBC Securities (USA) Inc., wrote in a note and was quoted by the Bloomberg as saying.
“The so-called overall trajectory for gold and silver appears higher” Wen added.
Meanwhile, in the futures, Comex gold for delivery on Apr 13 was seen trading at $1680.75 a loss of $0.85 or 0.05%. Silver futures contract for delivery on March 13 was spotted trading at $32.085 an ounce, a loss of $0.092 or 0.29% as of 10.16 AM IST.
To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month—the US Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee said in a statement.
“If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability.”
Spot gold prices in Singapore were seen trading at $1,676.90 an ounce at 9:46 a.m subsequent to rising as much as 1.2 percent Wednesday to $1,683.28. The price is the highest since January 4.
“A reevaluation of the U.S. economic recovery combined with a reaffirmation of a highly accommodative monetary policy is gold-bullish,” Howard Wen, an analyst at HSBC Securities (USA) Inc., wrote in a note and was quoted by the Bloomberg as saying.
“The so-called overall trajectory for gold and silver appears higher” Wen added.
Meanwhile, in the futures, Comex gold for delivery on Apr 13 was seen trading at $1680.75 a loss of $0.85 or 0.05%. Silver futures contract for delivery on March 13 was spotted trading at $32.085 an ounce, a loss of $0.092 or 0.29% as of 10.16 AM IST.
To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month—the US Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee said in a statement.
“If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability.”
31 Jan, 2013, 09.55AM IST, Reuters Asian shares off highs, Federal Reserve's stance underpins markets
10:24 AM
alphaadvisory
Positive economic reports from Asia failed to lift markets as investors continued to assess regional earnings results and ahead of key data such as China's official manufacturing PMI and U.S. monthly nonfarm payrolls on Friday.
The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.4 percent after rising 1.3 percent over the past two sessions to nearly an 18-month high. The index was set for a monthly gain of about 2.4 percent.
Australian shares eased 0.4 percent, taking a breather from their 10-day winning streak, the longest in more than nine years, which hoisted local shares to 21-month highs.
"Certainly 2013 has started with an air of optimism. U.S. politicians show some willingness to deal with problems, no fresh issues have emerged in Europe and the Chinese economy is exhibiting firmer growth. Volatility has receded with investors keen to put cash to work in other asset classes," said Craig James, a strategist at CommSec in Sydney.
Southeast Asian stock markets were generally softer but remained near their highs. The Philippines hit a record high for the third day running on Wednesday and Thailand's
market surged to a more than 18-year high on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept in place its monthly $85 billion bond-buying stimulus plan, arguing the support was needed to lower unemployment.
Underscoring the Fed's cautious view, data on Wednesday showed the U.S. economy unexpectedly contracted in the fourth quarter. Still, a lot of that weakness came from a plunge in defense spending, suggesting the underlying fundamentals were not as bad as the headline figures indicated.
In Asia, the data on Thursday provided cause for optimism. Taiwan raised its economic growth forecast for 2013, after the fourth quarter expanded faster than expected and posted its best growth in five quarters on improved demand for the island's electronics exports and stronger consumption.
"Taiwan's economic growth will be better this year as Europe's outlook is becoming positive, it will have a bigger rebound as an export-oriented economy," said Scott Chen, economist at Sinopac Commercial Bank in Taipei.
The Philippines said on Thursday its economy grew 1.5 percent in the December quarter from the previous three months, better than market forecasts.
YEN OFF LOWS
Japan's benchmark Nikkei stock average shed 0.6 percent after soaring 2.3 percent to a 33-month high the day before, taking its cue from the yen firming from fresh lows hit on Wednesday.
"It's too early to take profit," a trader at a foreign bank said. "People should look for names which are still undervalued, still haven't moved (in line with the rally in the Nikkei) and could outperform."
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's approach of revitalizing Japan's economy through an aggressive mix of fiscal steps and monetary easing is expected to keep the yen on a weakening path.
The dollar eased 0.3 percent to 90.81 yen after reaching 91.41 yen on Wednesday, its highest since June 2010. The euro also fell 0.3 percent to 123.24 yen, after hitting 123.87 on Wednesday, its peak since May 2010.
Japan's December factory output rose at the fastest pace in a year and a half and firms expect further gains, raising hopes that stabilising global demand and exports will help pull the economy from its slump.
EUROPE IMPROVING
The euro held near a 14-month high of $1.3588 scaled on Wednesday.
Reports from the euro zone on Wednesday underscored views that the debt crisis-hit region may be overcoming the worst, with economic sentiment improving more than expected across all sectors in January and a gauge for the phase of the business cycle also rising this month.
"The rise in the EUR is a sign of the success of the European Central Bank on the credit front, which matters far more than a short term rise in EUR/USD. Money is flowing into Europe and from North back to the South or from ECB funding to money market funding," Sebastien Galy, strategist at Societe Generale, said in a note to clients.
Spot gold hovered near its one-week high of $1,683.39 an ounce reached on Wednesday.
U.S. crude futures steadied around $97.93 a barrel and Brent crude was up 0.2 percent to $115.09.
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
DATA TO WATCH 6:45pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 7:00pm USD Advance GDP q/q 7:00pm USD Advance GDP Price Index q/q 9:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 11:30pm EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
6:17 PM
alphaadvisory
Copper Advances to Two-Week High on U.S. Stimulus: LME Preview
3:35 PM
alphaadvisory
Copper rose to a two-week high in
London as economists forecast the U.S. will keep stimulating the
economy until the first quarter of next year.
Asian market finished broadly higher.
3:08 PM
alphaadvisory
Asian markets finished broadly higher today with shares in Japan leading
the region. The Nikkei 225 is up 2.28% while China's Shanghai Composite
is up 1.00% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng is up 0.71%..
LME COPPER : DOWN -325 ZINC: UP 675 ALUMINIUM : DOWN -6250 NICKEL: UP 252 LEAD: DOWN -50 TIN: UP 100 1/30/2013 14:30
2:32 PM
alphaadvisory
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks Daily COPPER: DOWN 399 ALUMINIUM: DOWN 101 ZINC: UP 1198 LEAD: UP 1775 RUBBER: UP 160
1:28 PM
alphaadvisory
COMMODITY UPDATE : SELL SILVER BLW 58200..SL 58400..TGT 58000,57800..CMP 58220
12:05 PM
alphaadvisory
Jan Lead could trade higher to 130 levels by testing 128 levels. Support is seen at 127 levels.
11:21 AM
alphaadvisory
Jan Nickel could trade higher to 970 levels by testing 945 levels. Support is seen at 940 levels.
11:20 AM
alphaadvisory
Jan Zinc could trade higher to 113.50 levels by testing 111.50 levels. Support is seen at 110.50 levels.
11:19 AM
alphaadvisory
Feb Crude could trade higher to 5260 levels by testing 5200 levels. Support is seen at 5190 levels.
11:18 AM
alphaadvisory
COMMODITY UPDATE : SELL COPPER ONLY BLW 439..SL 439.90..TGT 438.80, 437.80,436.80..CMP 439.45
11:18 AM
alphaadvisory
Mar Silver could trade sideways between 58400 & 57800 levels. Support is seen at 57650 & Resistance at 58700 levels.
11:17 AM
alphaadvisory
Feb Gold could trade sideways between 30350 & 30250 levels. Support is seen at 30200 & Resistance at 30400
11:14 AM
alphaadvisory
Global Crude Oil futures near 4 month highs; tad up on MCX
11:13 AM
alphaadvisory
Crude oil futures are trading near four month highs before the US
Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting is coming out with its
statement on monetary policy measures.
The nation is the biggest consumer of crude oil and the FOMC meet may decide to continue with stimulus measures, analysts say, even as there could be dissent amongst members on continuing with asset purchase programs and maintaining record low interest rates.
“The Federal Open Market Committee will renew its commitment to asset buying during a two-day meeting that began yesterday, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 44 economists.” Bloomberg News said in a report.
The US Federal Reserve currently buys $45 bn in Treasury notes and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities on a monthly open-ended scheme. The purchase is tethered to the recovery in job markets and would be pursued as long as inflation remains latched to the gate.
On the NYMEX, crude oil for delivery on March 13 was spotted trading at $97.54 a barrel a loss of $0.03 or 0.03%. Brent crude oil for delivery on the same date was seen trading at $114.41 a gain of $0.22 or 0.19%.
“A lot of people are optimistic on the global economic recovery,” said Ken Hasegawa, an energy trading manager at Newedge Group in Tokyo to Bloomberg.
“Demand is gradually recovering. The DOE data won’t change the general direction of the market.” he added.
Meanwhile, US crude oil stockpiles has climbed for a 4th week to 368.2 million barrels last week according to industry-funded American Petroleum Institute.
On India's MCX, crude oil for delivery on February 19 was spotted trading at Rs.5232 a barrel, a gain of 0.08% as of 10.42 AM IST.
The nation is the biggest consumer of crude oil and the FOMC meet may decide to continue with stimulus measures, analysts say, even as there could be dissent amongst members on continuing with asset purchase programs and maintaining record low interest rates.
“The Federal Open Market Committee will renew its commitment to asset buying during a two-day meeting that began yesterday, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 44 economists.” Bloomberg News said in a report.
The US Federal Reserve currently buys $45 bn in Treasury notes and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities on a monthly open-ended scheme. The purchase is tethered to the recovery in job markets and would be pursued as long as inflation remains latched to the gate.
On the NYMEX, crude oil for delivery on March 13 was spotted trading at $97.54 a barrel a loss of $0.03 or 0.03%. Brent crude oil for delivery on the same date was seen trading at $114.41 a gain of $0.22 or 0.19%.
“A lot of people are optimistic on the global economic recovery,” said Ken Hasegawa, an energy trading manager at Newedge Group in Tokyo to Bloomberg.
“Demand is gradually recovering. The DOE data won’t change the general direction of the market.” he added.
Meanwhile, US crude oil stockpiles has climbed for a 4th week to 368.2 million barrels last week according to industry-funded American Petroleum Institute.
On India's MCX, crude oil for delivery on February 19 was spotted trading at Rs.5232 a barrel, a gain of 0.08% as of 10.42 AM IST.
COMMODITY UPDATE : SELL GOLD BLW 30280..SL 30330..TGT 30230 , 30190..CMP 30270
10:54 AM
alphaadvisory
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
5 Faiths for Traders - Anirudh Sethi Report
2:09 PM
alphaadvisory
- You must have faith in yourself. You must believe that you can trade as well as anyone else.. This belief arises from doing your homework and staying disciplined in your system. Understanding that it is not you, that it is your system that wins and loses based on market action will keep the negative self talk at bay.
