February 2013 ~ Alpha Advisory

Thursday, February 28, 2013

India Budget FY 2013-14: Highlights

12:53 PM

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--Duty free limit for Gold raised to Rs. 50,000 in case of a male passenger and Rs. 1 lakh for female passengers. --One-time Amnesty Scheme for service tax due from 2007: FM --To set aside '9,000 cr as compensation to states for CST: FM --To impose service tax on all AC restaurants: FM --Nirbhaya Fund for women safety --Royalty tax hiked from 10% to 25%. --Transactions on immovable properties are usually undervalued. This justifying his move of imposing TDS of 1% on land deals over Rs 50 lakh. --High-end smart phones to get more expensive. --SMEs allowed to listed on MSME exchange without making a public offer --SED on cigarettes hiked by 18%; cigars and cheerots too--Custom duty on imported motor vehicles hiked --To up import duty on set-top boxes to 10% from 5% --To...

12:51 PM

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10:59 AM

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According to Associated Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ASSOCHAM),"the Indian industry is holding its breath anxious whether it will face any new taxes at a time when the economy instead needs a booster dose for growth, an ASSOCHAM quick poll indicated." “Tax revenues are not likely to show big rise in the wake of modest economic expansion. The only option before the government is to cut expenditures to get back to the fiscal discipline over which there are no choices available,” said the poll report. Meanwhile the commodity futures industry and the Ministry for Food and Consumer Affairs have raised concerns over possible announcement of Commodity Transaction Tax (CTT) on the lines of Security Transaction Tax (STT) which is likely to cause trade volumes to fall in a yet to mature ...

10:58 AM

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The downtrend seen in the market in the past one month suggests that traders are bracing for the budget with low expectations. Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services Ltd. BSE 22.70 0.20 (0.89%) Vol:1083 shares traded NSE 22.60 0.05 (0.22%) Vol:17067 shares traded Prices|Financials|Company Info|Reports MUMBAI: Volatility in the Indian market is likely to remain high in trade today as Finance Minister P Chidambaram presents the Union Budget and at the same time traders will square off open positions on the last day of February series. The last two sessions of trade have seen sharp movements on...

10:57 AM

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Gold demand jumps on fears of higher import duty

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2:49 PM

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Reassurance from the U.S. Federal Reserve about its stimulus program helped stabilize the euro and European shares on Wednesday, as Italy prepared to test the reaction to its inconclusive election in the bond market. Italy will auction up to 6.5 billion euros of new 5- and 10-year bonds at around 1000 GMT after gridlocked elections reignited fears about the euro zone debt crisis. "Markets have started to price in risks of ungovernability of the country in the coming months, with possible domino effects on the rest of the euro area," said Newedge economist Annalisa Piazza. "Political instability is expected to prevail ...and even a grand coalition government would be seen only as a temporary option, probably not able to continue the so-much needed reforms process." Having fallen...

2:47 PM

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1:56 PM

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The dollar eased against the euro on Wednesday as investors took fears related to the Italian political situation in stride, and after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said he backed the central bank’s asset-purchase program. The ICE dollar index DXY -0.16% , which measures the greenback’s performance against six major global currencies, slipped to 81.788 by late afternoon in Tokyo from 81.948 in North America Wednesday. ...

1:35 PM

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HE TAKEAWAY: German GFK consumer confidence survey rises to 5.9 for March -> consumer expectations fall in line with Bundesbank forecast -> Euro rises German consumer confidence rose to a four month high according to the GFK survey released for March. The survey was reported at 5.9, meeting expectations and up from 5.8 in the February survey. German business expectations rose to -2.5 in the February survey, while income expectations dropped to 31.8. GFK said in a statement that “German consumers anticipate that the economy will steadily improve in the coming months.” Following the economic decline in Q4, the Bundesbank is predicting that the German economy will return to growth in the current quarter on improved industrial production. The European Union predicts 0.5%...

