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1:56 PM
alphaadvisory
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Friday, May 2, 2014
Gold prices may steady, but outlook broadly bearish
11:46 AM
alphaadvisory
A better tone in the U.S. economy despite geopolitical tensions, weak demand from Asia is weighing heavily on gold's appeal as a hedge.
After a 12 year rally, gold prices ended its bull run in 2013, wherein gold prices lost around 28 percent of its value. Bearish investors have been cheering gold's retreat. The popularity of placing bets on lower gold prices has grown throughout the year. The year 2014 seem to be a good year for gold, as prices once again started its bull run and headed towards $1400 mark making an impressive rally of 14 percent by mid March 2014 and then started declining and headed towards $1300 mark. Prices gained by more than 7 percent in the first four months of 2014 appealing gold as an asset class. In the domestic markets, gold prices gained by around 1.2 percent on year till date basis and gained marginally by around half a percent in Q1 of 2014. Gold’s appeal as a safe haven seems to be declining as stocks sitting inside U.S. exchange warehouses have risen to a 10-month high on weakening of physical demand, particularly from Asia. Also, in the retail gold market, buying sentiment among private bullion investors edged down in March. The Gold Investor Index, which measures the balance of customers adding to gold holdings over those reducing them, was down to 53 in March from 53.5 in February. A reading of 50 signals an equal number of net gold buyers and sellers. Demand from China, the biggest consumer of yellow metal also seem to be waning as net gold flows into China from Hong Kong fell to 85.128 tonnes in March 2014 from 112.314 tonnes in February. Banks are reluctant to bring more gold into the country at a time when demand is soft and a weak yuan would force them to take losses on any sales. Prices on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the platform for all physical gold trades in China, flipped to a discount to spot prices in early March and remained lower than London prices for all of that month. In the last few days, they have been trading either on par or at a very slight premium. This indicates that slowing demand from China the world’s largest consumer of the yellow metal. From Akshaya Tritiya last year, on May 13 till date, gold prices on the MCX is up 7.06 percent (mostly due to weak rupee), while the international markets have declined by around 10 percent in the same time frame as investors have been on a selling mode globally and tough restrictions on import and jewellery businesses have taken the wind out of the sails of the sector. This will continue for this year also as investor’s appetite towards gold as a safe haven has drastically reduced and these will lead to gradual shift of funds from gold to other asset classes like equities exerting downside pressure on gold prices. Outlook Weak physical demand from Asia and continued optimism about US economy are the prime reason for gold prices to be under pressure in the recent weeks. A better tone in the U.S. economy despite geopolitical tensions had recently weighed heavily on gold's appeal as a hedge. A strong economy could mean that the Fed could quicken its path towards a tighter monetary stance. In the immediate-term, support to gold prices will be seen especially as prices in the Indian markets could stabilize before taking a correction further. This is due to the wedding season and the traditional Akshaya Tritiya demand, during which investors and retail consumers in India prefer to make gold purchases (irrespective of the price) due to the auspicious sentiment attached to it. However a note of caution as gold has lost its sheen over the past year on account of waning interest by the ETF investors and investors across the globe are generally in a sell mode.
After a 12 year rally, gold prices ended its bull run in 2013, wherein gold prices lost around 28 percent of its value. Bearish investors have been cheering gold's retreat. The popularity of placing bets on lower gold prices has grown throughout the year. The year 2014 seem to be a good year for gold, as prices once again started its bull run and headed towards $1400 mark making an impressive rally of 14 percent by mid March 2014 and then started declining and headed towards $1300 mark. Prices gained by more than 7 percent in the first four months of 2014 appealing gold as an asset class. In the domestic markets, gold prices gained by around 1.2 percent on year till date basis and gained marginally by around half a percent in Q1 of 2014. Gold’s appeal as a safe haven seems to be declining as stocks sitting inside U.S. exchange warehouses have risen to a 10-month high on weakening of physical demand, particularly from Asia. Also, in the retail gold market, buying sentiment among private bullion investors edged down in March. The Gold Investor Index, which measures the balance of customers adding to gold holdings over those reducing them, was down to 53 in March from 53.5 in February. A reading of 50 signals an equal number of net gold buyers and sellers. Demand from China, the biggest consumer of yellow metal also seem to be waning as net gold flows into China from Hong Kong fell to 85.128 tonnes in March 2014 from 112.314 tonnes in February. Banks are reluctant to bring more gold into the country at a time when demand is soft and a weak yuan would force them to take losses on any sales. Prices on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the platform for all physical gold trades in China, flipped to a discount to spot prices in early March and remained lower than London prices for all of that month. In the last few days, they have been trading either on par or at a very slight premium. This indicates that slowing demand from China the world’s largest consumer of the yellow metal. From Akshaya Tritiya last year, on May 13 till date, gold prices on the MCX is up 7.06 percent (mostly due to weak rupee), while the international markets have declined by around 10 percent in the same time frame as investors have been on a selling mode globally and tough restrictions on import and jewellery businesses have taken the wind out of the sails of the sector. This will continue for this year also as investor’s appetite towards gold as a safe haven has drastically reduced and these will lead to gradual shift of funds from gold to other asset classes like equities exerting downside pressure on gold prices. Outlook Weak physical demand from Asia and continued optimism about US economy are the prime reason for gold prices to be under pressure in the recent weeks. A better tone in the U.S. economy despite geopolitical tensions had recently weighed heavily on gold's appeal as a hedge. A strong economy could mean that the Fed could quicken its path towards a tighter monetary stance. In the immediate-term, support to gold prices will be seen especially as prices in the Indian markets could stabilize before taking a correction further. This is due to the wedding season and the traditional Akshaya Tritiya demand, during which investors and retail consumers in India prefer to make gold purchases (irrespective of the price) due to the auspicious sentiment attached to it. However a note of caution as gold has lost its sheen over the past year on account of waning interest by the ETF investors and investors across the globe are generally in a sell mode.