- You must have faith in your method. You must study the historical performance of your trading method so you can see how it works on charts. Also it is possible to quantify and back test mechanical trading systems for specific historical performance in different kinds of markets.
- You must have faith in your risk management. You must manage your risk per trade so it brings you to a 0% mathematical probability of ruin. A 1% to 2% of total capital at risk per trade will give almost any system a 0% risk of ruin.
- You must have faith that you will win in the long term if you stay on course. Reading the stories of successful traders and how they did it will give you a sense that if they can do it you can to. If trading is something you are passionate about all that separates you from success is time.
- You need faith in your stock. It helps in your trading if you trade stocks, commodities, or currencies that you 100% believe in. Of course you have to follow a defined system and take the signals even if it goes against your opinions but believing in your trading vehicle helps tremendously.
COMMODITY CALL : BUY ZINC ABV 111.60..SL BLW 111..TGT 112.10,112.60..CMP 111.65
1:58 PM
alphaadvisory
COMMODITY CALL : BUY ALUMINIUM ABV 108.65..SL 108.35..TGT 109,109.30..CMP 108.60
1:21 PM
alphaadvisory
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks Daily COPPER: DOWN 201 ALUMINIUM: DOWN 374 ZINC: UP 278 LEAD: UP 498 RUBBER: UNCHANGED
1:04 PM
alphaadvisory
Gold Rebound Toward $1,800 Seen Before Drop: Technical Analysis
12:53 PM
alphaadvisory
Gold probably will stay above $1,630
an ounce in the next several months and may rally to at least
$1,800 before starting a decline in the second half of this
year, according to technical analysis by Societe Generale SA.
The $1,630 area consists of the highs reached last summer, support levels from a declining trend channel since October and a rising support line since May, the bank said. If prices climb above the $1,703-$1,706 area, they’ll probably rally and peak between $1,800 and $1,921 in the second half, before starting a gradual decline to as low as $1,500 by next year, it predicts.
Bullion rose a 12th straight year in 2012, the best run in at least nine decades, as central banks from Europe to China pledged more stimulus to bolster economic growth. While gold failed to set a new all-time high last year for the first time since 2007, investors are holding a near-record amount in exchange-traded products. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Credit Suisse Group AG are among banks that say prices will probably peak this year as economies improve.
“All the technical indicators are not calling for a big correction yet,” said Stephanie Aymes, a technical analyst at Societe Generale in London. “The trend is starting to become mature. There should be a final rise, and in this final rise that will attract fresh sellers.”
Bullion for immediate delivery fell 0.8 percent to $1,661.34 an ounce in London this year, after adding 7.1 percent in 2012, the smallest gain in four years. The metal set a record $1,921.15 in September 2011 and traded as high as $1,796.05 last year. ETP holdings at 2,610 metric tons are about 0.8 percent below the Dec. 20 all-time high, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
“We’ve been in a range for more than a year and now we’re in the middle of that range,” Aymes said. Prices above $1,800 means there is a “significant risk of a plummet,” she said.
In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Common indicators analyzed range from moving averages to Fibonacci levels to Ichimoku charts, as well as previous highs and lows and trend channels.
Gold generally only earns returns for investors through price gains. The Bank of Japan (8301) said Jan. 22 it will buy about 13 trillion yen ($143 billion) in assets per month from January 2014. Federal Reserve minutes released Jan. 3 showed some policy makers favored ending $85 billion in monthly bond purchases this year. The U.S. economy will accelerate from the second quarter through the start of 2014, economists’ forecasts compiled by Bloomberg show.
The drop of as much as 9.5 percent in the three months through Jan. 4 pushed gold below its 200-day moving average last month for the first time since August. Prices slid about 10 percent in seven weeks after falling below the measure in March. They swung above and below the average since December, and are now about $2 below it.
“Moving averages help investors profit during trending markets because they have a trend to follow,” said Jim Stellakis, founder of research company Technical Alpha Inc. in Greenwich, Connecticut and a chartered market technician. “In sideways markets they are useless. In just the past month, gold has round-tripped the widely-followed moving average four times.”
A gain above the downtrend channel resistance level of about $1,703 means prices could reach the mid-December high of about $1,723 and then $1,731, Commerzbank said. That’s the 61.8 percent retracement of the October-to-January decline, a level singled out in so-called Fibonacci analysis.
Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low.
The $1,630 area consists of the highs reached last summer, support levels from a declining trend channel since October and a rising support line since May, the bank said. If prices climb above the $1,703-$1,706 area, they’ll probably rally and peak between $1,800 and $1,921 in the second half, before starting a gradual decline to as low as $1,500 by next year, it predicts.
Bullion rose a 12th straight year in 2012, the best run in at least nine decades, as central banks from Europe to China pledged more stimulus to bolster economic growth. While gold failed to set a new all-time high last year for the first time since 2007, investors are holding a near-record amount in exchange-traded products. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Credit Suisse Group AG are among banks that say prices will probably peak this year as economies improve.
“All the technical indicators are not calling for a big correction yet,” said Stephanie Aymes, a technical analyst at Societe Generale in London. “The trend is starting to become mature. There should be a final rise, and in this final rise that will attract fresh sellers.”
Bullion for immediate delivery fell 0.8 percent to $1,661.34 an ounce in London this year, after adding 7.1 percent in 2012, the smallest gain in four years. The metal set a record $1,921.15 in September 2011 and traded as high as $1,796.05 last year. ETP holdings at 2,610 metric tons are about 0.8 percent below the Dec. 20 all-time high, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Bearish Channel
The $1,703-$1,706 area consists of the top of the bearish channel since October, Aymes said. Prices peaked near $1,800 in November 2011 and in February and October last year. Since the end of 2011, the metal traded in a $273 range, with the mid- point being about $1,659.“We’ve been in a range for more than a year and now we’re in the middle of that range,” Aymes said. Prices above $1,800 means there is a “significant risk of a plummet,” she said.
In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Common indicators analyzed range from moving averages to Fibonacci levels to Ichimoku charts, as well as previous highs and lows and trend channels.
Gold generally only earns returns for investors through price gains. The Bank of Japan (8301) said Jan. 22 it will buy about 13 trillion yen ($143 billion) in assets per month from January 2014. Federal Reserve minutes released Jan. 3 showed some policy makers favored ending $85 billion in monthly bond purchases this year. The U.S. economy will accelerate from the second quarter through the start of 2014, economists’ forecasts compiled by Bloomberg show.
Goldman Outlook
Goldman said Jan. 18 that it expects gold to climb to $1,825 in the next three months, while restating a forecast for prices to peak this year and be weaker in the second half. Credit Suisse expects the metal will average a record $1,740 this year, before declining in 2014.The drop of as much as 9.5 percent in the three months through Jan. 4 pushed gold below its 200-day moving average last month for the first time since August. Prices slid about 10 percent in seven weeks after falling below the measure in March. They swung above and below the average since December, and are now about $2 below it.
“Moving averages help investors profit during trending markets because they have a trend to follow,” said Jim Stellakis, founder of research company Technical Alpha Inc. in Greenwich, Connecticut and a chartered market technician. “In sideways markets they are useless. In just the past month, gold has round-tripped the widely-followed moving average four times.”
Moving Average
The metal closed below the 200-day moving average on Jan. 25. That scenario would increase the likelihood of further declines toward the 2012-13 support line at about $1,632 and the January low of about $1,626, Commerzbank AG analysts wrote in a Jan. 23 report. Staying above that area would be “key” for the medium-term trend, and a drop lower means prices could slide below $1,600, it said.A gain above the downtrend channel resistance level of about $1,703 means prices could reach the mid-December high of about $1,723 and then $1,731, Commerzbank said. That’s the 61.8 percent retracement of the October-to-January decline, a level singled out in so-called Fibonacci analysis.
Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low.
EUR ZONE GfK German Consumer Climate 5.8 VS 5.6 German Import Prices m/m -0.5% VS -0.2% miXED TO WEAK FOR BASEMETALS
12:34 PM
alphaadvisory
RBI cuts repo rate, CRR by 25 bps; home loans to get cheaper
11:28 AM
alphaadvisory
The Reserve Bank of India on Tuesday cut both repo rate and Cash
Reserve Ratio (CRR). While the repo rate was cut by 25 bps to 7.75 per
cent, the CRR was also slashed by 25 bps to 4 per cent.
The reduction in CRR will infuse Rs 18,000 crore into the banking system, said RBI Governor D Subbarao while announcing the cut. The RBI also trimmed 2012-13 growth estimate to 5.5 per cent from 5.8
per cent.
It
also cut end-March 2013 inflation projection to 6.8 per cent from 7.5
per cent earlier. Subbarao said expectations of rangebound inflation in
2013-14 provides space, albeit limited, for policy to give greater
emphasis to growth risks.
The cut in the repo rate and CRR brings a cheer for many as it will make home loans cheaper now. Since last the last cut nine months ago, the RBI has resisted pleas from businesses and politicians for further reductions.
But the central bank had held out hope of a cut sometime this quarter after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's fractious coalition in September ended a debilitating phase of policy inaction to make urgently needed reforms to reduce the fiscal deficit and attract foreign investment.
The reduction in CRR will infuse Rs 18,000 crore into the banking system, said RBI Governor D Subbarao while announcing the cut. The RBI also trimmed 2012-13 growth estimate to 5.5 per cent from 5.8
per cent.
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The cut in the repo rate and CRR brings a cheer for many as it will make home loans cheaper now. Since last the last cut nine months ago, the RBI has resisted pleas from businesses and politicians for further reductions.
But the central bank had held out hope of a cut sometime this quarter after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's fractious coalition in September ended a debilitating phase of policy inaction to make urgently needed reforms to reduce the fiscal deficit and attract foreign investment.
India Cuts Rates for First Time in Nine Months
11:28 AM
alphaadvisory
India's central bank reduced its policy interest
rate by a widely expected 25 basis points on Tuesday, taking comfort
from cooling inflation as it made the first cut in nine months to
support an economy headed for its slowest growth in a decade.
The Reserve Bank of India cut its key repo rate to 7.75 percent, as forecast by a Reuters poll.
(Read More: Indian Finance Minister Makes Case for Ratings Upgrade)
The RBI unexpectedly also reduced the cash reserve ratio,the share of deposits banks must keep with the central bank by 25 bps to 4.00 percent, which will infuse an additional 180 billion rupees into the banking system.
The central bank said there was increasing likelihood of inflation remaining rangebound around current levels heading into 2013/14 fiscal year starting April.
(Read More: India Joins the Debate Over Taxing the Rich)
"This provides space, albeit limited, for monetary policy to give greater emphasis to growth risks," the central bank said in its quarterly monetary policy review.