1:33 PM

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The Euro may fall as borrowing costs rise at an Italian bond auction while the British Pound is under pressure before the release of revised fourth-quarter GDP data. Talking Points Euro to Fall on Strong Pickup in Italian Borrowing Costs at Bond Auction British Pound Under Pressure Before Revised Fourth-Quarter GDP Data Japanese Yen Resumes Rebound as Nikkei Sinks, Boosting Haven Demand Italy remains in focus as Rome prepares to sell €6.5 billion in 5- and 10-year bonds. Traders will keep a close eye on average yield and bid-to-cover readings, with a marked pickup in borrowing costs and/or a drop in demand likely to be seen as signs of rising sovereign risk amid political uncertainty in the wake of the weekend’s election. Needless to say, such an outcome bodes ill for...

1:32 PM

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There’s hope on the horizon for drivers. A break in the gasoline price increase should come in April, oil analysts have said. The March-April prices at the pump are expected to peak at between $3.80 and $4.10 per gallon before heading back down a few cents. All of this comes as wholesale oil prices continue to drop. Crude oil prices fell about 2.5 percent this past week. That should be good news for consumers but the pump prices keep going up. The spike comes as refiners begin to draw down on supplies as they change over from winter to more expensive summer blends. It’s also the time when refineries shut down for maintenance. The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in Massachusetts this week is $3.77. In New Hampshire, the average is $3.74. The national average is $3.78...

12:17 PM

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LIMITED PERIOD OFFER

5:21 PM

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TRAIL OFFER : PAY JUST Rs 500( PLUS TAX) FOR 10 DAYS TRAIL TIPS (LIMITED PERIOD OFFE...

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10:06 AM

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PRECIOUS-Gold bounces on stronger euro; focus on Fed testimony

6:02 PM

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U.S. gold futures hit session high at $1,592/oz * Markets eye U.S. Fed's Bernanke semi-annual testimony (Updates prices, adds comments, changes dateline from Singapore) By Clara Denina LONDON, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Gold rose on Monday, as rallying stock markets and a broadly lower dollar helped the metal recoup some of last week's losses, but investors were cautious ahead of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony to Congress later this week. Analysts said the market was also finding background support from a downgrade of Britain's credit rating by Moody's and signs that Japan would continue with ultra easy monetary policy. Spot gold rose 0.7 percent to $1,592 by 1121 GMT. It hit a seven-month low of $1,554.49 on Thursday after minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's last meeting triggered...

10:24 AM

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Asian shares recover from steep loss, growth worry caps

10:53 AM

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Asian shares clawed back some of the previous day's steep losses on Friday as investors took some comfort in the Federal Reserve's commitment to ultra-soft monetary policy for now, but weak U.S. and European data capped prices. Worries about the global economic outlook lifted spot gold 0.3 percent to $1,581.40 an ounce, while sluggish data underscoring the need for the Fed's continued monetary stimulus pushed the dollar down 0.2 percent and away from a 5-1/2-month high against a basket of currencies .DXY seen on Thursday. The euro inched up 0.1 percent to $1.3197 after falling to a six-week low of $1.31615 on Thursday, and was trading up 0.1 percent to 122.85 yen after hitting a three-week trough of 122.25 yen on Thursday. Most risk assets slid to 2013 lows on Thursday, in part...

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10:42 AM

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Commodities expert and precious metals forecaster Eugen Weinberg from Germany's Commerzbank discusses how gold buying will pick up in the second half of the year and push prices towards $2,000, in an interview with Bloomberg TV. While there is no compelling reason to own gold at the moment, since the Euro crisis is abating and inflation hasn't picked up yet, he thinks the investment interest will come back and continuous buying by the central banks will elevate the price. "Going in like a bear, coming out like a bull" is how Weinberg characterizes the next 12 months for gold. At the moment, gold havens aren't needed because other commodities have recovered since last year and are likely to do so further this year. Overall, he believes sentiment is improving with...

