January 2013 ~ Alpha Advisory

Thursday, January 31, 2013

Commodity Alert: Natural Gas Storage Forecast -202B, Previous -172B. Actual to be release at 9:00PM

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DATA TO WATCH 12:30pm EUR German Retail Sales m/m All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m 1:15pm EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 2:25pm EUR German Unemployment Change 6:00pm USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 7:00pm USD Unemployment Claims7:00pm USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 7:00pm USD Employment Cost Index q/q 7:00pm USD Personal Spending m/m 7:00pm USD Personal Income m/m 8:15pm USD Chicago PMI 9:00pm USD Natural Gas Stora...

10:57 AM

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Gold and platinum have been locked in a tight race for the past month, with both trading currently around $1,680 an ounce, prompting the question – which precious metal will win the race to $2,000? Analysts told CNBC that platinum, which is used as an industrial raw material and in making jewelry, has the edge over safe-haven gold. Production disruptions coupled with a pick-up in global auto production will drive platinum, widely used in catalytic converters for vehicles, to the key level before gold, said analysts. Closure of mines in South Africa, the biggest producer of the metal as led to supply constraints. Rising labor and electricity costs have squeezed the margins of producers, resulting in the termination of operations at several mines. Earlier this month, Anglo American...

10:36 AM

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(Reuters) - The euro climbed to a 14-month high, gold rallied and longer- dated U.S. Treasuries pared losses on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve left its monthly $85 billion bond-buying stimulus plan in place. The Fed said economic growth had stalled but indicated the pullback was likely temporary, describing the nation's job market as continuing its modest pace of improvement. It repeated a pledge to keep purchasing securities until the outlook for employment improves substantially. A report earlier in the day showing the U.S. economy contracted in the fourth quarter had already bolstered expectations the Fed would continue its easy monetary policy. GDP data, which showed the world's largest economy in the fourth quarter unexpectedly suffered its first decline since the...

10:30 AM

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With the US GDP contracting 0.1% in the fourth quarter and the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee sticking to asset purchase programs to the tune of $85 billion a month, gold prices gained. The futures on MCX is expected to trade positive today, analysts say. Spot gold prices in Singapore were seen trading at $1,676.90 an ounce at 9:46 a.m subsequent to rising as much as 1.2 percent Wednesday to $1,683.28. The price is the highest since January 4. “A reevaluation of the U.S. economic recovery combined with a reaffirmation of a highly accommodative monetary policy is gold-bullish,” Howard Wen, an analyst at HSBC Securities (USA) Inc., wrote in a note and was quoted by the Bloomberg as saying. “The so-called overall trajectory for gold and silver appears higher” Wen added. Meanwhile,...

10:24 AM

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TOKYO: Asian shares took a breather from recent rallies on Thursday though sentiment was underpinned by the U.S. Federal Reserve's pledge to retain its stimulus policy and on signs of stabilisation in the euro zone. Positive economic reports from Asia failed to lift markets as investors continued to assess regional earnings results and ahead of key data such as China's official manufacturing PMI and U.S. monthly nonfarm payrolls on Friday. The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.4 percent after rising 1.3 percent over the past two sessions to nearly an 18-month high. The index was set for a monthly gain of about 2.4 percent. Australian shares eased 0.4 percent, taking a breather from their 10-day winning streak, the longest in more...

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DATA TO WATCH 6:45pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 7:00pm USD Advance GDP q/q 7:00pm USD Advance GDP Price Index q/q 9:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 11:30pm EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks

6:17 PM

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3:35 PM

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Copper rose to a two-week high in London as economists forecast the U.S. will keep stimulating the economy until the first quarter of next year....

3:08 PM

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Asian markets finished broadly higher today with shares in Japan leading the region. The Nikkei 225 is up 2.28% while China's Shanghai Composite is up 1.00% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng is up 0.71%...

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Crude oil futures are trading near four month highs before the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting is coming out with its statement on monetary policy measures. The nation is the biggest consumer of crude oil and the FOMC meet may decide to continue with stimulus measures, analysts say, even as there could be dissent amongst members on continuing with asset purchase programs and maintaining record low interest rates. “The Federal Open Market Committee will renew its commitment to asset buying during a two-day meeting that began yesterday, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 44 economists.” Bloomberg News said in a report. The US Federal Reserve currently buys $45 bn in Treasury notes and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities on a monthly open-ended scheme....