The Reserve Bank of India cut its key repo rate to 7.75 percent, as forecast by a Reuters poll.
(Read More: Indian Finance Minister Makes Case for Ratings Upgrade)
The RBI unexpectedly also reduced the cash reserve ratio,the share of deposits banks must keep with the central bank by 25 bps to 4.00 percent, which will infuse an additional 180 billion rupees into the banking system.
The central bank said there was increasing likelihood of inflation remaining rangebound around current levels heading into 2013/14 fiscal year starting April.
(Read More: India Joins the Debate Over Taxing the Rich)
"This provides space, albeit limited, for monetary policy to give greater emphasis to growth risks," the central bank said in its quarterly monetary policy review.
Gold is expected to go down with a stronger rupee as RBI cuts repo rate by 25 bps, CRR by 25 bps
11:25 AM
alphaadvisory
RBI may cut Repo Rate by 0.25% to 0.5%
11:06 AM
alphaadvisory
Reserve Bank of India, India's central bank, may cut the repo-rate or
the interest that banks get for the funds parked with RBI, in its
monetary policy review meeting today, according to Martin Patrick, a
Kochi based economist.
“Given that headline inflation may get contained, the RBI may resort to rate cuts to the tune of 0.25% to 0.5%.” he said.
“Headline inflation may not exceed 7% for the short-term, that is at least for the next three months.” he added. “India's GDP growth rate is moderating, and if the rates are cut now, the measure would boost the industry.” Martin Patrick noted.
“If they do not cut the rates now, then they would be missing out on an opportunity.” he said.
India’s economic growth is likely to fall below 5.8% in 2012-13 while inflation is expected to moderate below 7.5%, according to Reserve Bank of India.
In its Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments Third Quarter Review 2012-13 released before the Third Quarter Monetary Policy Statement 2012-13 to be released on Tuesday, RBI said that suppressed inflation continues to pose a significant risk to the inflation in 2013-14. As some of the risks materialises, inflation path may turn sticky.
Various surveys show that business confidence remains subdued. Survey shows that forecasters outside the Reserve Bank anticipate growth to recover from 5.5 per cent in 2012-13 to 6.5 per cent in 2013-14. Average WPI inflation is expected to moderate from 7.5 per cent in 2012-13 to 7.0 per cent in 2013-14.
Meanwhile, India's industrial body ASSOCHAM made a strong demand for a big rate cut, stating 25 basis point reduction in REPO rate by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will only be a baby step which is quite inadequate to revive the growth momentum in the economy.
"It is time, the Reserve Bank of India went in for a bold move and slashed the REPO rate by at least 100 basis points. Only then, the prolonged high interest rate cycle will be broken and the growth would get some breathing space for revival. The 25 bps cut will only be a symbolic and would not make much of a difference excepting, maybe a short-lived rally in the stock market”, ASSOCHAM President Rajkumar N Dhoot said on the eve of the RBI coming out with a credit policy review today.
“Given that headline inflation may get contained, the RBI may resort to rate cuts to the tune of 0.25% to 0.5%.” he said.
“Headline inflation may not exceed 7% for the short-term, that is at least for the next three months.” he added. “India's GDP growth rate is moderating, and if the rates are cut now, the measure would boost the industry.” Martin Patrick noted.
“If they do not cut the rates now, then they would be missing out on an opportunity.” he said.
India’s economic growth is likely to fall below 5.8% in 2012-13 while inflation is expected to moderate below 7.5%, according to Reserve Bank of India.
In its Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments Third Quarter Review 2012-13 released before the Third Quarter Monetary Policy Statement 2012-13 to be released on Tuesday, RBI said that suppressed inflation continues to pose a significant risk to the inflation in 2013-14. As some of the risks materialises, inflation path may turn sticky.
Various surveys show that business confidence remains subdued. Survey shows that forecasters outside the Reserve Bank anticipate growth to recover from 5.5 per cent in 2012-13 to 6.5 per cent in 2013-14. Average WPI inflation is expected to moderate from 7.5 per cent in 2012-13 to 7.0 per cent in 2013-14.
Meanwhile, India's industrial body ASSOCHAM made a strong demand for a big rate cut, stating 25 basis point reduction in REPO rate by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will only be a baby step which is quite inadequate to revive the growth momentum in the economy.
"It is time, the Reserve Bank of India went in for a bold move and slashed the REPO rate by at least 100 basis points. Only then, the prolonged high interest rate cycle will be broken and the growth would get some breathing space for revival. The 25 bps cut will only be a symbolic and would not make much of a difference excepting, maybe a short-lived rally in the stock market”, ASSOCHAM President Rajkumar N Dhoot said on the eve of the RBI coming out with a credit policy review today.
Jan Lead could trade higher to 130 levels by testing 127.50 levels. Support is seen at 126.50 levels.
11:03 AM
alphaadvisory
Jan Nickel could trade higher to 955 levels by testing 937 levels. Support is seen at 930 levels
11:02 AM
alphaadvisory
Jan Zinc could trade higher to 113 levels by testing 111.50 levels. Support is seen at 110.50 levels.
11:02 AM
alphaadvisory
Feb Copper could trade lower to 435 levels by testing 440 levels. Resistance is seen at 443 levels
11:02 AM
alphaadvisory
Mar Silver could trade sideways between 58200 & 57700 levels. Support is seen at 57500 & Resistance at 58450 levels.
11:01 AM
alphaadvisory
Feb Gold could trade sideways between 30420 & 30300 levels. Support is seen at 30250 & Resistance at 30500
10:59 AM
alphaadvisory
Monday, January 28, 2013
Silver futures to trade on bullish note, support at 29.43: HY markets
4:04 PM
alphaadvisory
Silver closed lower on Friday and the low-range close set the stage for a
steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading.
Stochastic and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways
to higher prices are possible near-term.
If it extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
If it extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Sensex trades flat ahead of RBI's monetary policy review
2:37 PM
alphaadvisory
Mumbai, Jan 28:
A benchmark index for Indian equities markets was trading flat Monday
afternoon, a day ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) third
quarter monetary policy review.
Automobile, information technology (IT) and bank stocks rallied. However, oil and gas, capital goods, and consumer durables stocks plummeted.The BSE Sensex, which opened at 20,129.00 points, was at 20,084.57 points around 12.30 p.m. -- down 18.96 points or 0.09 percent from its previous close at 20,103.53 points.The BSE Sensex touched an intra-day high of 20,172.45 points and a low of 20,062.79 points. The BSE midcap index was up 3.36 points, while the smallcap index was higher by 30.38 points.The wider 50-scrip S&P CNX Nifty of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) was trading up 3.55 points or 0.06 percent at 6,071.10 points.There was a strong buying support in the interest rate sensitive realty, auto and banking stocks on expectations that the RBI would cut key policy rates on Tuesday by at least a quarter of a percent to boost economic growth.
The RBI is scheduled to announce the third quarter review of the monetary policy for the financial year 2012-13 Jan 29.In the previous review announced Dec 18, the central bank indicated that it would ease monetary policy in the January review.In major indices, automobile index was higher by 119.31 points, followed by bank index up 38.62 points, and the IT index which was up 37.05 points. In terms of losers, oil and gas index was down 95.61 points, while the capital goods index was down 42.55 and consumer durables index was down 38.25 points.Among other Asian markets, Japan's Nikkei was down 0.94 percent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng was lower by 0.39 percent. However, China's Shanghai Composite Index was higher by 2.41 percent.(IANS)
Automobile, information technology (IT) and bank stocks rallied. However, oil and gas, capital goods, and consumer durables stocks plummeted.The BSE Sensex, which opened at 20,129.00 points, was at 20,084.57 points around 12.30 p.m. -- down 18.96 points or 0.09 percent from its previous close at 20,103.53 points.The BSE Sensex touched an intra-day high of 20,172.45 points and a low of 20,062.79 points. The BSE midcap index was up 3.36 points, while the smallcap index was higher by 30.38 points.The wider 50-scrip S&P CNX Nifty of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) was trading up 3.55 points or 0.06 percent at 6,071.10 points.There was a strong buying support in the interest rate sensitive realty, auto and banking stocks on expectations that the RBI would cut key policy rates on Tuesday by at least a quarter of a percent to boost economic growth.
The RBI is scheduled to announce the third quarter review of the monetary policy for the financial year 2012-13 Jan 29.In the previous review announced Dec 18, the central bank indicated that it would ease monetary policy in the January review.In major indices, automobile index was higher by 119.31 points, followed by bank index up 38.62 points, and the IT index which was up 37.05 points. In terms of losers, oil and gas index was down 95.61 points, while the capital goods index was down 42.55 and consumer durables index was down 38.25 points.Among other Asian markets, Japan's Nikkei was down 0.94 percent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng was lower by 0.39 percent. However, China's Shanghai Composite Index was higher by 2.41 percent.(IANS)
EUR ZONE M3 Money Supply y/y 3.3% VS 3.8% Private Loans y/y -0.7% VS -0.8% DATA IS FLAT TO WEAK FOR METALS
2:33 PM
alphaadvisory
LME COPPER : DOWN -1900 KEDIA ZINC: DOWN -3500 ALUMINIUM : UP 4200 NICKEL: DOWN -792 LEAD: DOWN -75 TIN: DOWN -160 1/28/2013
2:33 PM
alphaadvisory
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks Daily COPPER: DOWN 225 ALUMINIUM: UP 425 ZINC: UP 1325 LEAD: UP 1572
1:08 PM
alphaadvisory
The Global Economy in 2013: "Fragile and Timid Recovery:"
1:03 PM
alphaadvisory
The global economy faces fewer headwinds in 2013 compared with last year
and will likely grow a modest 3.5%, participants at the 43rd World
Economic Annual Meeting were told in Davos, Switzerland. But Christine
Lagarde, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund (IMF), described
the recovery as “fragile and timid” because the Eurozone is prone to
political crisis and slow decision-making processes.
“Some good policy decisions have been made in the various corners of the world, including by central banks,” said Lagarde. “In 2013, they have to keep the momentum.” She called on Europe to operationalize the new tools policy-makers have recently devised, including Europe’s banking union. Lagarde also credited the United States with making significant progress on fiscal consolidation, an achievement that she said tended to be overlooked.
Mark J. Carney, Governor of the Bank of Canada, echoed Lagarde’s caution. “There are still tail risks out there,” he warned, refuting some claims made in Davos that these risks have been reduced or totally eliminated. While central bank action is crucial, said Carney, this needs to be reinforced at the national level on the fiscal and structural sides, “and neither of those agendas are anywhere being finished.”