10:42 AM

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Sensex succumbs 317 points on global woes

4:30 PM

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Indian equity markets opened gap down amid weak global cues. Global markets suffered heavy sell off on the news that US Federal Reserve could slow down its bond buying program. Markets plunged led by Metal, Banking & Financial, Capital Goods and FMCG stocks.Markets continued selling pressure throughout the day and made fresh low of 2013 in afternoon session tracking weak European cues. Indices ended near its low point of the day. All the sectoral indices turned in red. IT stocks also gave up morning gain after continued selling pressure.Market breadth remained extremely bearish out of 50 Nifty stocks only 3 stocks closed in green. Midcap and Smallcap indices closed with loss of 1.64% and 1.74% respectively. Benchmark indices closed with loss of over one and half percent in...

4:28 PM

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In the first eleven months of 2012 world mine production of copper increased by around 4% compared with production in the same period of 2011, International Copper Study Group said. Concentrate production increased by 3.8% while solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) was up by 5.8%. Increases in Chile (3.7%), China (26%), Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) (21%), Mexico (19%) and Peru (6%) more than offset declines inAustralia (4%) and Indonesia (30%). On a regional basis, production rose by 8% in Africa, 4.4% in the Americas. 5.9% in Asia, and3.2% in Europe, but declined by 4.3% in Oceania. The average world mine capacity utilization rate for the first eleven months of 2012 increased to 81.2% from 80.1% in the same period of 2011. World refined production increased...

3:22 PM

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11:37 AM

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11:22 AM

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Here are 10 things that may help you be a better investor, some ways to think differently from the crowd in that pursuit to achieve market dominance.1. Do not think about making money, think about losing money - the first step toward success is accepting that losing is part of trading. You will not be right all of the time, you can not always trade your way out of a bad situation. There will be times when you simply have to walk away with a loss. The key is to keeping the losses small and manageable. When the market proves you wrong, take the loss.2. Do not think you can average down to win - it is a logical idea, add more to a losing position with the expectation that the market must eventually go your way. Many times this strategy will work but, when it does not work, the loss...

10:48 AM

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There were stray incidents of violence at the start of a two-day strike called by trade unions to protest against high prices and policy changes, including foreign investment in supermarkets, that they said could hurt employment. Many banks were closed and public transport was disrupted in several parts of the country. As many as 11 trade unions, including the ruling Congress party affiliated Indian National Trade Unions Congress (INTUC), said the first day of the protest that they had called jointly was successful in putting pressure on the government to listen to them. “At least 95% of our workers from steel, manufacturing, mining and transport sectors came on the road to protest,” said G. Sanjeeva Reddy, president of INTUC. “The government and the party (Congress) have...

10:46 AM

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Japanese corporations are diversifying production in Asia to rely less on China as a production base amid rising labor costs there and growing risks stemming from bilateral tensions. Funai Electric Co. which makes DVD and Blu-ray Disc recorders and printers in China for export to the U.S. and other markets, plans to gradually shift production of entry-level and midpriced models to a factory it will build in the Philippines. The new plant, slated to go onstream in 2014, will be located on a roughly 120,000 sq. meter plot that the firm bought in an industrial park near Manila. The overall investment in the factory is estimated at 3-4 billion yen. Funai also plans to lift the output capacity of its television factory in Thailand in the summer of 201...

10:46 AM

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China’s CSI300 index, which tracks China’s largest listed firms, slid more than 3 percent on Thursday on concerns that recent central bank behavior had signalled the beginning of a tightening cycle. Analysts said that investors were worried the central bank was draining funds more aggressively than expected. The People’s Bank of China let a net 910 billion yuan ($145.89 billion) drain from the interbank market this week. “The central bank drained over 800 billion yuan from the money market, which sparked worries that liquidity conditions might be tightening,” said Chen Shaodan, analyst at New Times Securities. In addition, the central bank this week returned to using longer-term forward repos to drain funds, instead of reverse repos which inject funds,...