10:54 AM

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COMMODITY CALL : 1st TGT ACHIVED IN NICKEL @ 949..BUY GIVN @ 943

2:22 PM

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2:09 PM

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You must have faith in yourself. You must believe that you can trade as well as anyone else.. This belief arises from doing your homework and staying disciplined in your system. Understanding that it is not you, that it is your system that wins and loses based on market action will keep the negative self talk at bay. You must have faith in your method. You must study the historical performance of your trading method so you can see how it works on charts. Also it is possible to quantify and back test mechanical trading systems for specific historical performance in different kinds of markets. You must have faith in your risk management. You must manage your risk per trade so it brings you to a 0% mathematical probability of ruin. A 1% to 2% of total capital at risk...

1:58 PM

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Gold probably will stay above $1,630 an ounce in the next several months and may rally to at least $1,800 before starting a decline in the second half of this year, according to technical analysis by Societe Generale SA. The $1,630 area consists of the highs reached last summer, support levels from a declining trend channel since October and a rising support line since May, the bank said. If prices climb above the $1,703-$1,706 area, they’ll probably rally and peak between $1,800 and $1,921 in the second half, before starting a gradual decline to as low as $1,500 by next year, it predicts. Bullion rose a 12th straight year in 2012, the best run in at least nine decades, as central banks from Europe to China pledged more stimulus to bolster economic growth. While gold failed to set a new...

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The Reserve Bank of India on Tuesday cut both repo rate and Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR). While the repo rate was cut by 25 bps to 7.75 per cent, the CRR was also slashed by 25 bps to 4 per cent. The reduction in CRR will infuse Rs 18,000 crore into the banking system, said RBI Governor D Subbarao while announcing the cut. The RBI also trimmed 2012-13 growth estimate to 5.5 per cent from 5.8 per cent. Video Photo Gallery The Reserve Bank of India has also downgraded 2012-13 growth estimate to 5.5 per cent from 5.8 per cent. It also cut end-March 2013 inflation projection to 6.8 per cent from 7.5 per cent earlier. Subbarao said...

11:28 AM

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India's central bank reduced its policy interest rate by a widely expected 25 basis points on Tuesday, taking comfort from cooling inflation as it made the first cut in nine months to support an economy headed for its slowest growth in a decade. The Reserve Bank of India cut its key repo rate to 7.75 percent, as forecast by a Reuters poll. (Read More: Indian Finance Minister Makes Case for Ratings Upgrade) The RBI unexpectedly also reduced the cash reserve ratio,the share of deposits banks must keep with the central bank by 25 bps to 4.00 percent, which will infuse an additional 180 billion rupees into the banking system. The central bank said there was increasing likelihood of inflation remaining rangebound around current levels heading into 2013/14 fiscal year starting April....

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11:06 AM

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Reserve Bank of India, India's central bank, may cut the repo-rate or the interest that banks get for the funds parked with RBI, in its monetary policy review meeting today, according to Martin Patrick, a Kochi based economist. “Given that headline inflation may get contained, the RBI may resort to rate cuts to the tune of 0.25% to 0.5%.” he said. “Headline inflation may not exceed 7% for the short-term, that is at least for the next three months.” he added. “India's GDP growth rate is moderating, and if the rates are cut now, the measure would boost the industry.” Martin Patrick noted. “If they do not cut the rates now, then they would be missing out on an opportunity.” he said. India’s economic growth is likely to fall below 5.8% in 2012-13 while inflation is expected to moderate...

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Silver futures to trade on bullish note, support at 29.43: HY markets

4:04 PM

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Silver closed lower on Friday and the low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastic and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.If it extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been poste...