Still, there is a glimmer of hope in Japan, where the new government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has just unveiled a new economic policy that has been quickly dubbed “Abe-nomics”. Akira Amari, Minister for Economic Revitalization and Minister for Economic and Fiscal Policy of Japan, described the new tack as “a clear commitment to pro-growth policies”, designed to reverse Japan’s prolonged deflation and accelerate GDP growth.
China provides another bright spot. “After seven quarters of slowing growth, the economy headed up in the last quarter,” said Yi Gang, Deputy Governor, People’s Bank of China. The economy will grow about 8% in 2013, he added. Domestic consumption is becoming a more important driver of growth as evidenced by the steady shrinking in the current account surplus, a trend encouraged by China’s macroeconomic policies.
Africa is the third bright spot. “The IMF has revised its outlook for the continent upwards to 5.7%,” noted Trevor Manuel, Minister of the National Planning Commission (NPC) of South Africa.
The outlook for emerging markets and low-income countries is much higher, at 5.5%, than for the developed nations, at 1.5%. But any notion of a decoupling is misguided. “We now live in a globalized world,” said Yi. What happens in Europe and the United States will affect China, Asia, Africa and other economies.
“Some good policy decisions have been made in the various corners of the world, including by central banks,” said Lagarde. “In 2013, they have to keep the momentum.” She called on Europe to operationalize the new tools policy-makers have recently devised, including Europe’s banking union. Lagarde also credited the United States with making significant progress on fiscal consolidation, an achievement that she said tended to be overlooked.
Mark J. Carney, Governor of the Bank of Canada, echoed Lagarde’s caution. “There are still tail risks out there,” he warned, refuting some claims made in Davos that these risks have been reduced or totally eliminated. While central bank action is crucial, said Carney, this needs to be reinforced at the national level on the fiscal and structural sides, “and neither of those agendas are anywhere being finished.”
Still, there is a glimmer of hope in Japan, where the new government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has just unveiled a new economic policy that has been quickly dubbed “Abe-nomics”. Akira Amari, Minister for Economic Revitalization and Minister for Economic and Fiscal Policy of Japan, described the new tack as “a clear commitment to pro-growth policies”, designed to reverse Japan’s prolonged deflation and accelerate GDP growth.
China provides another bright spot. “After seven quarters of slowing growth, the economy headed up in the last quarter,” said Yi Gang, Deputy Governor, People’s Bank of China. The economy will grow about 8% in 2013, he added. Domestic consumption is becoming a more important driver of growth as evidenced by the steady shrinking in the current account surplus, a trend encouraged by China’s macroeconomic policies.
Africa is the third bright spot. “The IMF has revised its outlook for the continent upwards to 5.7%,” noted Trevor Manuel, Minister of the National Planning Commission (NPC) of South Africa.
The outlook for emerging markets and low-income countries is much higher, at 5.5%, than for the developed nations, at 1.5%. But any notion of a decoupling is misguided. “We now live in a globalized world,” said Yi. What happens in Europe and the United States will affect China, Asia, Africa and other economies.
Gold Little Changed in Asia on Weak Technicals; Precious Metals Mixed
1:01 PM
alphaadvisory
Gold was little changed in Asia Monday as technical indicators pointed
to near-term weakness while some modest physical demand helped provide a
floor to prices.
At 0429 GMT, spot gold was at $1,659.15 a troy ounce, down 15 cents from its previous close.
"The physical demand [for gold] is less than what we had last year," .
At 0429 GMT, spot gold was at $1,659.15 a troy ounce, down 15 cents from its previous close.
"The physical demand [for gold] is less than what we had last year," .
Feb Copper could trade sideways between 930 & 940 levels. Support is seen at 925 & Resistance at 945 levels.
11:54 AM
alphaadvisory
Jan Zinc could trade sideways between 110.50 & 112 levels. Support is seen at 110 & Resistance at 112.50 levels.
11:54 AM
alphaadvisory
Feb Crude could trade sideways between 5200 5160 levels. Support is seen at 5130 & Resistance at 5220 levels.
11:53 AM
alphaadvisory
Mar Silver could trade sideways between 58500 & 58000 levels. Support is seen 57800 & Resistance at 58800 levels.
11:53 AM
alphaadvisory
MCX SUPP RESIS TODAY
11:32 AM
alphaadvisory
Scripts
|
R1
|
R2
|
S1
|
S2
|
Copper(Aug)
|
428.1
|
431.2
|
422.7
|
420.3
|
Crude(July)
|
4794
|
4855
|
4692
|
4651
|
Natural gas(July)
|
164.7
|
172.2
|
153.17
|
149.03
|
Lead(July)
|
104.7
|
105.4
|
103.3
|
102.6
|
Zinc(July)
|
104
|
104.6
|
102.6
|
102
|
Nickel(July)
|
930
|
940
|
908
|
900
|
Aluminum(July)
|
106.3
|
107
|
105
|
104
|
Menthe oil(may)
|
1360.9
|
1401.7
|
1324.9
|
1284.3
|
US Natural Gas: Production disruption due to freeze-offs pegged at 1 Bcf/d for Jan
11:27 AM
alphaadvisory
US natural gas production disruptions due to freeze-offs are
estimated to be as big as 1 Bcf/d in January, roughly the size of the
m/m decline in production compared to December 2012 levels.
With that said, as temperatures start to rise in the Western region of the country, the markets have already observed a recovery in production in the last week through pipeline scrape data, Barclays said in a report
Prices at the moment are also supported by y/y supply shortfalls largely due to freeze-offs that shut-in wells mainly in the producing regions in the Rockies.
This week’s storage came in near consensus and brought stocks below the 3 Tcf level.
Given weather forecast for the rest of January, storage could be heading back below 2 Tcf if February and March experience normal weather. Other than the warming risks in February and March, other fundamental factors provide downside risks for natural gas prices.
For instance, nuclear generation continue to recover with y/y shortfall at only slightly above 1 GW at the moment, and is expected to see y/y growth by March.
Furthermore, production freeze-offs are likely to be completely returnedto normal by then, while some incremental production growth from 2012 levels remain likely with further infrastructure additions expected at shale gas basins, such as the Marcellus.
Natural gas prices softened slightly on Thursday morning after receiving a near consensus storage withdrawal. The market remains range bound only to be pulled by any directional change in weather forecast.
MCX natural gas for delivery on January was spotted trading at Rs.182.70/mmBtu a loss of 2.04% as of 11.10 AM IST, Monday. On the NYMEX, natural gas for delivery on March 13 was seen trading at $3.409 Mmbtu a loss of $0.057 or 1.64% as of 11.23 AM IST.
With that said, as temperatures start to rise in the Western region of the country, the markets have already observed a recovery in production in the last week through pipeline scrape data, Barclays said in a report
Prices at the moment are also supported by y/y supply shortfalls largely due to freeze-offs that shut-in wells mainly in the producing regions in the Rockies.
This week’s storage came in near consensus and brought stocks below the 3 Tcf level.
Given weather forecast for the rest of January, storage could be heading back below 2 Tcf if February and March experience normal weather. Other than the warming risks in February and March, other fundamental factors provide downside risks for natural gas prices.
For instance, nuclear generation continue to recover with y/y shortfall at only slightly above 1 GW at the moment, and is expected to see y/y growth by March.
Furthermore, production freeze-offs are likely to be completely returnedto normal by then, while some incremental production growth from 2012 levels remain likely with further infrastructure additions expected at shale gas basins, such as the Marcellus.
Natural gas prices softened slightly on Thursday morning after receiving a near consensus storage withdrawal. The market remains range bound only to be pulled by any directional change in weather forecast.
MCX natural gas for delivery on January was spotted trading at Rs.182.70/mmBtu a loss of 2.04% as of 11.10 AM IST, Monday. On the NYMEX, natural gas for delivery on March 13 was seen trading at $3.409 Mmbtu a loss of $0.057 or 1.64% as of 11.23 AM IST.
Expect market to touch new high before or around budget
11:16 AM
alphaadvisory
ET Now: Do you think the best part of the pre-budget move is behind us or given the kind of environment we are in markets are on course to touch a new high before budget?
Vikas Khemani: I would tend to think that probably we are on the course to touch new high before budget or around budget. I do not agree before budget or after budget but in my whole hypothesis around that is global environment is fairly good, global liquidity scenario is very good and government is all set for a sort of all out to sort of make reform process a reality and they are doing step by step most of the things that they have promised and I would tend to think that budget would be a good document in terms of outlining fiscal consolidation, in terms of showing reasonably good amount of growth, most of the fronts divestment schedule and timeline for GST implementations so you will see lot of statements coming out of the budget and in my opinion unlike popular belief budget will not be populist, budget will be a fairly balanced budget.
Based on that I feel that if I were to juxtapose between global environment and sort of possible budget coming I definitely think that probably before in and around budget or before March you will see market getting into a new high and lots of foreign investors who have been waiting to see sort of way forward the budget would probably again come in and invest money.
Vikas Khemani: I would tend to think that probably we are on the course to touch new high before budget or around budget. I do not agree before budget or after budget but in my whole hypothesis around that is global environment is fairly good, global liquidity scenario is very good and government is all set for a sort of all out to sort of make reform process a reality and they are doing step by step most of the things that they have promised and I would tend to think that budget would be a good document in terms of outlining fiscal consolidation, in terms of showing reasonably good amount of growth, most of the fronts divestment schedule and timeline for GST implementations so you will see lot of statements coming out of the budget and in my opinion unlike popular belief budget will not be populist, budget will be a fairly balanced budget.
Based on that I feel that if I were to juxtapose between global environment and sort of possible budget coming I definitely think that probably before in and around budget or before March you will see market getting into a new high and lots of foreign investors who have been waiting to see sort of way forward the budget would probably again come in and invest money.
PRECIOUS-Gold languishes near 2-week low as recovery hopes weigh
11:15 AM
alphaadvisory
Gold traded little changed on
Monday, struggling to break away from a two-week low hit in the
previous session, as a brighter global economic outlook dampened
gold's appeal a safe haven.
Platinum group metals fared better, with spot palladium
hitting its highest in more than 16 months. Platinum metals have
industrial applications and benefit from an improved economic
mood.
Signs that the euro zone crisis is stabilising and the U.S.
recovery is gaining traction drove investors to the
higher-yielding equity market, sending Wall Street up for the
eighth straight day on Friday.
"The weakness in gold may continue in the short run as weak
technicals and upbeat data from key economies put pressure on
prices," said Li Ning, an analyst at Shanghai CIFCO Futures.
"Investors would rather move their money into equities or
bulk commodities from safe-haven assets."
Spot gold was nearly flat at $1,658.70 an ounce by
0252 GMT, after dropping 1.5 percent last week -- its sharpest
weekly loss in a month. It fell to a two-week low of $1,655.39
in the previous session.