MCX Goldpetal June contract firms up
11:45 AM
alphaadvisory
Goldpetal prices on MCX were trading with marginal gains on Friday. MCX Goldpetal June contract was trading at Rs 3045 up Rs 5, or 0.16 percent.
At 10:46 hrs MCX GOLDPETAL May contract was trading at Rs 3059 up Rs 3, or 0.10 percent. The GOLDPETAL rate touched an intraday high of Rs 3059 and an intraday low of Rs 3052. So far 735 contracts have been traded. GOLDPETAL prices have moved up Rs 35, or 1.16 percent in the May series so far. MCX GOLDPETAL June contract was trading at Rs 3045 up Rs 5, or 0.16 percent. The GOLDPETAL rate touched an intraday high of Rs 3049 and an intraday low of Rs 3038. So far 153 contracts have been traded. GOLDPETAL prices have moved up Rs 195, or 6.84 percent in the June series so far. MCX GOLDPETAL July contract was trading at Rs 3042 down Rs 1, or 0.03 percent. The GOLDPETAL rate touched an intraday high of Rs 3073 and an intraday low of Rs 3042. So far 15 contracts have been traded. GOLDPETAL prices have moved up Rs 64, or 2.15 percent in the July series so far.
At 10:46 hrs MCX GOLDPETAL May contract was trading at Rs 3059 up Rs 3, or 0.10 percent. The GOLDPETAL rate touched an intraday high of Rs 3059 and an intraday low of Rs 3052. So far 735 contracts have been traded. GOLDPETAL prices have moved up Rs 35, or 1.16 percent in the May series so far. MCX GOLDPETAL June contract was trading at Rs 3045 up Rs 5, or 0.16 percent. The GOLDPETAL rate touched an intraday high of Rs 3049 and an intraday low of Rs 3038. So far 153 contracts have been traded. GOLDPETAL prices have moved up Rs 195, or 6.84 percent in the June series so far. MCX GOLDPETAL July contract was trading at Rs 3042 down Rs 1, or 0.03 percent. The GOLDPETAL rate touched an intraday high of Rs 3073 and an intraday low of Rs 3042. So far 15 contracts have been traded. GOLDPETAL prices have moved up Rs 64, or 2.15 percent in the July series so far.
MCX Silvermic August contract rises
11:43 AM
alphaadvisory
Silvermic prices on MCX advanced on Friday. MCX Silvermic August contract was trading at Rs 42490 up Rs 58, or 0.14 percent.
At 10:47 hrs MCX SILVERMIC June contract was trading at Rs 41647 up Rs 60, or 0.14 percent. The SILVERMIC rate touched an intraday high of Rs 41661 and an intraday low of Rs 41510. So far 4716 contracts have been traded. SILVERMIC prices have moved down Rs 5631, or 11.91 percent in the June series so far. MCX SILVERMIC August contract was trading at Rs 42490 up Rs 58, or 0.14 percent. The SILVERMIC rate touched an intraday high of Rs 42500 and an intraday low of Rs 42372. So far 271 contracts have been traded. SILVERMIC prices have moved down Rs 7241, or 14.56 percent in the August series so far.
At 10:47 hrs MCX SILVERMIC June contract was trading at Rs 41647 up Rs 60, or 0.14 percent. The SILVERMIC rate touched an intraday high of Rs 41661 and an intraday low of Rs 41510. So far 4716 contracts have been traded. SILVERMIC prices have moved down Rs 5631, or 11.91 percent in the June series so far. MCX SILVERMIC August contract was trading at Rs 42490 up Rs 58, or 0.14 percent. The SILVERMIC rate touched an intraday high of Rs 42500 and an intraday low of Rs 42372. So far 271 contracts have been traded. SILVERMIC prices have moved down Rs 7241, or 14.56 percent in the August series so far.
Which region is driving gold demand across the world?
11:42 AM
alphaadvisory
WGC expects China's annual demand for gold in the form of jewellery, coins and bars is set to hit "at least 1,350 tonnes by 2017".
China's demand for gold is the highest in the world followed by India, says a World Gold Council report. WGC expects China's annual demand for gold in the form of jewellery, coins and bars is set to hit "at least 1,350 tonnes by 2017". Apart from China and India here's data of how much gold other countries consumed.
China's demand for gold is the highest in the world followed by India, says a World Gold Council report. WGC expects China's annual demand for gold in the form of jewellery, coins and bars is set to hit "at least 1,350 tonnes by 2017". Apart from China and India here's data of how much gold other countries consumed.
CHART: Gold vs Sensex between last Akshaya Tritiya and now
11:41 AM
alphaadvisory
Should the much anticipated global economic recovery materialize, equities will be the clear favourites.
After outperforming equities a handsome margin in FY13, gold lost much of its ‘safe haven’ sheen last year, and ended up lagging the Sensex. Prospects for the yellow metal, in comparison to equities, do not look too bright this year too. Investors are betting on a global economic recovery later this year. Also, the Fed is expected to reduce the pace of its monthly bond purchases going ahead. This in turn should strengthen the dollar. Should the much anticipated global economic recovery materialize, equities will be the clear favourites.
After outperforming equities a handsome margin in FY13, gold lost much of its ‘safe haven’ sheen last year, and ended up lagging the Sensex. Prospects for the yellow metal, in comparison to equities, do not look too bright this year too. Investors are betting on a global economic recovery later this year. Also, the Fed is expected to reduce the pace of its monthly bond purchases going ahead. This in turn should strengthen the dollar. Should the much anticipated global economic recovery materialize, equities will be the clear favourites.
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