10:17 AM

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GOOD MORNING TO ALL

10:31 AM

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LME COPPER : UP 6950 KEDIA ZINC: DOWN 0 ALUMINIUM : UP 600 NICKEL: UP 114 LEAD: DOWN -100 TIN: DOWN -135

2:39 PM

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2:31 PM

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Barclays' research into the Chinese NPI (Nickel Pig Iron) sector and in particular the ongoing expansion in low-cost, high-quality product rotary kiln electric furnace capacity, means that there is an inexorable trend in China towards two outcomes in the nickel market: --China will require fewer refined nickel units for import – as much as 170Kt of Ni-contained NPI capacity will ramp up in 2013, which more than outweighs the 78Kt of nickel production expected from key new HPAL and ferronickel mine projects, and --Given that the nickel market remains in significant surplus, prices need to trade into the cost curve and current stainless market conditions point to a necessity for nickel prices to trade close to average NPI sector costs, which are now close to the $15,700/t level. Whilst...

1:10 PM

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Implementation of Single Supervisory Mechanism and Single Resolution Mechanism would be of crucial importance in the progress towards financial union, according to Mario Draghi, President of European Central Bank. Addressing the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament on Monday, Draghi said that there are four main reasons for a Single Resolution Mechanism with a Single Resolution Authority at its centre.The first reason is that only a Single Resolution Authority will ensure timely and impartial decision-making focused on the European dimension. In a situation where a cross-border resolution is required, the Single Resolution Authority would avoid national focus and pursue the optimal resolution strategy, thus mitigating coordination problems. The...

12:41 PM

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Gold closed sharply lower on Monday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastic and the RSI remain bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If it extends the decline off last October's high, the 87% retracement level of the May-October rally crossing is the next downside targe...

10:28 AM

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U.S. markets is closed today, February 18 on President’s Day

11:18 AM

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11:15 AM

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Oil prices fell to near $95 a barrel Monday after US industrial production weakened and Europe remained mired in recession. Benchmark crude for March delivery was down 25 cents to $95.61 per barrel at midday Bangkok time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell $1.45 to finish at $95.86 a barrel on the Nymex on Friday. Brent crude, used to price many varieties of foreign oil, rose 14 cents to $117.80 per barrel in London. The Federal Reserve said Friday that US factory production slowed in January, mostly because of a big drop in output at auto factories. Most analysts think the slowdown is temporary, but it was enough to raise concern about the still-sluggish economic recovery. Traders were also concerned about a deepening recession across...

Gold heads for biggest weekly drop since December

3:04 PM

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11:35 AM

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11:35 AM

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11:34 AM

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Stop losses are an essential part of any risk management system because they help traders resist trading on emotions. Whenever you open a trade, you should always set a stop loss. If you stick to your plan and don’t move them, you’ll find you won’t ever let your losses run too long. Remember these rules: 1. A stop loss should be considered and decided before a position is entered. 2. A stop loss should be placed immediately at the time of entry. 3. A stop loss amount should not allow more than a 2% loss of your account balance—for day trades and scalp trades, a stop loss should not allow more than 1% loss of account balanc...

11:21 AM

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ECB says inflation will fall below 2% in the coming months, says economic weakness will prevail in early 2013

2:36 PM

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2:32 PM

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12:14 PM

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U.S. ZONE Core Retail Sales m/m 0.2% VS 0.3% Retail Sales m/m 0.1% VS 0.5% Import Prices m/m 0.6% VS -0.1%

7:24 PM

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1:39 PM

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Top daytraders have the discipline to follow their daytrading system rigorously, because they know that only the trades that are signaled by their system have a greater rate of success. Matching a method of trading with your personality is the only way you will ever feel comfortable in the markets. Some websites have sought to profit from day traders by offering them hot tips and stock picks for a fee. Day trading is an investment tactic with a relatively short investment. You need to position yourself so that you can endure long strings of losses, and maintain your day trading system. Trading successfully is by no means a simple matter. A day trader should treat their capital as 100% risk capital and should not have to unduly worry that the whole amount of this capital may...

1:34 PM

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MCX Silver February was trading at lower levels for a week. Crucial fundamental factors have impacted Silver futures for the last two months.After the double top pattern from October to December, the commodity has been bearish since the beginning of 2013. Silver crossed the 59483 levels and decremented to 57600 levels. The strength of the rally is not sufficient for an upward movement for the week as there may be short covering at lower levels.On charts, Silver tracks are showing a bearish phenomenon. It is trading well below 20 day SMA at 58410 levels. MACD is less than zero implies the weakness of the rally; RSI at 41.90 is not a corrective term at all. Stochastic level recovered from oversold territory and is moving around lower levels.Rate of change oscillator was slight...