U.S. gold inched up 0.1 percent to $1,658.30.
Technical analysis suggested that spot gold could break
below support at $1,656 and fall further to $1,647 during the
day, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.
Investors will closely watch the Federal Reserve's policy
meeting this week as well as a string of data on employment,
economic growth and consumption, to gauge the pace of recovery
in the world's largest economy.
In the latest gold holdings data from the International
Monetary Fund, Iraq cut its gold holdings by a quarter to 29.9
tonnes in November, reversing some of the country's recent
efforts to bolster its reserves.
Physical buying ticked up in Asia, but was lacklustre
compared to the past few years when buying typically surged
ahead of the Lunar New Year festival, including in China, which
is vying with India to be the world's top gold consumer.
"Normally the demand in the region is strong at this time of
the year, but we are not seeing (that) this year," said Dick
Poon, general manager of Heraeus Precious Metals Hong Kong.
Hedge funds and money managers raised their net long bets in
U.S. futures and options of gold and silver in the week ended
Jan. 22, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission
showed.
Maruti Suzuki hits fresh record high on brokerage upgrades
11:02 AM
alphaadvisory
NEW DELHI: Maruti Suzuki India LtdBSE 1.53 %
surged over 2 per cent in early trade on Monday after most brokerages
upgraded the stock and raised its target prices by 10-30 per cent.
After gaining over 4 per cent on Friday, the country's largest car maker rose over 2 per cent to its fresh record high of Rs 1634. At 10:00 am, MarutiBSE 1.53 % was trading 1.8 per cent higher at Rs 1629.30. The stock surged to its 52-week high of Rs 1634 in intraday trade today.
UBS upgraded its ratings on Maruti Suzuki India Ltd to "buy" from "neutral," and raised its price target to Rs 2,000 from Rs 1,500, translating into a gain of over 30 per cent from its previous target price.
According to UBS, the weakening Japanese yen over the past three months would boost earnings. Maruti Suzuki is also well positioned to benefit from improvements in petrol car sales, said the brokerage firm.
Five out of ten brokerage firms have maintained their 'buy' rating on the stock but raised their target prices for the counter by 5-20 per cent.
CLSA has maintained 'buy' rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 2020, while BofA-ML raised its target price from Rs 1650 earlier to Rs 1808 post Q3 results.
Nomura raised its target price of Maruti Suzuki from Rs 1617 earlier to Rs 1937, while Deutsche Bank maintains 'buy' rating with a target price of Rs 1800.
Two out of ten brokerage firms have maintained their 'overweight' rating on the counter. Morgan Stanley and HSBC maintained 'overweight' rating on the counter with a target price of Rs 1835 and Rs 1820 respectively.
JPMorgan and Credit Suisse maintained 'neutral' rating on the counter but have raised their target prices. JPMorgan raised its target price from Rs 1450 earlier to Rs 1650 and Credit Suisse raised its target price from Rs 1632 earlier to Rs 1694.
While Citigroup downgraded the stock to 'neutral' from 'buy' citing current upsurge of nearly 35 per cent in the stock price. "Although macro's are looking better, micro is deteriorating," said Citi report.
The brokerage firm has marginally lowered its price target from Rs 1681 to Rs 1677 and has also cut earnings estimates by 5 per cent for FY14 and 1 per cent for FY15.
After gaining over 4 per cent on Friday, the country's largest car maker rose over 2 per cent to its fresh record high of Rs 1634. At 10:00 am, MarutiBSE 1.53 % was trading 1.8 per cent higher at Rs 1629.30. The stock surged to its 52-week high of Rs 1634 in intraday trade today.
UBS upgraded its ratings on Maruti Suzuki India Ltd to "buy" from "neutral," and raised its price target to Rs 2,000 from Rs 1,500, translating into a gain of over 30 per cent from its previous target price.
According to UBS, the weakening Japanese yen over the past three months would boost earnings. Maruti Suzuki is also well positioned to benefit from improvements in petrol car sales, said the brokerage firm.
Five out of ten brokerage firms have maintained their 'buy' rating on the stock but raised their target prices for the counter by 5-20 per cent.
CLSA has maintained 'buy' rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 2020, while BofA-ML raised its target price from Rs 1650 earlier to Rs 1808 post Q3 results.
Nomura raised its target price of Maruti Suzuki from Rs 1617 earlier to Rs 1937, while Deutsche Bank maintains 'buy' rating with a target price of Rs 1800.
Two out of ten brokerage firms have maintained their 'overweight' rating on the counter. Morgan Stanley and HSBC maintained 'overweight' rating on the counter with a target price of Rs 1835 and Rs 1820 respectively.
JPMorgan and Credit Suisse maintained 'neutral' rating on the counter but have raised their target prices. JPMorgan raised its target price from Rs 1450 earlier to Rs 1650 and Credit Suisse raised its target price from Rs 1632 earlier to Rs 1694.
While Citigroup downgraded the stock to 'neutral' from 'buy' citing current upsurge of nearly 35 per cent in the stock price. "Although macro's are looking better, micro is deteriorating," said Citi report.
The brokerage firm has marginally lowered its price target from Rs 1681 to Rs 1677 and has also cut earnings estimates by 5 per cent for FY14 and 1 per cent for FY15.
28 Jan, 2013, 06.15AM IST, Bloomberg Copper rallies as Chinese manufacturing boosts confidence
10:52 AM
alphaadvisory
LONDON: Coppertraders are bullish for a third consecutive week as the fastest expansion in Chinese manufacturing in two years boosts confidence that the biggest buyer of the metal is leading a global recovery.
About $5.8 trillion was added to the value of global equities since November as China accelerated for the first time in two years and central banks from the US to Japan pledged more action to bolster growth.
The US is in its best shape for two years, a global poll of Bloomberg subscribers on January 17 showed. China consumes 42% of the world's copper and North America 11%, Barclays estimates.
"Copper is one of those metals that people feel is linked to the industrial cycle," said Carole Ferguson, an analyst at SP Angel Corporate Finance, a broker and adviser in London.
"Demand is obviously returning, we've had good numbers coming out of China and the US definitely looks as if it's in a recovery trend." The metal rose 1.3% to $8,031.50 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange this year, after averaging $7,953 in 2012, the second-highest on record.
It reached a two-month low of $7,506 on November 9. The Standard & Poor's GSCI gauge of 24 commodities added 2.5% this year and the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities gained 4.4%. Treasuries lost 0.4%, a Bank of America Corp index shows.
The preliminary reading of a Purchasing Managers' Index in China was 51.9% this month, compared with 51.5 in December, HSBC Holdings and Markit Economics said on Saturday.
Wednesday, January 23, 2013
CRUDE OIL INVENTORY WILL RELEASE 2MARO AT 9.30PM AS U.S. MARKET WAS CLOSED ON MONDAY. EXPECTED INVENTORY IS 2.8M AGAINST -1.0M PREVIOUS
6:30 PM
alphaadvisory
China Crude Oil demand growth to reach 460 thousand b/d in 2013: Barclays Crude oil demand growth in China would reach an average 460 thousand b/d in 2013 as a result of healthy import growth, rise in domestic demand, product exports to regional consumption centres and a switch in appetite by teapot refineries from fuel oil to crude oil, stated London based Barclays. Chinese crude oil imports were pegged at 5.58 mb/d in December (increasing by 8% y/y). This extends the growth trajectory seen since October, with Q4 averaging a growth of 8% y/y, marking a steady recovery when compared to the 7% y/y average decline seen over August and September. Refinery runs also maintained a steady pace of growth in December (up 10% y/y) to a record 10.18 mb/d. The ramp up in run has been a result of several new refineries coming online over Q4, in particular the 200 thousand b/d PetroChina refinery in Sichuan and the 120 thousand b/d Shandong Dongming refinery. Overall, the increased runs and robust crude and product import numbers place Chinese oil demand in December at a record 10.56 mb/d (up y/y by 9%, 866 thousand b/d). The latest reading completes a strong fourth quarter of demand growth for China where the headline numbers averaged 10.2 mb/d, with growth during this period averaging 800 thousand b/d, 8%). These growth indications show a stark reversal when compared with the trend seen in Q3, and a close to four fold increase in growth rates when compared to the rest of the year where demand growth had averaged 235 thousand b/d (up 3% y/y). Finally, in terms of inventories, higher crude run requirements and relatively modest crude import growth have meant that Chinese commercial crude oil inventories fell by 3.62% (7.9 mb) m/m to 212 mb at the end of December. However, product inventories built up in December by 4% m/m. Gasoline inventories built the most, up by 8.5%, while gasoil stocks edged up by 2%. Kerosene inventories fell by 4% m/m, extending the constructive import readings for the product. The trade data continues to show a marked increase in Chinese exports of refined oil products in December, indicating that all of the increase in runs and crude imports cannot be proportionately linked to growth in domestic consumption. Chinese oil product exports seasonally increase in Q4, but this time the swing has been a lot more pronounced. The expansion in refining capacity is also coinciding with the country increasingly ramping up supplies of refined products to the regions’ key consumption centres. Preliminary indications suggest that the cold weather conditions in December have supported diesel demand in the country. Gasoline demand remains supported by structural growth factors as the per capita usage of automobiles continues to increase. Looking Along with an improvement in petrochemical demand, Barclays expects gasoline and diesel sales to support a healthy undercurrent of domestic consumption. Fuel oil demand is likely to face headwinds this year as teapot refineries expand and obtain crude oil import licenses, or merge with established parent companies and take advantage of their crude import contracts as feedstock. Teapot refinery run rates in the Shandong province have reduced their processing rates to 42% of their capacity as of 17 January (down by over 44% from a week earlier and the lowest level since August). While part of the reason for the decrease in run rates is to do with the increased flexibility in sourcing crude,part of it continues to be because of poor margins following the retail price cuts on 15 November 2012 for both gasoline and diesel.Crude oil demand growth in China would reach an average 460 thousand b/d in 2013 as a result of healthy import growth, rise in domestic demand, product exports to regional consumption centres and a switch in appetite by teapot refineries from fuel oil to crude oil, stated London based Barclays. Chinese crude oil imports were pegged at 5.58 mb/d in December (increasing by 8% y/y). This extends the growth trajectory seen since October, with Q4 averaging a growth of 8% y/y, marking a steady recovery when compared to the 7% y/y average decline seen over August and September. Refinery runs also maintained a steady pace of growth in December (up 10% y/y) to a record 10.18 mb/d. The ramp up in run has been a result of several new refineries coming online over Q4, in particular the 200 thousand b/d PetroChina refinery in Sichuan and the 120 thousand b/d Shandong Dongming refinery. Overall, the increased runs and robust crude and product import numbers place Chinese oil demand in December at a record 10.56 mb/d (up y/y by 9%, 866 thousand b/d). The latest reading completes a strong fourth quarter of demand growth for China where the headline numbers averaged 10.2 mb/d, with growth during this period averaging 800 thousand b/d, 8%). These growth indications show a stark reversal when compared with the trend seen in Q3, and a close to four fold increase in growth rates when compared to the rest of the year where demand growth had averaged 235 thousand b/d (up 3% y/y). Finally, in terms of inventories, higher crude run requirements and relatively modest crude import growth have meant that Chinese commercial crude oil inventories fell by 3.62% (7.9 mb) m/m to 212 mb at the end of December. However, product inventories built up in December by 4% m/m. Gasoline inventories built the most, up by 8.5%, while gasoil stocks edged up by 2%. Kerosene inventories fell by 4% m/m, extending the constructive import readings for the product. The trade data continues to show a marked increase in Chinese exports of refined oil products in December, indicating that all of the increase in runs and crude imports cannot be proportionately linked to growth in domestic consumption. Chinese oil product exports seasonally increase in Q4, but this time the swing has been a lot more pronounced. The expansion in refining capacity is also coinciding with the country increasingly ramping up supplies of refined products to the regions’ key consumption centres. Preliminary indications suggest that the cold weather conditions in December have supported diesel demand in the country. Gasoline demand remains supported by structural growth factors as the per capita usage of automobiles continues to increase. Looking Along with an improvement in petrochemical demand, Barclays expects gasoline and diesel sales to support a healthy undercurrent of domestic consumption. Fuel oil demand is likely to face headwinds this year as teapot refineries expand and obtain crude oil import licenses, or merge with established parent companies and take advantage of their crude import contracts as feedstock. Teapot refinery run rates in the Shandong province have reduced their processing rates to 42% of their capacity as of 17 January (down by over 44% from a week earlier and the lowest level since August). While part of the reason for the decrease in run rates is to do with the increased flexibility in sourcing crude,part of it continues to be because of poor margins following the retail price cuts on 15 November 2012 for both gasoline and diesel.