2:37 PM

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Mumbai, Jan 28: A benchmark index for Indian equities markets was trading flat Monday afternoon, a day ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) third quarter monetary policy review. Automobile, information technology (IT) and bank stocks rallied. However, oil and gas, capital goods, and consumer durables stocks plummeted.The BSE Sensex, which opened at 20,129.00 points, was at 20,084.57 points around 12.30 p.m. -- down 18.96 points or 0.09 percent from its previous close at 20,103.53 points.The BSE Sensex touched an intra-day high of 20,172.45 points and a low of 20,062.79 points. The BSE midcap index was up 3.36 points, while the smallcap index was higher by 30.38 points.The wider 50-scrip S&P CNX Nifty of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) was trading up 3.55 points or...

2:33 PM

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1:03 PM

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The global economy faces fewer headwinds in 2013 compared with last year and will likely grow a modest 3.5%, participants at the 43rd World Economic Annual Meeting were told in Davos, Switzerland. But Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund (IMF), described the recovery as “fragile and timid” because the Eurozone is prone to political crisis and slow decision-making processes. “Some good policy decisions have been made in the various corners of the world, including by central banks,” said Lagarde. “In 2013, they have to keep the momentum.” She called on Europe to operationalize the new tools policy-makers have recently devised, including Europe’s banking union. Lagarde also credited the United States with making significant progress on fiscal consolidation,...

1:01 PM

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Gold was little changed in Asia Monday as technical indicators pointed to near-term weakness while some modest physical demand helped provide a floor to prices. At 0429 GMT, spot gold was at $1,659.15 a troy ounce, down 15 cents from its previous close. "The physical demand [for gold] is less than what we had last year,"...

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11:32 AM

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Scripts R1 R2 S1 S2 Copper(Aug) 428.1 431.2 422.7 420.3 Crude(July) 4794 4855 4692 4651 Natural gas(July) 164.7 172.2 153.17 149.03 Lead(July) 104.7 105.4 103.3 102.6 Zinc(July) 104 104.6 102.6 102 Nickel(July) 930 940 908 900 Aluminum(July) 106.3 107 105 104 Menthe oil(may) 1360.9 1401.7 1324.9 1284.3 ...

11:27 AM

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US natural gas production disruptions due to freeze-offs are estimated to be as big as 1 Bcf/d in January, roughly the size of the m/m decline in production compared to December 2012 levels. With that said, as temperatures start to rise in the Western region of the country, the markets have already observed a recovery in production in the last week through pipeline scrape data, Barclays said in a report Prices at the moment are also supported by y/y supply shortfalls largely due to freeze-offs that shut-in wells mainly in the producing regions in the Rockies. This week’s storage came in near consensus and brought stocks below the 3 Tcf level. Given weather forecast for the rest of January, storage could be heading back below 2 Tcf if February and March experience normal weather....

11:16 AM

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ET Now: Do you think the best part of the pre-budget move is behind us or given the kind of environment we are in markets are on course to touch a new high before budget? Vikas Khemani: I would tend to think that probably we are on the course to touch new high before budget or around budget. I do not agree before budget or after budget but in my whole hypothesis around that is global environment is fairly good, global liquidity scenario is very good and government is all set for a sort of all out to sort of make reform process a reality and they are doing step by step most of the things that they have promised and I would tend to think that budget would be a good document in terms of outlining fiscal consolidation, in terms of showing reasonably good amount of growth, most of...

11:15 AM

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Gold traded little changed on Monday, struggling to break away from a two-week low hit in the previous session, as a brighter global economic outlook dampened gold's appeal a safe haven. Platinum group metals fared better, with spot palladium hitting its highest in more than 16 months. Platinum metals have industrial applications and benefit from an improved economic mood. Signs that the euro zone crisis is stabilising and the U.S. recovery is gaining traction drove investors to the higher-yielding equity market, sending Wall Street up for the eighth straight day on Friday. "The weakness in gold may continue in the short run as weak technicals and upbeat data from key economies put pressure on prices," said Li Ning, an analyst at Shanghai CIFCO Futures. "Investors would...

11:02 AM

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NEW DELHI: Maruti Suzuki India LtdBSE 1.53 % surged over 2 per cent in early trade on Monday after most brokerages upgraded the stock and raised its target prices by 10-30 per cent. After gaining over 4 per cent on Friday, the country's largest car maker rose over 2 per cent to its fresh record high of Rs 1634. At 10:00 am, MarutiBSE 1.53 % was trading 1.8 per cent higher at Rs 1629.30. The stock surged to its 52-week high of Rs 1634 in intraday trade today. UBS upgraded its ratings on Maruti Suzuki India Ltd to "buy" from "neutral," and raised its price target to Rs 2,000 from Rs 1,500, translating into a gain of over 30 per cent from its previous target price. According to UBS, the weakening Japanese yen over the past three months would boost earnings. Maruti Suzuki is...