11:16 AM

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The U.S. and Europe may have been skirting the edge of financial peril for years, but Christopher Ecclestone, who is the principal and mining strategist of London-based Hallgarten & Co., told The Metals Report that the gold price should drop this year as investors realize that there's no more cause for panic. However, the frank and expressive Ecclestone has plenty of other suggestions for what's "sexy" this year (zinc, copper and specialty metals), even as he rips into "business as usual" gold majors and chastises any management team with the nerve to offer a 0.5% dividend. The Metals Report: Christopher, you believe that the market will recover in 2013. Why? Chris Ecclestone: We'll have a different type of recovery than we've had in the past, when everything was driven by...

7:21 AM

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MCX Silver looks dull as US Silver collapse

5:18 PM

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Silver prices at India’s Multi Commodities Exchange (MCX) witnessed a bearish phenomenon. The commodity is now trading around 57325-57537 Rs/kg levels.MCX Silver is moving to the oversold territory as high profit booking were witnessed in the markets. Weak global sentiments have impacted the domestic market prices. However, weak demand from China on lunar New Year holidays has kept prices in check.On Tuesday trade, Silver March contract rose to a high of 57537 Rs/kg at 3pm IST and is expected to trade in a bearish phenomenon. Support is now seen at Rs 57200, 56800 levels and resistance at 58200 & 58800, analysts said.On global markets, Comex Silver declined for the third consecutive day. It declined 0.19% and closed at 30.910 $/oz. Weakness in Dollar Index have impacted the...

5:17 PM

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Indian bourses opened flat amid subdued global cues. Indices remained lackluster ahead of IIP data. Realty and Metal stocks remained under pressure while Oil, Auto and Pharma stocks gained in opening sessio...

5:17 PM

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copper is looks sideways to bearish. Support is there at 442 while 445 is the resistan...

3:41 PM

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he Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities fell 0.2 percent to 676.47 at 4:38 p.m. Singapore time. The UBS Bloomberg CMCI index of 26 raw materials dropped 0.3 percent to 1,600.817. CRUDE OIL West Texas Intermediate oil traded near the highest level in more than a week in New York after the biggest gain since January. U.S. crude stockpiles probably increased last week, a Bloomberg News survey shows. spread between Brent and WTI should come together.” Crude for March delivery was at $96.94 a barrel, down 9 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 4:17 p.m. Tokyo time. The volume of all futures traded was 15 percent above the 100-day average. The contract increased $1.31 to $97.03 yesterday, the most since Jan. 2 and the highest closing price since...

2:49 PM

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Glencore International PLC (GLEN.LN) reported Tuesday a mixed set of production results on a pro-forma basis with Xstrata PLC (XTA.LN) as base metals output largely fell in 2012 while coal, oil, and agricultural output rose. The report marks the first set of production results provided by Glencore on a pro-forma basis ahead of the completion of its planned all-share merger with Xstrata. Glencore is still waiting for regulatory approval from China before closing the deal. Glencore and Xstrata last month extended the deadline for closing the deal to March 15 in order to secure necessary regulatory approvals. Glencore didn't provide any details about its marketing activities, a key earnings generator for the combined company. The pro-forma figures showed that total copper contained...

2:44 PM

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2:23 PM

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HomeTechnical Analysis Report MCX Mentha Oil retreats from bullish territory, rally over Author : John Godson February 12, 2013 13:55 MCX Mentha Oil was trading at higher levels for a week. Lower volumes have made Mentha Oil retreat from bullish territory.After the recovery from 1306 levels; sudden spike was developed in the charts with a 90 degree angle, hence sudden fall is expected as the strength of the rally is not sufficient for an upward movement for the week.On charts, Mentha Oil tracks are showing a sideways phenomenon as it is recovering from the overbought territory. 20 day SMA crossover at 1324 levels, the commodity has been maintained above the levels. MACD is still negative, RSI at 54.73 is neutral and stochastic level recovered from overbought...