3:59 PM
alphaadvisory
Crude oil demand growth in China would reach an average 460 thousand
b/d in 2013 as a result of healthy import growth, rise in domestic
demand, product exports to regional consumption centres and a switch in
appetite by teapot refineries from fuel oil to crude oil, stated London
based Barclays.
Chinese crude oil imports were pegged at 5.58 mb/d in December (increasing by 8% y/y). This extends the growth trajectory seen since October, with Q4 averaging a growth of 8% y/y, marking a steady recovery when compared to the 7% y/y average decline seen over August and September. Refinery runs also maintained a steady pace of growth in December (up 10% y/y) to a record 10.18 mb/d.
The ramp up in run has been a result of several new refineries coming online over Q4, in particular the 200 thousand b/d PetroChina refinery in Sichuan and the 120 thousand b/d Shandong Dongming refinery.
Overall, the increased runs and robust crude and product import numbers place Chinese oil demand in December at a record 10.56 mb/d (up y/y by 9%, 866 thousand b/d). The latest reading completes a strong fourth quarter of demand growth for China where the headline numbers averaged 10.2 mb/d, with growth during this period averaging 800 thousand b/d, 8%).
These growth indications show a stark reversal when compared with the trend seen in Q3, and a close to four fold increase in growth rates when compared to the rest of the year where demand growth had averaged 235 thousand b/d (up 3% y/y).
Finally, in terms of inventories, higher crude run requirements and relatively modest crude import growth have meant that Chinese commercial crude oil inventories fell by 3.62% (7.9 mb) m/m to 212 mb at the end of December.
However, product inventories built up in December by 4% m/m. Gasoline inventories built the most, up by 8.5%, while gasoil stocks edged up by 2%. Kerosene inventories fell by 4% m/m, extending the constructive import readings for the product. The trade data continues to show a marked increase in Chinese exports of refined oil products in December, indicating that all of the increase in runs and crude imports cannot be proportionately linked to growth in domestic consumption.
Chinese oil product exports seasonally increase in Q4, but this time the swing has been a lot more pronounced. The expansion in refining capacity is also coinciding with the country increasingly ramping up supplies of refined products to the regions’ key consumption centres.
Preliminary indications suggest that the cold weather conditions in December have supported diesel demand in the country. Gasoline demand remains supported by structural growth factors as the per capita usage of automobiles continues to increase. Looking
Along with an improvement in petrochemical demand, Barclays expects gasoline and diesel sales to support a healthy undercurrent of domestic consumption. Fuel oil demand is likely to face headwinds this year as teapot refineries expand and obtain crude oil import licenses, or merge with established parent companies and take advantage of their crude import contracts as feedstock.
Teapot refinery run rates in the Shandong province have reduced their processing rates to 42% of their capacity as of 17 January (down by over 44% from a week earlier and the lowest level since August). While part of the reason for the decrease in run rates is to do with the increased flexibility in sourcing crude,part of it continues to be because of poor margins following the retail price cuts on 15 November 2012 for both gasoline and diesel.
Chinese crude oil imports were pegged at 5.58 mb/d in December (increasing by 8% y/y). This extends the growth trajectory seen since October, with Q4 averaging a growth of 8% y/y, marking a steady recovery when compared to the 7% y/y average decline seen over August and September. Refinery runs also maintained a steady pace of growth in December (up 10% y/y) to a record 10.18 mb/d.
The ramp up in run has been a result of several new refineries coming online over Q4, in particular the 200 thousand b/d PetroChina refinery in Sichuan and the 120 thousand b/d Shandong Dongming refinery.
Overall, the increased runs and robust crude and product import numbers place Chinese oil demand in December at a record 10.56 mb/d (up y/y by 9%, 866 thousand b/d). The latest reading completes a strong fourth quarter of demand growth for China where the headline numbers averaged 10.2 mb/d, with growth during this period averaging 800 thousand b/d, 8%).
These growth indications show a stark reversal when compared with the trend seen in Q3, and a close to four fold increase in growth rates when compared to the rest of the year where demand growth had averaged 235 thousand b/d (up 3% y/y).
Finally, in terms of inventories, higher crude run requirements and relatively modest crude import growth have meant that Chinese commercial crude oil inventories fell by 3.62% (7.9 mb) m/m to 212 mb at the end of December.
However, product inventories built up in December by 4% m/m. Gasoline inventories built the most, up by 8.5%, while gasoil stocks edged up by 2%. Kerosene inventories fell by 4% m/m, extending the constructive import readings for the product. The trade data continues to show a marked increase in Chinese exports of refined oil products in December, indicating that all of the increase in runs and crude imports cannot be proportionately linked to growth in domestic consumption.
Chinese oil product exports seasonally increase in Q4, but this time the swing has been a lot more pronounced. The expansion in refining capacity is also coinciding with the country increasingly ramping up supplies of refined products to the regions’ key consumption centres.
Preliminary indications suggest that the cold weather conditions in December have supported diesel demand in the country. Gasoline demand remains supported by structural growth factors as the per capita usage of automobiles continues to increase. Looking
Along with an improvement in petrochemical demand, Barclays expects gasoline and diesel sales to support a healthy undercurrent of domestic consumption. Fuel oil demand is likely to face headwinds this year as teapot refineries expand and obtain crude oil import licenses, or merge with established parent companies and take advantage of their crude import contracts as feedstock.
Teapot refinery run rates in the Shandong province have reduced their processing rates to 42% of their capacity as of 17 January (down by over 44% from a week earlier and the lowest level since August). While part of the reason for the decrease in run rates is to do with the increased flexibility in sourcing crude,part of it continues to be because of poor margins following the retail price cuts on 15 November 2012 for both gasoline and diesel.
LME Base Metals Inventory: Copper +2475, Aluminum -3800, Nickel +1026, Lead -50, Zinc -425
2:38 PM
alphaadvisory
Euro flat but may soon fall; dollar holds steady
1:34 PM
alphaadvisory
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — Major currencies stood their ground in early
Wednesday trading, but with some analysts tipping upside for the
Japanese yen and downside for the euro.
By midday in East Asia, the U.S. dollar had steadied after its Tuesday
decline — which was fueled in part by a surge in the yen — to move
sideways.
The two main dollar-tracking benchmarks were mixed, with the ICE dollar index
DXY
+0.03%
slipping marginally to 79.881 from late Tuesday’s 79.892, while the WSJ Dollar Index
XX:BUXX
+0.01%
, which measures the greenback against a slightly larger basket of currencies, edged up to 70.74 from 70.73.
The yen extended its strength, with the dollar easing further against
the Japanese unit after plunging almost 1% Tuesday amid disappointment
over the Bank of Japan’s easing measures.
Growth to top Davos agenda
Global growth will likely top the agenda of the World Economic Forum in Davos as the world's movers and shakers discuss whether the recovery is strong enough and can be sustained.
Furthering its loss, the dollar
USDJPY
-0.45%
fell to ¥88.44 from late Tuesday’s ¥88.74, while the euro
EURJPY
-0.64%
similarly dropped to ¥117.74 from ¥118.10.
IG chief market strategist Chris Weston saw the yen’s gains — which came
after Japan’s central bank adding to its asset-buying, but only with
effect from next year — as a realization that Tokyo would not be
loosening policy as much as hoped.
“The market now feels the actions are no way urgent enough to rise up to
the task at hand. Clearly ... the aggressive policies that are sought
by [Prime Minister] Shinzo Abe — and needed to even dream of achieving
2% inflation — are not going to materialize,” he wrote early Wednesday.
But analysts at Danske Bank said the yen’s gain in the face of the
policy announcement may itself provoke tough action from the Japanese to
push the currency back down.
If the yen rises further, “we are certain that we will see new measures
from [the Bank of Japan] and the government,” they said in remarks
quoted Wednesday by Dow Jones Newswires.
As a result, Danske Bank held to its outlook for further yen weakness
ahead, though adding that “the pace will most likely slow now.”
The euro
EURUSD
-0.19%
, which had seen little movement against the dollar Tuesday, was also
flat Wednesday, trading at $1.3308 from $1.3311 late the previous day.
Still, Crédit Agricole said that the European currency could well suffer
a “short, sharp correction of recent strength” after climbing almost 2%
on a nominal effective exchange-rate basis since the start of the year.
Gains for the euro “may have moved ‘too far too soon,’ given a lack of
fresh U.S. and European policy information in recent weeks,” they wrote
Wednesday. “With little policy or economic data release triggers today,
we look for a positioning-led short, but potentially sharp, correction
towards $1.3100.”
Among other major forex rates, the British pound
GBPUSD
-0.12%
bought $1.5830, little changed from Tuesday.