10:52 AM

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LONDON: Coppertraders are bullish for a third consecutive week as the fastest expansion in Chinese manufacturing in two years boosts confidence that the biggest buyer of the metal is leading a global recovery. Eleven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to rise next week, six were bearish and a further five were neutral. ETF Securities said $28 million went into its ETFS Physical Copper exchange-traded product last week, the most since its introduction in 2010. About $5.8 trillion was added to the value of global equities since November as China accelerated for the first time in two years and central banks from the US to Japan pledged more action to bolster growth. The US is in its best shape for two years, a global poll of Bloomberg subscribers...

CRUDE OIL INVENTORY WILL RELEASE 2MARO AT 9.30PM AS U.S. MARKET WAS CLOSED ON MONDAY. EXPECTED INVENTORY IS 2.8M AGAINST -1.0M PREVIOUS

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3:59 PM

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Crude oil demand growth in China would reach an average 460 thousand b/d in 2013 as a result of healthy import growth, rise in domestic demand, product exports to regional consumption centres and a switch in appetite by teapot refineries from fuel oil to crude oil, stated London based Barclays. Chinese crude oil imports were pegged at 5.58 mb/d in December (increasing by 8% y/y). This extends the growth trajectory seen since October, with Q4 averaging a growth of 8% y/y, marking a steady recovery when compared to the 7% y/y average decline seen over August and September. Refinery runs also maintained a steady pace of growth in December (up 10% y/y) to a record 10.18 mb/d. ...

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LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — Major currencies stood their ground in early Wednesday trading, but with some analysts tipping upside for the Japanese yen and downside for the euro. By midday in East Asia, the U.S. dollar had steadied after its Tuesday decline — which was fueled in part by a surge in the yen — to move sideways. The two main dollar-tracking benchmarks were mixed, with the ICE dollar index DXY +0.03% slipping marginally to 79.881 from late Tuesday’s 79.892, while the WSJ Dollar Index XX:BUXX ...

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12:57 PM

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Gold prices traded higher by 0.15% against the USD in the 24 hour period ending 23:00GMT, at 1692.95 per ounce, after the Bank of Japan indicated that it would introduce open-ended asset purchases from 2014, thereby boosting speculation that a revival of the economy would raise demand for the precious metal. However, investors speculated that gains in precious metal may be capped, amid a lack of fresh catalysts, as investors also opted for riskier assets against the backdrop of a global economic recovery. In the Asian session, at GMT0400, Gold is trading at 1693.50, marginally higher from yesterday’s close. Gold is expected to find support at 1688.12, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1682.73. Gold is expected to find its first resistance at 1697.52,...

12:57 PM

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Silver prices rose 0.54% to the USD32.21 per ounce during the 24 hours ending 23:00GMT, taking cues from yellow metal to trade on a positive note. Also industrial metals and base metals traded in the green after easing by the Bank of Japan and expectations for more positive data in the US and China. With the global economy on the mend, market participants speculated that the need for industrial metals would continue to grow. In the Asian session, at GMT0400, Silver is trading at 32.17, 0.11% lower from yesterday’s close. Silver is expected to find support at 31.88, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 31.59. Silver is expected to find its first resistance at 32.40, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 32.63. The white metal is trading...

12:55 PM

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Oil prices were down in Asian trade today as investors locked in profits from recent gains. New York's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in March, was down 16 cents at $96.52 a barrel and Brent North Sea crude for March delivery shed 20...

12:55 PM

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Greece has brought criminal charges against the official responsible for measuring the country's debt, thereby calling into question the validity of its 172 billion euros second bailout by the EU and International Monetary Fund. Andreas Georgiou, head of the independent statistical agency Elstat, and two senior officials are accused of undermining the country's "national interests" by inflating the 2009 budget deficit figure used as the benchmark for successive austerity packages. The three statistical experts face criminal charges of making false statements and corrupt practices, a judicial official said, adding that if found guilty they could serve prison terms of five to 10 years. They have denied any wrongdoing. Mr Georgiou denied Greek media reports that he had resigned from Elstat,...

