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Friday, May 2, 2014

El Nino, polls, weak economy: Should you still buy gold?

Sandeep Sharma, senior research analyst, Hem Securities advises investors to stick to buy on dips approach. From a technical point of view, for traders, gold seems to moving in a sideways trend within Rs 28,000- Rs 29,000/10 gms range.

The gold bug has bitten us yet again! Yes, its Akshaya Tritiya, the second biggest festival after Dhanteras for buying the yellow metal. Gold jewellers would push sales today , while investors would want to add some glitter to their portfolios. The general sentiment for the bullion remains weak as of now and premiums high. Also, there are concerns that ongoing Lok Sabha elections may play as a spoilt sport for overall jewellery business and fears of impact of El Nino on monsoons might dampen gold demand in rural areas. Given these factors, what would be the best way to play the precious metal this Akshaya Tritiya? Moneycontrol.com caught up with experts who shared investment and trading strategies on gold. Sandeep Sharma, senior research analyst, Hem Securities is optimistic on gold from a long-term perspective and he doesn't give much weigthage to these two events in context of hampering gold demand. He advises investors to stick to buy on dips approach. From a technical point of view, for traders, gold seems to moving in a sideways trend within Rs 28,000- Rs 29,000/10 gms range. "One can opt for a buy call at Rs 28,200/10gms and short call at Rs 28900/10gms," he adds. Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, Research Director, Commtrendz has called it quits this time."Whether I advise or not, investors will buy gold for Akshaya Trithiya. Unfortunately, prevailing high premiums could dent their appetite," he says. According  to him, both these factors may not work positively for gold. "The new government is not likely to change any policies, which could rub the RBI on the wrong side. The impact of El Nino is still very unclear, it is just a fear as of now," he says. This is good time for investors to buy atleast 50 percent of their requirements, CA Kaushal Jaini, Head – Wealth  Management and Research, Dani Securities says. He doesn't see a major correction in gold price going ahead. ETFs Those looking to take the exchange traded fund ( ETF ) route can consider investing in Reliance Gold ETF and Birla Sun Life Gold ETF, recommends Kiran ​Kumar Kavikondala, Director WealthRays Group, a Bangalore-based PF consulting firm. Investors who don't hold a demat account could buy mutual funds like Axis Gold Fund or Kotak Gold Fund instead of ETFs. Active investors can invest in exclusive gold funds, he suggests. Wealth Builder Funds Passive investors who don't have much idea about asset allocation or are not inclined to rebalance their portfolios regularly, should invest in funds that combine equity, debt and gold hybrid funds, he adds. These are commonly known as wealth builder funds. While parking money in such funds, investors generally expect that at any given point of time at least two of the three asset classes will perform. However, these funds fall under the tax ambit and their performance is not comparable with any other category of funds, he adds. Further, investor should limit their exposure to gold to around 10-15 percent of their overall investment portfolio only if they have an investment horizon in excess of five-seven years, he adds.

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