The sterling appeared to shrug off reports saying U.K. Prime Minister
David Cameron planned to hold a national referendum on whether to stay
in the European Union, if his government is returned to power in the
2015 elections.
Read: U.K.’s Cameron to vow EU referendum if reelected.
The Australian dollar
AUDUSD
-0.16%
, meanwhile, slipped 0.1% to $1.0537, according to FactSet, after
below-forecast fourth-quarter inflation raised prospects for a further
interest-rate cut.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks Daily COPPER: DOWN 1152 ALUMINIUM: DOWN 278 ZINC: UP 198 LEAD: UP 1530 RUBBER: DOWN 9450
1:09 PM
alphaadvisory
Gold: Gold Gained As The BOJ Announced Stimulus
12:57 PM
alphaadvisory
Gold prices traded higher by 0.15% against the USD in the 24 hour
period ending 23:00GMT, at 1692.95 per ounce, after the Bank of Japan
indicated that it would introduce open-ended asset purchases from 2014,
thereby boosting speculation that a revival of the economy would raise
demand for the precious metal.
However, investors speculated that gains in precious metal may be capped, amid a lack of fresh catalysts, as investors also opted for riskier assets against the backdrop of a global economic recovery.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, Gold is trading at 1693.50, marginally higher from yesterday’s close.
Gold is expected to find support at 1688.12, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1682.73. Gold is expected to find its first resistance at 1697.52, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1701.53.
However, investors speculated that gains in precious metal may be capped, amid a lack of fresh catalysts, as investors also opted for riskier assets against the backdrop of a global economic recovery.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, Gold is trading at 1693.50, marginally higher from yesterday’s close.
Gold is expected to find support at 1688.12, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1682.73. Gold is expected to find its first resistance at 1697.52, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1701.53.
Silver: Silver Trading Reverses Its Previous Session Gains
12:57 PM
alphaadvisory
Silver prices rose 0.54% to the USD32.21 per ounce during the 24 hours ending 23:00GMT, taking cues from yellow metal to trade on a positive note. Also industrial metals and base metals traded in the green after easing by the Bank of Japan and expectations for more positive data in the US and China.
With the global economy on the mend, market participants speculated that the need for industrial metals would continue to grow.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, Silver is trading at 32.17, 0.11% lower from yesterday’s close.
Silver is expected to find support at 31.88, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 31.59. Silver is expected to find its first resistance at 32.40, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 32.63.
The white metal is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Crude oil prices down on profit-taking – Hindu Business Line
12:55 PM
alphaadvisory
Oil prices were down in Asian trade today as investors locked in profits from recent gains. New York's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in March, was down 16 cents at $96.52 a barrel and Brent North Sea crude for March delivery shed 20 …
Greece Charges Statisticians Over Size of Deficit
12:55 PM
alphaadvisory
Greece has brought criminal charges against the official responsible for measuring the country's debt, thereby calling into question the validity of its 172 billion euros second bailout by the EU and International Monetary Fund.
Andreas Georgiou, head of the independent statistical agency Elstat, and two senior officials are accused of undermining the country's "national interests" by inflating the 2009 budget deficit figure used as the benchmark for successive austerity packages.
The three statistical experts face criminal charges of making false statements and corrupt practices, a judicial official said, adding that if found guilty they could serve prison terms of five to 10 years. They have denied any wrongdoing.
Mr Georgiou denied Greek media reports that he had resigned from Elstat, but he declined to comment on the charges.
The move by Greece's top financial prosecutors follows a 15-month investigation of allegations by Zoe Georganta, a Greek statistics professor, that Mr Georgiou's team used inaccurate methods to increase the size of the 2009 deficit from 12 percent to 15.8 percent of national output, a record for a euro zone member state. Prof Georganta made the allegations against Mr Georgiou after she was sacked from the board of Elstat by Evangelos Venizelos, then finance minister.
The upwardly revised deficit figure was accepted by Eurostat, the Brussels statistical service, without reservation.
Elstat has since revised figures for the 2010 and 2011 budget deficits used to work out Greece's aid requirement for its current bailout and the sustainability of its debt.
"If these figures are not considered accurate the whole basis for the provision of aid to Greece is not valid," said one analyst who asked not to be named.
Standard Bank Says Physical Gold Purchases Unusually High
12:39 PM
alphaadvisory
Physical gold demand has been unusually strong for this time of year, with “good buying” from Southeast Asia, according to Standard Bank Plc.
The Standard Bank Gold Physical Flow Index signaled demand climbed to the highest since November, the bank wrote in an e- mailed report yesterday. Purchases typically pick up toward the end of the year amid religious festivals and the wedding season in India. Gold reached a four-week high of $1,696.28 an ounce in London on Jan. 17.
India, the biggest buyer in 2011, raised taxes on gold imports two days ago to reduce a record current-account deficit and to moderate demand. Standard Chartered Plc said earlier this month that its gold shipments to India soared on mounting concern the duty would be raised. While gold has gained for the past 12 years, the best run in at least nine decades, prices dropped as much as 9.5 percent from October through Jan. 4.
“It was strong in November and that’s normally a usual seasonal pattern that we see coming through from Indian post- monsoon, wedding season buying,” Marc Ground, a commodity strategist at Standard Bank in Johannesburg, said by phone yesterday. “The fact that January is as high as we see in November usually, that’s unusual. There was probably some Indian buying ahead of this tariff increase.”
Bullion for immediate delivery rose 1.1 percent this year to $1,693, after advancing 7.1 percent last year. It rebounded above the 200-day moving average, currently at about $1,663, earlier this month. Investors own 2,618.8 metric tons through exchange-traded products, a hoard valued at $142.5 billion and bigger than the official reserves of all but two nations, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Central Banks
Gold gained last year as central banks from the U.S. to China pledged more action to bolster economies. The Bank of Japan (8301) said yesterday it will buy about 13 trillion yen ($147 billion) in assets per month from January 2014 and set a 2 percent inflation target.
“Gold should find support from the BOJ stimulus as the liquidity created by the BOJ finds its way into the broader global economy,” Standard Bank analyst Walter de Wet wrote in the report. “We still expect $1,700 to provide resistance and $1,660 to provide support. If gold manages to break through $1,700, we would target $1,720.”
India raised import duties on gold and platinum to 6 percent immediately from 4 percent. A levy on gold ore, concentrate and so-called dore bars for refining will be doubled to 4 percent, and an excise tax on refined gold will climb to 5 percent from 3 percent. About 80 percent of India’s current- account deficit, the broadest measure of trade, tracking goods, services and investment income, is due to gold imports, according to the Reserve Bank of India.
Buying gold is considered auspicious in India during religious festivals and weddings. The festivals start in August and end in November, and are followed by the wedding season.
Financial bookies expect FTSE and CAC 40 to open up as much as +0.4%, DAX up as much as +0.3%.
12:37 PM
alphaadvisory
Zinc futures up 0.50 pc
12:28 PM
alphaadvisory
New Delhi, Jan 23 (PTI) Zinc futures prices today edged up by 0.50 per cent to Rs 110.55 per kg amid a firm global trend and better domestic demand, as speculators enlarged positions.
At the Multi Commodity Exchange, zinc for delivery in January edged up by 55 paise, or 0.50 per cent, to Rs 110.55 per kg, with a business turnover of 2,115 lots.
Likewise, the metal for delivery in February traded higher by 55 paise, or 0.50 per cent, to Rs 111.25 per kg, with a business turnover of 203 lots.
Marketmen said improved demand in the spot market amid a firming trend in base metals overseas, supported the rise in metal prices at futures trade.
Cardamom futures up 0.60 pc on seasonal demand
12:26 PM
alphaadvisory
New Delhi, Jan 23 (PTI) Cardamom prices edged higher by Rs 6.50 to Rs 1,075.50 per kg in futures trade today as speculators enlarged positions, driven by seasonal demand in the spot markets.
Besides, tight stocks position in the spot markets following restricted arrivals from the growing belts, also supported the upside in cardamom prices at futures trade.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange, cardamom for February contract rose by Rs 6.50, or 0.60 per cent, to Rs 1,075.50 per kg, with a trading volume of 698 lots.
The spice for delivery in March contracts traded Rs 5.20, or 0.47 per cent, higher at Rs 1,108.90 per kg, with a business volume of 225 lots.
Traders said rising demand in spot market on account of marriage season against restricted arrivals from producing regions, mainly pushed up cardamom prices at futures market.
Potato futures extend gains on limited supply, strong demand
12:26 PM
alphaadvisory
New Delhi, Jan 23 (PTI) Supported by pick-up in spot demand and restricted supplies, potato futures prices today rose by another Rs 7.30 to Rs 812.60 per quintal.
At the Multi Commodity Exchange, potato for delivery in April traded higher by Rs 7.30, or 0.90 per cent, to Rs 812.60 per quintal, with a business turnover of 12 lots.
The potato for March contract also inched up by Rs 4.90, or 0.60 per cent, to Rs 820 per quintal, with a trading volume of 45 lots.
Analysts said improved demand against less arrivals from growing regions mainly helped potato prices to trade higher at futures trade.
Bharti Airtel, Vodafone and Idea hike call tariffs
12:25 PM
alphaadvisory
New Delhi: In what could be a major blow to consumers, major mobile service providers, Bharti Airtel, Vodafone and Idea Cellular have hike call tariffs by almost 100 percent.
As per media reports, Airtel and Idea have hiked the tariffs by almost a double while Vodafone has also increased the voice call rates steeply.
While the country’s leading mobile service provided Bharti Airtel has doubled the call rates from Rupee 1 per minute to Rs 2 per minute, Idea has hiked its call rates from 1.2 paise per second to 2 paise per second, said the report.
No detail of Vodafone’s hike in tariff was given though reports claimed the company has hiked its call tariff.
World Economic Forum kicks off in Davos
12:21 PM
alphaadvisory
More than 1500 world leaders have reached Davos to attend the annual World Economic Forum. The theme for the summit this year is 'resilient dynamism'.
Tuesday, January 22, 2013
COMING UP DATA TO WATCH
5:08 PM
alphaadvisory
8:30pm - USD Existing Home Sales, 8:30pm -USD Richmond Manufacturing Index, 11:30pm- EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
MCX Copper trades weak on inventory data, trade volumes up
3:53 PM
alphaadvisory
Copper prices in India’s Multi Commodities Exchange (MCX) are witnessing a sideway-to-down trend. MCX Copper trade volume was seen rising today on account of weakness in prices. Rise in the Copper inventories has pushed the demand of the commodity downwards. MCX Copper is trading around 435-440 Rs/kg levels.
On Tuesday trade, Copper February contract rose to a high of 438.65 Rs/kg and is expected to trade in downtrend in the near term. Support is now seen at Rs 432-433 levels and resistance at 439-441, analysts said.