12:39 PM

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Physical gold demand has been unusually strong for this time of year, with “good buying” from Southeast Asia, according to Standard Bank Plc. The Standard Bank Gold Physical Flow Index signaled demand climbed to the highest since November, the bank wrote in an e- mailed report yesterday. Purchases typically pick up toward the end of the year amid religious festivals and the wedding season in India. Gold reached a four-week high of $1,696.28 an ounce in London on Jan. 17. India, the biggest buyer in 2011, raised taxes on gold imports two days ago to reduce a record current-account deficit and to moderate demand. Standard Chartered Plc said earlier this month that its gold shipments to India soared on mounting concern the duty would be raised. While gold has gained for the past 12 years, the...

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12:28 PM

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New Delhi, Jan 23 (PTI) Zinc futures prices today edged up by 0.50 per cent to Rs 110.55 per kg amid a firm global trend and better domestic demand, as speculators enlarged positions. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, zinc for delivery in January edged up by 55 paise, or 0.50 per cent, to Rs 110.55 per kg, with a business turnover of 2,115 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in February traded higher by 55 paise, or 0.50 per cent, to Rs 111.25 per kg, with a business turnover of 203 lots. Marketmen said improved demand in the spot market amid a firming trend in base metals overseas, supported the rise in metal prices at futures trad...

12:26 PM

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New Delhi, Jan 23 (PTI) Cardamom prices edged higher by Rs 6.50 to Rs 1,075.50 per kg in futures trade today as speculators enlarged positions, driven by seasonal demand in the spot markets. Besides, tight stocks position in the spot markets following restricted arrivals from the growing belts, also supported the upside in cardamom prices at futures trade. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, cardamom for February contract rose by Rs 6.50, or 0.60 per cent, to Rs 1,075.50 per kg, with a trading volume of 698 lots. The spice for delivery in March contracts traded Rs 5.20, or 0.47 per cent, higher at Rs 1,108.90 per kg, with a business volume of 225 lots. Traders said rising demand in spot market on account of marriage season against restricted arrivals from producing regions, mainly pushed...

12:26 PM

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New Delhi, Jan 23 (PTI) Supported by pick-up in spot demand and restricted supplies, potato futures prices today rose by another Rs 7.30 to Rs 812.60 per quintal. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, potato for delivery in April traded higher by Rs 7.30, or 0.90 per cent, to Rs 812.60 per quintal, with a business turnover of 12 lots. The potato for March contract also inched up by Rs 4.90, or 0.60 per cent, to Rs 820 per quintal, with a trading volume of 45 lots. Analysts said improved demand against less arrivals from growing regions mainly helped potato prices to trade higher at futures tra...

12:25 PM

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New Delhi: In what could be a major blow to consumers, major mobile service providers, Bharti Airtel, Vodafone and Idea Cellular have hike call tariffs by almost 100 percent. As per media reports, Airtel and Idea have hiked the tariffs by almost a double while Vodafone has also increased the voice call rates steeply. While the country’s leading mobile service provided Bharti Airtel has doubled the call rates from Rupee 1 per minute to Rs 2 per minute, Idea has hiked its call rates from 1.2 paise per second to 2 paise per second, said the report. No detail of Vodafone’s hike in tariff was given though reports claimed the company has hiked its call tariff....

12:21 PM

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More than 1500 world leaders have reached Davos to attend the annual World Economic Forum. The theme for the summit this year is 'resilient dynamis...

COMING UP DATA TO WATCH

5:08 PM

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8:30pm - USD Existing Home Sales, 8:30pm -USD Richmond Manufacturing Index, 11:30pm- EUR ECB President Draghi Spea...