11:52 AM

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Natural rubber production of India declined by 5 per cent to 97,000 tons in January. The consumption also fell by 9 per cent to 75,000 tons during the period, according to data from Rubber Board. The country had produced 1,02,500 tons natural rubber while it had consumed 82,535 tons in January 2012.Natural rubber imports fell by 18 per cent to 28,905 tons in January 2013. The export jumped by more than five-fold to 4,850 tons. For the first ten months this fiscal, natural rubber output rose marginally to 7,90,200 tons from 7,84,400 tons in April-January of 2011-12 fisc...

10:49 AM

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Mumbai: The rupee Tuesday fell by 12 paise to 53.97 against the dollar in early trade, extending losses for the fifth straight session at the Interbank Foreign Exchange (Forex) market due to sustained demand for the US currency from importers. Forex dealers said besides increased demand for the US dollar from importers, RBI concerns that the country's current account deficit is headed to its highest ever this fiscal, also put pressure on the rupee. The domestic currency had lost 35 paise to end at nearly two-week low level of 53.85 in yesterday's trade. Meanwhile, the BSE benchmark index Sensex recovered by 50.20 points, or 0.26 percent, to 19,510.77 in early trade Tuesday....

10:23 AM

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Silver Climbs as Gold Little Changed Before Euro Finance Meeting

1:01 PM

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Silver gained, while gold was little changed before European finance chiefs meet today to discuss aid to Cyprus and Greece. Palladium declined. Silver for immediate delivery advanced as much as 0.3 percent to $31.495 an ounce before trading at $31.4775 at 1:16 p.m. in Singapore. Cash gold traded at $1,668.25 an ounce, while palladium fell 0.4 percent to $752.25 an ounce. Markets in Japan, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Singapore and Malaysia are closed today for public holidays. Euro-area ministers are seeking to win back momentum in fighting the crisis as a tightening contest before Italian elections on Feb. 24-25 and a political scandal in Spain disrupt market calm. European leaders set the budget for 2014-2020 at 960 billion euros ($1.3 trillion), down from an original proposal...

12:24 PM

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11:11 AM

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After Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index (Sensex) and National Stock Exchange (Nifty), India now has a third index called SX40 launched by the MCX Stock Exchange (MCS-SX) which has commenced operations on Monday. MCX-SX said that the SX40 is a free float based index of 40 large cap - liquid stocks representing diversified sectors of the economy.SX40 is designed to measure the economic performance with better representation of various industries and sectors based on ICB®, leading global Industry classification system from FTSE. The Index is devised to offer cost-effective support for investment and structured products such as index futures and option, index portfolio, exchange traded funds, Index funds, etc. SX40 includes companies that have a minimum free float of 10%and is...

10:44 AM

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Brent crude oil prices are trading near nine month highs as Iran has decided it would not cede to demands from the West. Iran’s international relations grabbed the spotlight last week, with the country’s supreme leader Khomeni rejecting the US offer for nuclear talks, providing a further hurdle for diplomacy. Meanwhile, “the relatively positive outlook for international demand is continuing,” said Ric Spooner, a chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney to Bloomberg as he referred to crude oil demand. “The U.S. inventory data, retail sales and industrial production figures toward the end of the week will give an insight into the short-term activity in the U.S.” he added. Brent crude for delivery on April 13 was seen trading at $117.74 a barrel, a loss of $0.07 or 0.06% as of...

10:33 AM

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1. Keep adding to losing positions. What the heck, price bound to turn soon. Martingale method sounds great. Consider adding on double to loosing trades. When price turns I’ll laughing all the way to the bank even I have to close my initial entries at loss. 2. Don’t use any stop-loss Why bother with stop-loss. It’s for pussies anyways 3. Don’t waste time with money management Thank you very much but I already know how to manage my own money. Why bother with money management nonsense. I can use my time doing more trading and making money instead delving into all that mumbo-jumbo technical jargon. 4. Keep trading I cannot afford to loose any opportunities. I need to be always in markets, day in day out. After all life is to short to waste golden opportunities. I cannot afford...

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