US Copper is trading in a sideways-up phenomenon, rise in Copper inventories and consequent fall in prices has pushed the demand of the metal. Climatic conditions have also reflected the international markets. US Copper is trading around 3.67 $/ton levels on Tuesday.
On daily charts, MCX Copper is signaling sideways-down trend, RSI at 41.95 is not bullish at all. The current market prices are way below 20 day SMA which was 444.40 Rs/kg.
Expectations of recovery from US and China have stabilized the metal, but the weak demand from China has also reflected the demand of the commodity. Depreciation in Indian Rupee has also reflected the Copper prices.
China steel demand seen rising 3.1 percent in 2013
3:50 PM
alphaadvisory
BEIJING – Chinese steel demand is expected to rise by 3.1 percent in 2013, 0.6 percentage points higher than last year as the economy recovers, the country's steel industry association said on Tuesday.
But the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) said in its regular market report that while demand was set to improve this year, oversupply problems would continue to limit price increases and eat into steel firm earnings.
CISA said that the recent surge in imported iron ore prices had put steel firms under heavy pressure, with the rise in costs "far exceeding" any increase in domestic steel product prices.
Chinese crude steel output reached a record 716.5 million metric tons in 2012, but the growth rate of 3.1 percent was 5.8 percentage points slower than in the previous year as the slowing economy eroded demand from major downstream sectors such as real estate and automobiles.
A Reuters poll forecast that steel output would rise to 749 million metric tons this year, up 4.5 percent on the year.
Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2013/01/22/china-steel-demand-seen-rising-31-percent-in-2013-cisa/#ixzz2IhMQwp00
Lead may move up in 2013 on adverse weather in China: Deutsche Bank
2:40 PM
alphaadvisory
Deutsche Bank estimates the replacement battery sector accounts for 43% of global lead consumption. In China, it expects the demand growth of auto replacement battery is likely to account for the lion and rsquo;s share of lead demand growth in the coming years as the vehicle fleet continues to rise.
BASE AND PRECIOUS METALS – European Morning View – Metals well placed to test higher
2:08 PM
alphaadvisory
London 22/01/2013 - The metals put in a fairly quiet day yesterday, which considering the US was closed is not so surprising. Base metals closed down an average of 0.3 percent, with nickel down the most with a 0.7 percent fall to $17,430, copper was down 0.4 percent to $8,055, while tin managed to hold in positive territory, closing at $25,044. Precious metals faired better with a 0.3 percent average gain, gold was up 0.4 percent at $1,689.40, while palladium was off 0.6 percent at $714.00 as profit-taking seems to have capped the upside for now.
This morning the metals are up across the board with average gains of around 0.4 percent, copper leads the way with a 0.9 percent gain to $8,125.50, while aluminium is the laggard as it is up just $1 at $2,046. On the precious metals gold, silver and palladium are up 0.3 percent with gold at $1,694.10, while platinum is up 0.2 percent at $1,680.25. Volumes on the LME as of 07:04 GMT were 5,618 lots, slightly below last week’s average for this time of day at 6,295 lots.
The Bank of Japan has doubled its inflation target to two percent, but has put back the start of open-ended asset purchases until the start of next year. It said it will then buy $13 trillion yen ($146 billion) in assets per month. The delay has strengthened the yen slightly, but with a higher inflation target now and the likelihood of hefty QE in 2014, (which we would have thought might be brought forward in need be), the markets might well have something to look forward to - it looks as though it might be a case of Japan QE taking over from US QE.
In Shanghai the base metals are up an average of 0.5 percent with copper leading the way with a 0.9 percent gain to Rmb 58,770, zinc is up 0.7 percent at Rmb 15,500, lead is up 0.4 percent at Rmb 15,360, while aluminium is off 0.1 percent at Rmb 15,270. Rebar is off 0.3 percent at Rmb 3,905, while gold is off 0.1 percent at Rmb 341.20/g.
Spot copper in Changjiang is up 0.4 percent at Rmb 57,850-58,050, so remains in contango with the futures, while the LME/Shanghai arb window remains shut with the ratio at 7.24.
Equities – the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up 0.6 percent yesterday, the Dow was closed and in Asia this morning the Nikkei has dipped, last off 0.4 percent as the BoJ has said the start of open-ended QE will not start until 2014, which has lifted the yen slightly. The Hang Seng is up 0.2 percent, the MSCI Asia Apex is up 0.4 percent, while China’s CSI 300 is down 0.5 percent.
Currencies – the dollar has turned lower with the dollar index at 79.75, down from a recent high of 80.19, the euro is upbeat at 1.3358, the recent high being 1.3404, while the yen is firmer at 89.00 up from a low of 90.21, as is the aussie at 1.0555, while sterling is weaker at 1.5850 as is the yuan at 6.2211.
The economic agenda is busy today, it includes: German and EU ZEW economic sentiment, Spanish house prices, UK industrial order expectations and in the US existing home sales and the Richmond manufacturing index. ECB Draghi is speaking at 6pm GMT – see table attached for more details.
Our view remains friendly towards the base and precious metals, we feel the outlooks for China, the US and now possibly Japan, look brighter and that should help underpin firmer metal prices. That said, the US debt ceiling issue may well throw cold water on the US prospects and that could have far reaching implications and lead to some austerity in the US later in the year. But assuming US policymakers do not scupper the recovery, we feel the global outlook is brighter and even in Europe the end of destocking may well see apparent demand pick-up. For precious metals, we feel supply worries in South Africa will underpin the PGMs, while competitive currency devaluation may well fuel further monetarisation of gold and silver.
Titan, Gitanjali Gems shares fall on gold duty hike
1:59 PM
alphaadvisory
Shares in jewellery makers like Titan Industries and Gitanjali Germs traded with over 2 per cent losses on Tuesday. Most other big jewellery retailers saw selling pressure in a flat market today.
The government on Monday raised the import duty on gold and platinum by 2 per cent to 6 per cent, the second such increase in less than one year. The government wants to discourage gold buying as the precious metal is the biggest contributor to the import bill after crude oil.
Most analysts, however, attributed the selling in these stocks to a knee jerk reaction.
"Given India's penchant for gold for weddings and other religious ceremonies, a sharp fall in volumes is unlikely, in our view," global brokerage Nomura said, adding that "the hike in the gold import duties will only shift gold shipments to "unofficial channels".
In the past, imposition of import duty has had some salutary effect in moderating official gold imports. In March 2012, the government doubled the import duty on gold from 2 per cent to 4 per cent. As a result, gold import volumes contracted by around 25 per cent year-on-year during the first three quarters of 2012.
The additional imposition of import duty could lead to gold imports moderating to 750-800 MT. However, we do not expect gold imports to fall much more than that as consumption demand for gold (around 65 per cent of gold demand) and investment demand (nearly 35 per cent) have already moderated close to their averages.
"It would not have an impact on demand at all because the demand for gold and gold jewellery has remained strong even though the prices of gold have been rising... Gold and property have been two saviours for Indian households in the face of high inflation," Sanjeev Agarwal, CEO of Gitanjali Exports told NDTV Profit.
Shares in Gitanjali Gems traded 2.2 per cent lower as of 1.10 p.m. on the BSE while Titan Industries shares fell 2 per cent to Rs. 270.80. Rajesh Exports shares were down 1 per cent to Rs. 135.55.
In contrast, the broader Sensex traded 0.11 per cent lower at 20,080.
Today is 5th anniversary of d mega fall of indian equity mkt . On 22nd Jan 2008 NF crashed more than 800 points from the top of the day!!!
1:25 PM
alphaadvisory
Govt's move to hike customs duty will have loud impact on Bullion
1:22 PM
alphaadvisory
The hike sums up to around Rs 60,000 (approx) per kilogram of gold.
The government's move to hike the customs duty from 4 to 6 percent will have a loud impact on the Bullion sector. The hike sums up to around Rs 60,000 (approx) per kilogram of gold. To be clear, with this duty hike a difference of 7 percent between the international and domestic price of the yellow metal is evident.
This may lead to rise illegal channels and malicious activities with respect to importing gold and related products like jewellery etc., in the country. In turn it will lead to an increase in unemployment among the skilled artisans of the country (around 1-2 million people depend on this sector to earn their livelihood) as well the businesses of local jewelers across the country.
The government should harness the existing reserve of gold in our country rather than turning towards imports and implementing this alarming hike on customs duty. Also other opportunities for revenue generation, like increasing exports should be explored by the government of India. Hiking the duty on imports will in no way, curtail the demand, as the precious metal has always been regarded as one of the best investment options for social security.
Prithviraj Kothari, Managing Director, RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd.
Global jobless will hit record 200 million in 2013
1:00 PM
alphaadvisory
Geneva: The global jobless queue will stretch to more than 200 million people in 2013, the International Labour Organization (ILO) said in its annual report on Tuesday, repeating a warning it has made at the start of each of the last six years. The UN jobs watchdog estimates unemployment will rise by 5.1 million in 2013 to more than 202 million, and by another 3 million in 2014, following a rise of 4.2 million in 2012.
If those predictions are right, global unemployment will hit a record. But the ILO has revised its jobless figures down each year as the number of those giving up the job hunt altogether swells, meaning they are no longer classed as unemployed.
A Reuters analysis of previous ILO reports shows that estimates of unemployment made in each of the last six years have subsequently been cut. The original 2007 joblessness figure of 189.9 million is now put at 169.0 million - 11 per cent lower.
The UN jobs watchdog estimates unemployment will rise by 5.1 million in 2013 and by another 3 million in 2014.
Global jobless will hit record 200 million in 2013: ILO
Figures for 2008-2010 have also fallen by 10-15 million from the original estimates. Most of the drop is due to people giving up looking for work, said Jose Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, head of director of labour market analysis at the Geneva-based ILO.
"These are people who, because of the seriousness of the crisis, because of long-term unemployment, have given up hope, have decided to not search for work any more, and therefore they are not counted as unemployed but more as discouraged," he said.
The ILO's revised figures mean global unemployment has risen by 28 million since 2007, before the start of the financial crisis, said ILO Director-General Guy Ryder.
With a further 39 million "discouraged" people withdrawing from the labour market over the same period, the crisis could be seen to have created a global jobs gap of 67 million, he said.
However, despite the greater number people believed to have given up on looking for work, the ILO's latest report did not revise figures given a year ago for the total number of people in the labour market.
The so-called "labour force participation rate", which measures the proportion of the working-age population who are working or looking for work, is thought to have remained steady at 64.1 per cent for the past three years, showing no sign of the labour force shrinking.
The figure had been above 65 per cent until 2007 but fell in each of the subsequent three years.
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