3:53 PM

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Copper prices in India’s Multi Commodities Exchange (MCX) are witnessing a sideway-to-down trend. MCX Copper trade volume was seen rising today on account of weakness in prices. Rise in the Copper inventories has pushed the demand of the commodity downwards. MCX Copper is trading around 435-440 Rs/kg levels. On Tuesday trade, Copper February contract rose to a high of 438.65 Rs/kg and is expected to trade in downtrend in the near term. Support is now seen at Rs 432-433 levels and resistance at 439-441, analysts said. US Copper is trading in a sideways-up phenomenon, rise in Copper inventories and consequent fall in prices has pushed the demand of the metal. Climatic conditions have also reflected the international markets. US Copper is trading around 3.67 $/ton levels on Tuesday. On daily...

3:50 PM

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BEIJING – Chinese steel demand is expected to rise by 3.1 percent in 2013, 0.6 percentage points higher than last year as the economy recovers, the country's steel industry association said on Tuesday. But the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) said in its regular market report that while demand was set to improve this year, oversupply problems would continue to limit price increases and eat into steel firm earnings. CISA said that the recent surge in imported iron ore prices had put steel firms under heavy pressure, with the rise in costs "far exceeding" any increase in domestic steel product prices. Chinese crude steel output reached a record 716.5 million metric tons in 2012, but the growth rate of 3.1 percent was 5.8 percentage points slower than in the previous year as the slowing...

2:40 PM

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Deutsche Bank estimates the replacement battery sector accounts for 43% of global lead consumption. In China, it expects the demand growth of auto replacement battery is likely to account for the lion and rsquo;s share of lead demand growth in the coming years as the vehicle fleet continues to ris...

2:08 PM

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London 22/01/2013 - The metals put in a fairly quiet day yesterday, which considering the US was closed is not so surprising. Base metals closed down an average of 0.3 percent, with nickel down the most with a 0.7 percent fall to $17,430, copper was down 0.4 percent to $8,055, while tin managed to hold in positive territory, closing at $25,044. Precious metals faired better with a 0.3 percent average gain, gold was up 0.4 percent at $1,689.40, while palladium was off 0.6 percent at $714.00 as profit-taking seems to have capped the upside for now. This morning the metals are up across the board with average gains of around 0.4 percent, copper leads the way with a 0.9 percent gain to $8,125.50, while aluminium is the laggard as it is up just $1 at $2,046. On the precious metals...

1:59 PM

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Shares in jewellery makers like Titan Industries and Gitanjali Germs traded with over 2 per cent losses on Tuesday. Most other big jewellery retailers saw selling pressure in a flat market today. The government on Monday raised the import duty on gold and platinum by 2 per cent to 6 per cent, the second such increase in less than one year. The government wants to discourage gold buying as the precious metal is the biggest contributor to the import bill after crude oil. Most analysts, however, attributed the selling in these stocks to a knee jerk reaction. "Given India's penchant for gold for weddings and other religious ceremonies, a sharp fall in volumes is unlikely, in our view," global brokerage Nomura said, adding that "the hike in the gold import duties will only shift gold shipments...

1:25 PM

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1:22 PM

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The hike sums up to around Rs 60,000 (approx) per kilogram of gold. The government's move to hike the customs duty from 4 to 6 percent will have a loud impact on the Bullion sector. The hike sums up to around Rs 60,000 (approx) per kilogram of gold. To be clear, with this duty hike a difference of 7 percent between the international and domestic price of the yellow metal is evident. This may lead to rise illegal channels and malicious activities with respect to importing gold and related products like jewellery etc., in the country. In turn it will lead to an increase in unemployment among the skilled artisans of the country (around 1-2 million people depend on this sector to earn their livelihood) as well the businesses of local jewelers across the country. The government should harness...

1:00 PM

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Geneva: The global jobless queue will stretch to more than 200 million people in 2013, the International Labour Organization (ILO) said in its annual report on Tuesday, repeating a warning it has made at the start of each of the last six years. The UN jobs watchdog estimates unemployment will rise by 5.1 million in 2013 to more than 202 million, and by another 3 million in 2014, following a rise of 4.2 million in 2012. If those predictions are right, global unemployment will hit a record. But the ILO has revised its jobless figures down each year as the number of those giving up the job hunt altogether swells, meaning they are no longer classed as unemployed. A Reuters analysis of previous ILO reports shows that estimates of unemployment made in each of the last six years have subsequently...

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