Daily Tips

Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Market Metaphors and Perception

What we perceive is not just a function of what is out there, but also the lenses that we wear. Many of our cognitive lenses are so much a part of our thinking that we forget they are there. We assume that what we’re perceiving is what objectively exists…but that’s not always the case.
Some of the most powerful lenses are the metaphors that we use in describing markets. Consider the following:
* A trader views the market as an enemy to be conquered;
* A trader approaches the market as a puzzle to be solved;
* A trader sees the market as a paradise of potential riches;
* A trader regards the market as a mistress to be wooed;
* A trader views the market as a dangerous minefield;
* A trader looks at the market as a video game.
How do these metaphors affect our trading? Our emotional responses to trading? How would being aware of our metaphors–and shifting them–change how we trade and how we experience our trading?

China Lead Concentrate imports dip 34% y y in February Tin 70%


China February refined Nickel imports up 8% y y at 13 1Kt

Given only modest signs of improving stainless activity and a firmly shut import arbitrage window (which has been the case since October last year), there is little from a fundamental perspective to explain either the m/m variation or overall y/y strength in refined imports seen during the January-February period.

Gold price, silver price fall on sluggish demand


Gold price extends losses on weak demand, global cues; silver slips


Friday, March 22, 2013

Cyprus Plan B: A defining moment for Silver and Gold



LONDON(Commodity Online): Cyprus turmoil—though a small country it may look to be; too small to be bailed out—has assumed mammoth proportions. The news reports suggest that Cyprus Parliament members are poised to vote on a Plan B. The moment is a defining one as far as silver and gold futures are concerned.
The said plan may include setting up an 'investment solidarity fund' that would issue bonds on state assets to raise the 5.8bn euros required. The plan may also see the restructuring of Cyprus banking sector wherein bad assets would be pooled and good assets collated under a different head. The Parliament may also enact laws and impose stringent capital controls so that a capital flight is not seen when banks open next week.
Meanwhile, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank decided to maintain the current level of Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) until Monday, for Cyprus.
Thereafter, Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) could only be considered if an EU/IMF programme is in place that would ensure the solvency of the concerned banks in the island nation.
If Cyprus Plan B fails to get a clearance in the Parliament, Cyprus will have to exit Eurozone and start printing its own currency. That would be catastrophic and may prove to be tempting for nations like Greece and who knows, Italy and Spain!
If Europe falls into turmoil, and bank runs spread in a contagion, then gold, silver prices may go up putting a space shuttle to shame.

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

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